Bob Breck is getting nervous (NOLA met)

[skysummit]

For those of you near NOLA who didn't see Bob at 5 or 5:30, he's beginning to get a little nervous. He does not see Katrina turning north like the NHC says it will....and he's not going with his Vipir model either! Vipir has it coming into the GOM and then recurving back toward Florida near Tampa. He just doesn't believe that's going to happen.

He pointed out the trough that's supposed to pick up Kat, however, that trough is way near the Canadian border still and he says it'll take 3 days until it affects Katrina. By that time, he says Katrina may be near the central to west/central gulf and if it turns then, it may be a little too close for comfort.

Again, that's just Bob Breck's thoughts and he's been wrong many times before.

Just wanted to share.

[dhweather]

Interesting.

[LAwxrgal]

Sounds like a complete about-face. You never know what this thing is going to do until it does it.

The tropics have been known to do funky things.

I'm just going to keep my eye out. That's the best thing right now.

[bfez1]

Bob Breck flip flops a lot. At 5:00 it's not coming our way and at 5:30 he changes his tune. I think he does that to keep people interested in his forecast.He is an alarmist, IMO!!!

[skysummit]

:roll: Sounds like a complete about-face. You never know what this thing is going to do until it does it.

I'm just going to keep my eye out. That's the best thing right now.

Yup..that's what I thought. I couldn't help but laugh at him after what he said yesterday. Boy, talk about a 180!

[Cape Verde]

I want to see a Floydbuster video. Where is that kid? Don't tell me that he's back in school and doing homework.

He ought to be teaching already.

[deltadog03]

boy, about time he wises up

[truballer#1]

his computer broke down

[LSU2001]

I want to see a Floydbuster video. Where is that kid? Don't tell me that he's back in school and doing homework.

He ought to be teaching already.

mike has been on radionhcwx this evening.
TIm

[gboudx]

Poor Bob can't catch a break with this crowd. Makes me wonder why anyone even watches him?

[Nimbus]

The key to the forecast is going to be how fast and far Katrina moves west before she recurves.

The NHC track has her almost stalled taking days to track up into the panhandle.

If Katrina rolls west a little faster and gets off the coast of Florida tomorrow morning those models are going to flip back left again.

[deltadog03]

great point...see she is moving WSW and is still moving at a pretty good clip

[Stormtrack]

For those of you near NOLA who didn't see Bob at 5 or 5:30, he's beginning to get a little nervous. He does not see Katrina turning north like the NHC says it will....and he's not going with his Vipir model either! Vipir has it coming into the GOM and then recurving back toward Florida near Tampa. He just doesn't believe that's going to happen.

He pointed out the trough that's supposed to pick up Kat, however, that trough is way near the Canadian border still and he says it'll take 3 days until it affects Katrina. By that time, he says Katrina may be near the central to west/central gulf and if it turns then, it may be a little too close for comfort.

Again, that's just Bob Breck's thoughts and he's been wrong many times before.

Just wanted to share.

Dr. Neil Frank in Houston (KHOU-TV) doesn't even mention the trough in his discussion of where the storm is going. He says it all depends on what the high that was over Texas does. It moved east to Louisiana and if it moves back to Texas which he expects, Katrina will go north. If not, it will move farther west.

[dhweather]

For those of you near NOLA who didn't see Bob at 5 or 5:30, he's beginning to get a little nervous. He does not see Katrina turning north like the NHC says it will....and he's not going with his Vipir model either! Vipir has it coming into the GOM and then recurving back toward Florida near Tampa. He just doesn't believe that's going to happen.

He pointed out the trough that's supposed to pick up Kat, however, that trough is way near the Canadian border still and he says it'll take 3 days until it affects Katrina. By that time, he says Katrina may be near the central to west/central gulf and if it turns then, it may be a little too close for comfort.

Again, that's just Bob Breck's thoughts and he's been wrong many times before.

Just wanted to share.

Dr. Neil Frank in Houston (KHOU-TV) doesn't even mention the trough in his discussion of where the storm is going. He says it all depends on what the high that was over Texas does. It moved east to Louisiana and if it moves back to Texas which he expects, Katrina will go north. If not, it will move farther west.

I'm leaning that way a bit too - that trough is gonna skip right on by, leaving the rigde as the determining factor.

[cajungal]

Channel 4 news mentioned a little more concern too at the 10:00 news. They said that they are worried that the trough might not dig far enough south to pick her up.

[Ixolib]

Just wanted to share.

Dr. Neil Frank in Houston (KHOU-TV) doesn't even mention the trough in his discussion of where the storm is going. He says it all depends on what the high that was over Texas does. It moved east to Louisiana and if it moves back to Texas which he expects, Katrina will go north. If not, it will move farther west.

Did he say WHY he expects the high to move back to Texas?

[cajungal]

I don't remember if he did or not. I was working all day from 12-9 and had no access to a TV. Only briefly caught the 10:00 p.m. weather.

[deltadog03]

DH, i posted this in another thread....look at the 500mb chart right now....I see a VERY large and strong ridge...

http://weather.cod.edu/wx/public/raob/500.gif

[dhweather]

Just wanted to share.

Dr. Neil Frank in Houston (KHOU-TV) doesn't even mention the trough in his discussion of where the storm is going. He says it all depends on what the high that was over Texas does. It moved east to Louisiana and if it moves back to Texas which he expects, Katrina will go north. If not, it will move farther west.

Did he say WHY he expects the high to move back to Texas?

Ridges naturally osciallte - they never sit just still. They will move a
little west and a little east. Stacey Stewart talked in detail about this
interviews with Mike Watkins early in the season.

[dhweather]

DH, i posted this in another thread....look at the 500mb chart right now....I see a VERY large and strong ridge...

http://weather.cod.edu/wx/public/raob/500.gif

oh boy.


GUTS may look a little different tomorrow.