Residents of New Orleans, Please Read

[wxman57]

As I write this message, the people of southeast Louisiana are staring at potentially THE greatest U.S. natural disaster right in the face. If Katrina stikes southeast Louisiana as forecast, and there's a good chance that it will, then there may be little left of that area come Monday evening. A Category 4 (or maybe 5) hurricane hitting New Orleans could put the city underwater for months. Of those who do not evacuate, it's estimated 20-30% will die. You live in a big bowl, and if/when the sides collapse (levees), the water will quickly rush in and cover the tops of your homes.

If I were living in New Orleans, then I would get out NOW, ASAP! If the storm tracks as forecast, then plan on NOT returning to New Orleans until perhaps 3-4 months. It'll probably take that long to pump out the city, inspect and repair all damage to the electrical supply, and remove the tens of thousands of bodies. You probably will have nothing left to come home to, so take what's most important to you in your evacuation.

Heed your local officials' warnings, but do not delay. If you wait to leave until Sunday, then I fear you'll be stuck in the most massive traffic jam that you've ever seen - and you'll probably die in your cars if the storm hits as forecast.

If it sounds like I'm trying to scare you, I AM! I don't sound the alarm here on this forum very often (ok, never), but this is one case that gives ME the shivers. All we can do now is to pray that something happens to divert or weaken the hurricane. Do not complain if you evacuate New Orleans and the storm weakens or veers to one side or the other, be very thankful you have you lives and your homes.

I need to get to work now to forecast the hurricane. If I see anything today that indicates a landfall other than New Orleans, I'll chime in.

[luvcanescarol]

http://americanradioworks.publicradio.o ... cane1.html

This is a 6-part report about how New Orleans would fare if struck by a hurricane. Very sobering.

[Steve]

Thanks 57. Depending on how they play it here in town this morning will depend on how chatoic things get with evacuations. If they kick in Phase I (and they have very little time to get it done according to plan), then things should get hectic. I'm going to knock out for about 3 hours and then go to the store. For the last 3 parking lot evacuations, people have been able to get out reasonably easy after the initial rush/crush of evacuees. Again, it's a timing issue but according to family and friends who have evacuated for some or all of Georges, Ivan and Dennis, the traffic flows best in the wee hours. So if anyone is thinking about evacuating and doesn't want to leave early (which is pretty much now), can't for whatever reason or maybe is sitting on the fence, there may be some hope to leave sometime after dark Saturday. Don't anyone take that as a guarantee, but that is my understanding from those major evacs. Of course in those cases, people that left early were already out by now...

Steve

[Hurricane Cheese]

Incredible to see the models clustered over New Orleans...

It's going to be interesting to see that if they persist throughout the next 12-18 hours, if NOLA would consider beginning evacuations of the city itself to get people out of the "bowl?"

[cycloneye]

I have a question for those who live in New Orleans.

Where is the Superdome located? Is it located near a lake or river or it is at a safe place? I ask because I know people will go there to refuge.

My thoughts and prayers go to you there and all in the gulf coast.

[Brent]

This isn't looking good... evacuations must start shortly after sunrise if they want any chance of getting everyone out that wants to leave.

[krysof]

Good thing I only lived there for a couple of years before moving to NJ. N.O. brace yourselves, and if you must evacuate do it because if you stay, your risking your life.

[sprink52]

Seriously...call hotels/motels in Jackson,Tuscaloosa,Birmingham,Montgomery,etc. and GO NOW. Spend a few hundred and take the wife and kids on a suprise mini vacation...but go NOW!

[mtm4319]

I have a question for those who live in New Orleans.

Where is the Superdome located? Is it located near a lake or river or it is at a safe place? I ask because I know people will go there to refuge.

My thoughts and prayers go to you there and all in the gulf coast.

The Superdome is located about 5 miles south of the south shore of Lake Pontchartrain, and about 1.2 miles west of the Mississippi River as it flows north, serving as the eastern boundary of downtown.



http://tinypic.com/b7nmv8.jpg

http://tinypic.com/b7nn0o.jpg

[timNms]

Thanks 57. Depending on how they play it here in town this morning will depend on how chatoic things get with evacuations. If they kick in Phase I (and they have very little time to get it done according to plan), then things should get hectic. I'm going to knock out for about 3 hours and then go to the store. For the last 3 parking lot evacuations, people have been able to get out reasonably easy after the initial rush/crush of evacuees. Again, it's a timing issue but according to family and friends who have evacuated for some or all of Georges, Ivan and Dennis, the traffic flows best in the wee hours. So if anyone is thinking about evacuating and doesn't want to leave early (which is pretty much now), can't for whatever reason or maybe is sitting on the fence, there may be some hope to leave sometime after dark Saturday. Don't anyone take that as a guarantee, but that is my understanding from those major evacs. Of course in those cases, people that left early were already out by now...

Steve

Steve, what do the officials in NO do about hospitals? Do they evacuate the patients?

[HoumaLa]

ceye they said last night it will be the last place they oopen for a shelter

[Brent]

Seriously...call hotels/motels in Jackson,Tuscaloosa,Birmingham,Montgomery,etc. and GO NOW. Spend a few hundred and take the wife and kids on a suprise mini vacation...but go NOW!

Most of the rooms are gonna be gone by the end of today... DO NOT WAIT.

[cycloneye]

I have a question for those who live in New Orleans.

Where is the Superdome located? Is it located near a lake or river or it is at a safe place? I ask because I know people will go there to refuge.

My thoughts and prayers go to you there and all in the gulf coast.

The Superdome is located about 5 miles south of the south shore of Lake Pontchartrain, and about 1.2 miles west of the Mississippi River as it flows north, serving as the eastern boundary of downtown.



http://tinypic.com/b7nmv8.jpg

http://tinypic.com/b7nn0o.jpg

Thank you for posting the map.

[Hurricane Cheese]

Here are the models just so everyone in NOLA realizes the threat that is now apparent...

[cajungal]

I am getting scared. 13 years yesterday since Andrew and I am afraid this will be much worse. I live just southwest of New Orleans and never seen that many models clustered over us. Most of them take them straight over my house. I am just going to do a lot of praying. We have been spared so many times. And I had this funny feeling that our time was almost up. Sept 9th marks the 40th anniversary of Betsy. And I had this strange feeling that would not let up that something big would happen to Louisiana around that time period.

[Mac]

Thanks 57. Depending on how they play it here in town this morning will depend on how chatoic things get with evacuations. If they kick in Phase I (and they have very little time to get it done according to plan), then things should get hectic. I'm going to knock out for about 3 hours and then go to the store. For the last 3 parking lot evacuations, people have been able to get out reasonably easy after the initial rush/crush of evacuees. Again, it's a timing issue but according to family and friends who have evacuated for some or all of Georges, Ivan and Dennis, the traffic flows best in the wee hours. So if anyone is thinking about evacuating and doesn't want to leave early (which is pretty much now), can't for whatever reason or maybe is sitting on the fence, there may be some hope to leave sometime after dark Saturday. Don't anyone take that as a guarantee, but that is my understanding from those major evacs. Of course in those cases, people that left early were already out by now...

Steve

Steve, what do the officials in NO do about hospitals? Do they evacuate the patients?

I am writing this from a Pediatric Critical Care Unit in Nashville, so I have a frame of reference on this question. They'll transfer whatever patients they can to inland facilities, but there are only so many rooms in other hospitals and so many ambulances to transport them. Many patients are too critically ill to move. The same goes for nursing homes. Unfortunately, the patients will be stuck as will be the doctors and nurses caring for them.

I am a volunteer with American Red Cross Disaster Services and with the Middle Tennessee Medical Reserve Corps. I'm already sending out emails to try to coordinate preparations for mobilizations of the response teams.

[wxman57]

Here's a slosh inundation map for the greater New Orleans area. I set it for Cat 4 moving to the north through the area. Check out the 20-21 foot deep surge into New Orleans.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/sloshnewcat4.gif">

[SouthFLTropics]

Just so everyone in New Orleans understands the seriousness of the situation here is a quote from Mark Sudduth at Hurricanetrack.com.

"I am wrapping things up here in Naples and will travel north tomorrow morning. My plans are still up in the air. Let me say this: I will NOT go to New Orleans if Katrina makes landfall there as a category three or four. I am not going to put myself in that kind of danger. There is a chance I could get in and place some equipment- but it is not worth the risk of not being able to get out. So- I will be watching the future track of this potentially historic hurricane very closely."

Now if anyone has ever followed Mark's missions you will know that normally he and his team do whatever they can to get into the eye of the storm to gather research. Just hearing him say that he would not go to New Orleans for the landfall is enough to give me the chills. I have met Mark in person and read many of his reports. He takes his work very seriously. I don't recall a time when I have read his reports that he seemed so concerned.

SouthFLTropics

[timNms]

Thanks 57. Depending on how they play it here in town this morning will depend on how chatoic things get with evacuations. If they kick in Phase I (and they have very little time to get it done according to plan), then things should get hectic. I'm going to knock out for about 3 hours and then go to the store. For the last 3 parking lot evacuations, people have been able to get out reasonably easy after the initial rush/crush of evacuees. Again, it's a timing issue but according to family and friends who have evacuated for some or all of Georges, Ivan and Dennis, the traffic flows best in the wee hours. So if anyone is thinking about evacuating and doesn't want to leave early (which is pretty much now), can't for whatever reason or maybe is sitting on the fence, there may be some hope to leave sometime after dark Saturday. Don't anyone take that as a guarantee, but that is my understanding from those major evacs. Of course in those cases, people that left early were already out by now...

Steve

Steve, what do the officials in NO do about hospitals? Do they evacuate the patients?

I am writing this from a Pediatric Critical Care Unit in Nashville, so I have a frame of reference on this question. They'll transfer whatever patients they can to inland facilities, but there are only so many rooms in other hospitals and so many ambulances to transport them. Many patients are too critically ill to move. The same goes for nursing homes. Unfortunately, the patients will be stuck as will be the doctors and nurses caring for them.

I am a volunteer with American Red Cross Disaster Services and with the Middle Tennessee Medical Reserve Corps. I'm already sending out emails to try to coordinate preparations for mobilizations of the response teams.

Sounds like a bad situation for those who will be unable to evacuate. My wife is an RN and I'm glad she isn't employed in the New Orleans area!

[cajungal]

My best friend is a RN at Terrebonne General in Houma. She will have to work. Her husband will stay at the hospital to ride it out with her and their 8-month old son.