NEW Video Update-Naso's New Numbers/Irene

[Anonymous]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Here it is, 11am info, no big change, Hurricane Irene still a powerful Category 1, now 90 mph:::

http://radio.nhcwx.com/flghchp/displayi ... m=2&pos=45

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I say about 17 named storms/5 hurricanes/3 Majors.

Reason is the SAL is having some real big surges. I don't think we will be able to have any more then another 7 to 8 more storms. The SAL is having outbreaks like every few weeks.

Tropical depression 10 should be upgraded tomarrow. Even so the freaking shear is pushing its convection just north of the LLC. But once the shear go's down then boom the freaking SAL. I just don't know about forecasting above 20 storms. Its very risky. In also the models show the Eastern Pacific becoming more Active. If so that could take more energy from the Atlantic.

[WindRunner]

Great graphic! I love the cut-off head shot

ahh, you took it off. oh well.

[Anonymous]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Here it is, 11am info, no big change, Hurricane Irene still a powerful Category 1, now 90 mph:::

http://radio.nhcwx.com/flghchp/displayi ... m=2&pos=45

[Scorpion]

Matt you predict 1 more major in mid August, when we have a month to the peak?

[dhweather]

FIVE more majors? That's bold, but certainly not out of the question.

[WindRunner]

yeah, I'm glad I don't live anywhere near the tropics with that forecast, espcially since it could come true

[Anonymous]

I think:::

June- 0 Majors
July- 2 Majors
Aug- 1 major
Sept-2-3 majors
Oct/Nov- 1-2 majors

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Look at the SAL yet another surge of it into the Eastern Atlatnic.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html

Also go over to the wind shear maps. It shows the "TUTT" is strong which centereds it self through the Caribbean into the Central Atlantic. Its powerful. It reminds me a little of 2000. Even so most of the Atlatnic besides the Eastern seems not to have much SAL expect that to change. Even in a favable MJO it is getting just down right unfavable.

We may have 2 more majors in September. But thats pushing it.

[Stormcenter]

Look at the SAL yet another surge of it into the Eastern Atlatnic.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html

Also go over to the wind shear maps. It shows the "TUTT" is strong which centereds it self through the Caribbean into the Central Atlantic. Its powerful. It reminds me a little of 2000. Even so most of the Atlatnic besides the Eastern seems not to have much SAL expect that to change. Even in a favable MJO it is getting just down right unfavable.

We may have 2 more majors in September. But thats pushing it.

Hmmmm we will just have to wait and see if you are correct.
By the way I'm not into the SAL thing so I'm a little skeptical.

[Anonymous]

We are approching a burst

[wxboy]

definately. This season is shaping up to be quite active. For the entire Atlantic. It is by no means winding down. I could easily see 5 more major hurricanes.

[senorpepr]

Look at the SAL yet another surge of it into the Eastern Atlatnic.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html

Also go over to the wind shear maps. It shows the "TUTT" is strong which centereds it self through the Caribbean into the Central Atlantic. Its powerful. It reminds me a little of 2000. Even so most of the Atlatnic besides the Eastern seems not to have much SAL expect that to change. Even in a favable MJO it is getting just down right unfavable.

We may have 2 more majors in September. But thats pushing it.

However, even in 2000 we had 15 named storms... of which 13 formed after this point in the season. It's been mentioned a few times in S2K already and it's something that I tend to look at in terms of global interaction -- the WPAC had a "burst" a few weeks ago. Even the CPAC had a "burst" (although it was only a depression, it's more of a burst than nothing). Now the EPAC is getting over it's burst. I'd believe that next week will begin a burst for the Alantic, just in time for the peak of the season.

To go back to 2000, 13 named storms formed after this point in the season. Add that to the nine we've already seen in the Atlantic, that makes 22 named storms. There is no evidence that I'm aware of that will prevent us from reaching 18-22 named storms by the end of the year. As for major hurricanes, I agree... 2 is pushing it -- pushing the minimum that is. Three to five major storms from now until the end of September isn't all that farfetched at all.

[dwg71]

We are approching a burst

people have been saying that for 2 weeks now. "now its august, it about to bomb". Hasnt materialized yet. With us more than likely a week away from Jose, we might get to Sept 1 at 10 named storms.

That would mean your predicting 10/5/3 in Sept Oct Nov. - That would be incredible...

[gkrangers]

ONLY 10 by September 1st....thats funny.

[Anonymous]

We are approching a burst

people have been saying that for 2 weeks now. "now its august, it about to bomb". Hasnt materialized yet. With us more than likely a week away from Jose, we might get to Sept 1 at 10 named storms.

That would mean your predicting 10/5/3 in Sept Oct Nov. - That would be incredible...

Read Senor Pepr's post. Makes sense more than Jessica Simpson wearing tight jeans.

[senorpepr]

We are approching a burst

people have been saying that for 2 weeks now. "now its august, it about to bomb". Hasnt materialized yet. With us more than likely a week away from Jose, we might get to Sept 1 at 10 named storms.

That would mean your predicting 10/5/3 in Sept Oct Nov. - That would be incredible...

Okay... I'll repost this to help back up Floydbuster...

...this is pretty typical of the early-half of August.

Since the 1995-present era of above-normal activity (excluding 1997), August 1-14 yields 1.44 named storms. August 15-31 yields 3.11 - an increase of 215.97%. If you apply that to this year's 2 named storms in early August, another 4 or 5 named storms in the next few weeks wouldn't be farfetched. We may be seeing Maria or Nate moving into September.

In addition, I've pinpointed the amount of storms pre- and post-August 15 from 1995 to 2004. Then, I've added 2005's nine named storms to those post-August 15 amounts. If this year is anything like the past decade in terms of post-August 15 activity, we are certainly looking toward 18-22 named storms by the year's end. Of course, that number will be adjusted if there is a lower- or higher-than-normal "heart" of the season.

Code: Select all

A= Storms prior to Aug 15
B= Storm Aug 15 and after
C= 2005 YTD + year's storms Aug 15 and after

      A   B   C
1995  07  12  21
1996  03  10  19
1997  05  03  12
1998  01  13  22
1999  01  11  20
2000  02  13  22
2001  03  12  21
2002  03  09  18
2003  05  11  20
2004  05  10  19

An additional 10/5/3 in Sept-Nov for a total of 19/7/5 isn't all that amazing. It actually makes a great deal of sense.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

We are approching a burst

people have been saying that for 2 weeks now. "now its august, it about to bomb". Hasnt materialized yet. With us more than likely a week away from Jose, we might get to Sept 1 at 10 named storms.

That would mean your predicting 10/5/3 in Sept Oct Nov. - That would be incredible...

Read Senor Pepr's post. Makes sense more than Jessica Simpson wearing tight jeans.

[senorpepr]

people have been saying that for 2 weeks now. "now its august, it about to bomb". Hasnt materialized yet.

Furthermore, I should say that we are already slightly above normal for August. It has materialized and is only forecast to get worse...

[Anonymous]

Yea...look at how wet and moist the W Caribbean is getting. The MJO is making it's way in.