Personal Brief Discussion 2 on 09L.IRENE

[DoctorHurricane2003]

S2K Disclaimer: The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Personal Disclaimer: In addition, you may find the official information at the NHC website at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Personal Note: Yes I know I have been slacking in the forecasts, and I apologize. As I get settled with my new computer, I should update more frequently. Also, the reason for the issuance of this discussion now instead of its normal 9 PM time is due to the computer arriving today, as well as setup, etc. Also, my graphics will be unavailable for 1-5 Days as I upgrade the graphics packages with my new computer. A 120 Hour Intensity forecast will be available, but a position forecast will not be available until the upgrades are complete. I apologize!

TUE 09.08.2005 1255 PM CDT

For the past 24 hours, Irene has been shifting with the convective blowups. Right now, it is a tropical depression with 30 KT winds. She is looking quite sheared at the moment, but has become better organized throughout the day. Irene has been moving in a general westward movement the past 12 hours, with the last advisory at 280 degrees. In terms of future movement, I expect this general westward movement to continue for the next 24, perhaps 36 hours, afterwards a more wnw motion should resume. Computer model outputs have been consistently shifting towards the left with this system, with the majority of models now expecting a continuous wnw motion through the forecast period, with many bending westward in response to a subtropical high building back in after the passage of a weakness. I now expect this system will NOT be turned northward by the weakness moving into the western Atlantic, but only affect its track to the wnw, perhaps as much as 300 degrees at times. Could Irene hit the US? Its quite possible, but it is difficult to say if, where, and at what intensity it will be...although I have my ideas which I will not output at this time. In terms of intensity, which is quite difficult to forecast in this scenario, it appears that in about 48 hours or so, Irene will move into a more favorable environment conducive to more strengthening, but it is difficult to say just how much strengthening will take place with Irene. I'm going for a moderate forecast, calling for Irene to be a minimal hurricane in 120 hours, although, this could be well below the actual depending on many factors.

INTENSITY FORECAST:
INITIAL: 30 KT
12 HR: 30 KT
24 HR: 35 KT
36 HR: 35 KT
48 HR: 40 KT
72 HR: 50 KT
96 HR: 60 KT
120 HR: 65 KT