TD 8 & 9 formation followed my methodology

[Jim Hughes]

I just wanted to point out to people that both TD 8 & TD 9 formed under my forecasting guidelines that I have spoken about.

I list data below.

I have no idea if certain people are following these things. I have been very busy on the home front so this has limited my time to be able to post.

I am also currently gathering data so that I can post a new subject matter dealing with the ENSO, and some other things, and it's possible relationship with Space weather.

I think it may open up some eyes...even skeptics....

I hope to have it all together by Saturday or Sunday...I Hope ...I know I have mentioned things before and I did not post ...but I have told my family that this one's very important to me ...so I need free time.....Hard to do with children though.


The Stanford Mean Magnetic Field reading has been positive since 7/29 and it is currently in a weakening state after peaking a couple of days ago. This is a forecasting guideline that I have talked about previously.

8/1 + 34

8/2 + 48

8/3 + 41

8/4 + 35


Here are the solar wind speed numbers from the ACE satellite...ACE2 1 hour data averages..

I give the five hour smoothed solar wind speed centered around formation time. The five hour smoothed exactly 24 hours earlier and the highest 1 hr reading at anytime during the previous 48 & 72 hours respectively.



TD 8 formed 8/2/21z

8/2/21z Five hour smoothed solar wind speed .... 478 km/sec

8/1/21z. Five hour smoothed solar wind speed ... 537 km/sec

Highest 1 hour average 48 & 72 hours earlier ......612 & 612


TD 9 formed 8/4/21z

8/4/21z Five hour smoothed solar wind speed.... 409 km/sec

8/3/21z Five hour smoothed solar wind speed.... 449 km/sec

Highest 1 hour average 48 & 72 hours earlier.... 489 & 553


Remember I claim that the solar wind speed is important and it tends to be diminishing and below 500 km/sec at formation time.

There are a couple of other factors also. Read prior posts....



Jim

[gigabite]

Hi, Jim

Looks like they smoothed this site. Yes, this is very nice, fast to.

http://home.att.net/~northzero/080405ATL.gif

As the Moon passed over the Atlantic turbulence builds up and then relaxes. This increase in turbulence pulls moisture into the upper atmosphere setting up several conditions that some times intensifying tropical storms.

[Jim Hughes]

Hey Steve...I was wondering what happen to some of the TWC people This place is nice. I see you joined last year... wish I had known about the place.

Have you been trying to follow space weather still ? I was wondering about your moon relationships....

I guess the other place is history now.

[gigabite]

Sure, it is all connected. On August 10, 2005 Jupiter and the Moon will align (1) on the node there might be some shaking going on. The atmosphere is still wanting for water vapor. Being year one from the Jupiter’s perihelion the global water vapor seems to be picking up. I don’t think the Mississippi Basin will see any rainfall records for another few years. The out flow has been heating up the Gulf. I think that helped kick off the Gulf Hurricane season.



1. Celestial Navigation Data for 2005 Aug 10 at 8:05:50 UT
Almanac Data
Object GHA DEC
SUN 300 07.3 N15 29.9
MOON 246 21.5 S 6 00.1
VENUS 267 22.3 N 4 09.6
JUPITER 246 21.5 S 4 43.6

I work other message boards, and I have been trying to get my stock portfolio straightened out, so I don't spend as much time with this project. I only watch the New Moon 9 days for weather. September will be interesting in the Atlantic this year.

.

[kevin]

September will be interesting in the Atlantic this year.

September is almost always interesting in the Atlantic.

[Jim Hughes]

September will be interesting in the Atlantic this year.

September is almost always interesting in the Atlantic.

That it is right Kevin and I agree with you 100%. That is why I have always tried to research storms that formed either extremely early or extremely late.

Some current space weather data was not around long ago so I had to use proxy data sometimes. This was either something that I had come up with or somebody Else's. I found nothing wrong with this since I was trying to perfect this methodology.



Jim

[gigabite]

September will be interesting in the Atlantic this year.

September is almost always interesting in the Atlantic.

As the latitude of the New Moon gets south of the ITCZ my research shows that the atmospheric dynamics for storm development expands. Every year until 2012 the date of the New Moon at North 10 gets earlier in the season. This year it happens that the longitude of the New Moon sub point is in the Atlantic at the same time the latitude crosses the ITCZ. The Sun’s latitude is close to that of the moon at this time(1). This means that alignment vectors will transmit more force.

Of course there is the need for water vapor to be present for turbulence to translate it upward. The characteristic that as the New Moon’s latitude approaches the Equator so does the Full Moon’s will cause tidal element factors to increase moisture along the Equator. Setting the stage for September in the tropics.

1. Celestial Navigation Data for 2005 Sep 3 at 16:10:00 UT


Object GHA Dec
SUN 62 41.4 N 7 20.8
MOON 62 41.3 N10 28.5

[gigabite]

Celestial Navigation Data for 2005 Aug 6 at 16:12:00 UT
MOON 43 49.5 N14 22.3

http://home.att.net/~northzero/09L080605.gif

When the moon's path passes south of a storm the storm intensifies.

[Jim Hughes]

September will be interesting in the Atlantic this year.

September is almost always interesting in the Atlantic.

As the latitude of the New Moon gets south of the ITCZ my research shows that the atmospheric dynamics for storm development expands. Every year until 2012 the date of the New Moon at North 10 gets earlier in the season. This year it happens that the longitude of the New Moon sub point is in the Atlantic at the same time the latitude crosses the ITCZ. The Sun’s latitude is close to that of the moon at this time(1). This means that alignment vectors will transmit more force.

Of course there is the need for water vapor to be present for turbulence to translate it upward. The characteristic that as the New Moon’s latitude approaches the Equator so does the Full Moon’s will cause tidal element factors to increase moisture along the Equator. Setting the stage for September in the tropics.

1. Celestial Navigation Data for 2005 Sep 3 at 16:10:00 UT


Object GHA Dec
SUN 62 41.4 N 7 20.8
MOON 62 41.3 N10 28.5

I will try and pay close attention to this. I never monitor satellite/radar data unless we have something locally but I wll try during this time frame. The only images I ever see are from TWC...or here now thanks to the way this site is.

[Swimdude]

This is complicated, yet fascinating.