GUTS IN on August 22, 2005

[dhweather]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Gulf of Mexico Tropical Summary - GUTS IN on August 22, 2005

<img src="http://www.diamondheadweather.com/guts20050822.jpg">

The strong ridge centered over the southern US dominated most of the
GOM as well. The means continued misery for residents, with heat
advisories over most of the area.

The area of disturbed weather that was over the Yucatan Peninsula
and Belize yesterday has moved into the extreme southern Bay of
Campeche. The NHC has made this area Invest 98L. This system gained
a little more latitude than I anticipated, and made it over water, which
is giving it a narrow window of opportunity to develop as it continues
to move W to WNW. This system may become a tropical depression today
before moving inland overnight. There is an outside shot that it could reach tropical storm strength.

Otherwise, I do not expect tropical cyclone formation in the Gulf of Mexico in the next 48-72 hours.

[Stormcenter]

I thought you said yesterday we were not going to have any development in the GOM for 48-72 hours? I think you GUTS IN were GUTS OUT yesterday,

Oh well you always have a 50/50 chance of being right.

[dwg71]

I thought you said yesterday we were not going to have any development in the GOM for 48-72 hours? I think you GUTS IN were GUTS OUT yesterday,

Oh well you always have a 50/50 chance of being right.

Officially he's still right. There is an invest. Not a named or numbered storm. 98 might run out of real estate before it has time to be named.

[dhweather]

That's right - it's a crapshoot sometimes. Yesterday, that didn't appear to
have enough of a northerly component to get over water. It did have
just enough to do so. Now the question is will interaction with land
prohibit development, or is it just far enough offshore to make it.

Regardless, it doesn't have long to do much - it will be inland in 24 hours
or less.

[Stormcenter]

I thought you said yesterday we were not going to have any development in the GOM for 48-72 hours? I think you GUTS IN were GUTS OUT yesterday,

Oh well you always have a 50/50 chance of being right.

Officially he's still right. There is an invest. Not a named or numbered storm. 98 might run out of real estate before it has time to be named.

Oh please anyone can see that is at "least" a TD if not a weak TS but hey if you want to get technical than yes he is still correct until the NHC sends a recon down there.

[Stormcenter]

Oh well I guess you were wrong. The NHC has just issued a special update.

[dwg71]

Now he's incorrect, TD11 advisories will be issued within the hour. Sorry DH, I tried.

[dhweather]

You sound as if you are estatic that I was wrong. That's sad, really sad.

And yes, the STDS

000
WONT41 KNHC 221436
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
935 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2005

...ELEVENTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON IS FORMING OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE...

SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
IS FORMING WITHIN THE DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A
SPECIAL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

$$

[dhweather]

Now he's incorrect, TD11 advisories will be issued within the hour. Sorry DH, I tried.

No need to be sorry. I didn't think this would develop, and it did.
There's a 70-something page thread on TD10's remnants possibly
redeveloping. The remains didn't, I said they wouldn't. Some love to point it out when you are wrong, but stay silent when you are right.

[Steve]

>>You sound as if you are estatic that I was wrong. That's sad, really sad.

Aw come on dh. It's kind of funny to me. You give it your best shot like everyone else does. We're all wrong sometimes. But the average ego of posting weather fans has increased disproportionately over the last few years. Too many people want to be the first to break a story, state-cast and the whole 9 yards. I'm not saying that about Stormcenter at all, more of a general, casual observation.

Hey, look on the bright side. At least I can understand your forecasts.

Steve

[mvtrucking]

You are usually pretty much on target with your outlooks. So you were off on one. No big deal. Keep up the great posts!

[dhweather]

You are usually pretty much on target with your outlooks. So you were off on one. No big deal. Keep up the great posts!

Thank you. I'll take my "batting average" over anyone else.