JB predicts 7-10 NS 8/20-9/20: Going out on limb?

[LarryWx]

Joe B. is predicting 7-10 named storms (NS) for the period 8/20-9/20. I will consider this to mean he expects 7-10 tropical cyclones that get named to FIRST form as TD's during this period. I assume he's EXCLUDING ex-TD #10 should it regenerate and ever become a NS.

I did some research of 1950-2004 to see if he really went out on a limb:

- Only 5 of the 55 years (9%) had 7+
- But 3 of these 5 were within the very recent period 1998-2004
- The highest since 1950 was 8 (2002)
- 1933 and 1936 each had 7
- 1950-2004 avg. for 8/20-9/20: 4.0 NS's first became TD's
- 1995-2004 (excl. 1997) avg. for 8/20-9/20: 5.3 NS's first became TD's

Conclusions:

1) He clearly went out on the limb when considering 1950-2004 averages in predicting 7 vs. the average of only 4 and with only 11% of seasons having had 7+.

2) He obviously didn't go out on the limb as much in terms of the recent highly active period (excluding '97) which had 3 of 9 (33%) seasons with 7+.

3) I consider it a pretty bold prediction overall. However, I also consider it quite reasonable when considering the recent very active years. I would have limited it to 7-8 instead of 7-10 since the highest since 1950 is only 8.

[NastyCat4]

I predict that if Joe B. is wrong in his prognostication, he will quickly back-pedal, and say that he never made that prediction in the first place.

[du1st]

We had this post yesterday.

[LarryWx]

We had this post yesterday.

No we didn't. That thread's initial post was relaying what JB predicted. The purpose of my post was to try to determine whether or not he really went out on a limb via a detailed anaysis of 1950-2004.

I've had a grand total of 207 posts since I joined 9/7/03 or only one post every ~three days. I don't overpost.

[du1st]

Don't say you do . I just thought we had it yesterday but it is different. Thanks for claryifing taht.

[linkerweather]

I typically dont get involved in these squabbles but, we did have this post yeserday and in fact it even started in the very first post about it mentioning JB "going out on a limb"

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=70556

[ameriwx2003]

He realized someone started a thread stating J.B.'S Numbers:):)
Larrywx's post was meant to prove or disprove by providing data if J.B. really did go out on a limb with his prediction.. :)

[LarryWx]

He realized someone started a thread stating J.B.'S Numbers:):)
Larrywx's post was meant to prove or disprove by providing data if J.B. really did go out on a limb with his prediction.. :)

Exactly. Thanks for backing me.

[LarryWx]

I typically dont get involved in these squabbles but, we did have this post yeserday and in fact it even started in the very first post about it mentioning JB "going out on a limb"

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=70556

See ameriwx2003's reply. That sums it up perfectly. du1st realizes it is different now. Squabble "cancel"