The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Tropical Depression 10 Advisory 2
8:00 PM PDT Aug 13 2005 (11:00 PM EDT or 3Z Aug 14 2005)
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For official forecasts...please refer to the NHC. This is an independent product.
Please remember...tropical cyclones can be very unpredictable and can make sudden changes and/or shifts in both track and intensity.
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TD 10 continues to be sheared badly by the upper-level trough. As stated in the previous discussion...TD 10 may dissipate in the next 24 hours...but this is looking less likely...as its outflow channel is good...and SST's are much more favorable than what occurred with Irene. Evidence suggests that once the trough moves out...the shear will abate...but will stay conservative due to uncertainties in the current location...how fast the trough lifts out...the dry air surrounding the system...and the eventual track of the system. It should be noted the forecast is well below the SHIPS and GFDL...which make the system a hurricane by the end of the
period.
The track forecast is similar to the previous one. The trough that is producing the shear should also induce a northwestward component to the track for the first 48 hours...but as it moves away...the subtropical ridge should fill back in...steering the system back to the west-northwest.
Forecaster Tang
Hour Position Intensity
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Initial 15.0N 45.5W 30 kt
12 hr 15.9N 46.4W 35 kt
24 hr 16.9N 47.4W 35 kt
36 hr 17.9N 48.6W 40 kt
48 hr 18.8N 50.3W 40 kt
72 hr 20.5N 53.2W 45 kt
96 hr 21.8N 56.8W 45 kt
120 hr 22.6N 61.0W 50 kt
Track:
Comments and suggestions welcomed as always.
(Though I doubt there'll be many)
...thanks for telling me that...changed it! 