Latest SSTA data shows that the area of warm SSTAs in Nino regions 4 is still intact, and if anything is spreading further east. The cool anomalies from off Peru to Nino region 3 are diminishing some. In other words, La Nina has still not arrived, and is not even close to doing so. Why the warming? First off, it's only a fluctuation. A fluctuation caused by a large wet MJO that has been present in the Pacific for about a month now, which in addition to increasing TC development, tends to increase the SSTAs. As I speak, a large dry MJO is moving into the area. As it does so, we should see the Pacific SSTAs gradually cool down again. This cooling could possibly ultimately lead to La Nina and if not, then we will have to wait for the next wet MJO, which is due in early September. Either way, we should get a weak La Nina in time for the climax of the Atlantic hurricane season. Enhancing? You betcha.
. Plus, don't forget that during those years prior to the satellite era, there were probably several weaker TSs that were missed. That's why the named storm numbers are very low in a lot of those years.
