Has the 2005 season peaked already?

[Stormcenter]

Man it sure seems like things have quieted down alot
since July. Yeah I know it's ONLY August 11th but I wonder
if we will actually see 18-20 storms as NOAA and Gray are predicting. Has the season peaked already? Right now 15 storms looks like a good number for 2005. IMO

[x-y-no]

lol ... no, it hasn't peaked.

[du1st]

lol ... no, it hasn't peaked.

No way dude.

[dwg71]

I would say if we get to Sept 1 and still only have 2 hurricanes and somewhere around 10 named storms, people will change their tunes. I think 15 is a reasonable number. 20 wont happen imo.

[Andrew92]

Um, despite 9 named storms, only 2 have become hurricanes. I don't think we've peaked yet, sorry to say.

-Andrew92

[dwg71]

Also it depends on what your definition of peak is. If its activity, you've seen the peak. If its intensity, we probably have not.

[sma10]

I would say if we get to Sept 1 and still only have 2 hurricanes and somewhere around 10 named storms, people will change their tunes. I think 15 is a reasonable number. 20 wont happen imo.

I think 15 is too low. 15 means we will have only 6 more named storms from here on out. The only season in the past 10 years that has performed that miserably from August 10th on was the miserable el nino year of 1997. If you look up the stats from the past 10 years it is not unreasonable that we can still get at least 10 more storms this season.

[Trader Ron]

I never thought we would break the record. I still don't. Seventeen, Eighteen storms seems to be the number for 2005.

I predicted eleven named storms. Think i'm a smidge low?

[sma10]

I never thought we would break the record. I still don't. Seventeen, Eighteen storms seems to be the number for 2005.

I predicted eleven named storms. Think i'm a smidge low?

Just a smidge We may have that number by late next week.

[Trader Ron]

I never thought we would break the record. I still don't. Seventeen, Eighteen storms seems to be the number for 2005.

I predicted eleven named storms. Think i'm a smidge low?

Just a smidge We may have that number by late next week.

Next week?

[WindRunner]

I never thought we would break the record. I still don't. Seventeen, Eighteen storms seems to be the number for 2005.

I predicted eleven named storms. Think i'm a smidge low?

Just a smidge We may have that number by late next week.

Next week?

Next week.

[Patrick99]

Perhaps we have seen the peak intensity, with Dennis and Emily. I think we'd need an environment consisting of something other than weak highs, dry air, and persistent ULLs.

[sma10]

I never thought we would break the record. I still don't. Seventeen, Eighteen storms seems to be the number for 2005.

I predicted eleven named storms. Think i'm a smidge low?

Just a smidge We may have that number by late next week.

Next week?

Well, hey, let's see We already have nine.....I don't think it's impossible that we can have two more by late next week.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

you guys are so funny! come on now, every season has its cycles we go through with a couple of slow weeks then a couple of busy weeks. it's always been like that. so we have 2 "slow weeks" right now. think about it... if by "slow" you mean that we only have 2 named systems and nearly uninterrupted named storm days, then I guess we are "slow" right now! -and remember too that these storms got going despite lots of SAL around and starting as early Cape Verde systems and against the MJO cycle! If anything, I would think you guys would be touting how amazing that all is! -that despite all that was going against ANY formation, they did anyway!
Now for the "fun" part... the SAL has finally looked like it is going to relax and the MJO is getting favorable in the Atlantic again. You can see that the tropics are starting to get lined up to cross africa.
-Plus we have some current ongoing possibilities in the next few active waves coming across the water right now!

So if this is "slow" - just watch out for when we will be in the active part of the season! -I bet we see 5 simultaneously named systems thsi year... remember 1995? -well this is supposed to be just as busy if not moreso!

[TS Zack]

ULL's are going bye bye! Dry Air is gone in the Western Atlantic. Anyway, Dry Air may inhibit development but a little dry air will not kill everything. Wave Train becoming active.

In a week or two we will be crying for another break/

[dwg71]

ULL's are going bye bye! Dry Air is gone in the Western Atlantic. Anyway, Dry Air may inhibit development but a little dry air will not kill everything. Wave Train becoming active.

In a week or two we will be crying for another break/

The wave train has been active for a month now....

[linkerweather]

just wanted to bump this thread

[Brent]

just wanted to bump this thread

[LAwxrgal]

I wonder
if we will actually see 18-20 storms as NOAA and Gray are predicting. Has the season peaked already? Right now 15 storms looks like a good number for 2005. IMO

Er, as of now we've got 16 and there quite possibly could be 17 by the end of the day.

How's that crow pie tasting?

[tracyswfla]

Chuga Chuga Choo Chooo!