Could katrina do a charley and shift due east?

[Noah]

Any possibility? Storm tracks change so much, I have seen some drastic ones over the years.

[CronkPSU]

possible, like you said, anything is but that would be truly an act of god

[NEXRAD]

Charley had a sharp trough just to the north. I remember watching the water vapor and Theta-E data and commenting how the TPC track taking that hurricane to Tampa Bay was too far left.

For Katrina, no such trough exists. The hurricane's movements will be more a product of high pressures than directly related to a trough. A gradually more eastward track is possible, but I'd not anticipate a tremendous shift east.

- Jay
KSC FL

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I think this scenario is highly unlikely given model consensus, because with Charley I think we might have had some models taking it
near Punta Gorda even though the consensus was Tampa Bay.

Possible, but unlikely.

[southerngreen]

Don't even think it much less say it. We do not need it up Tampa Bay. Most of the people here are transplants and have NO CLUE.

(even after last year, there is so much apathy. unless they personally lost something, they seem oblivious. and those who DID have damage think Frances or Jeanne was bad news)


Have you noticed the intensity in the right front quadrant over the past few satellite frames? Really scary. I just wish it would go away.

[NastyCat4]

Less than 1/10 of 1% chance--this is a North Gulf issue. Give it up with the Tampa senario, it ain't happening. We need to worry for the Mississippi/Louisiana folk, as that is where it is going.

[Sean in New Orleans]

If the models weren't in such agreement, I would say maybe. But, they almost look like one line they are in such agreement. Unfortunately, and sadly, I'm afraid this may, indeed, be a New Orleans storm...

[Rainband]

Less than 1/10 of 1% chance--this is a North Gulf issue. Give it up with the Tampa senario, it ain't happening. We need to worry for the Mississippi/Louisiana folk, as that is where it is going.

Asking questions is How we learn.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

In this case the models are way offshore. The chance of a hard right
is extremely slim.

However, strong rainbands with TS force gusts are likely this afternoon
with all the thunderstorms blowing up over SW and Central Florida.

TWC reported gusts to 48 mph in downtown St. Pete with a rainband.

We dodged a HUGE BULLET here in Tampa Bay, but unfortunately
New Orleans may be taking this bullet...

[Rainband]

Check out key west radar

[johngaltfla]

Check out key west radar

Why did you make me do that. What the hell is that stupid storm doing??????????????????????????????????????????????

Am I looking at the loop right????????????????

[Ivanhater]

looks like a big jump north on radar

[NastyCat4]

Still moving West, possibly about 275, which is slightly North of due West.

[johngaltfla]

looks like a big jump north on radar

A little early for that much of a jump, IMHO. Hopefully that's just part of the ERC.

[jkt21787]

Long range radar is not reliable. Added to that the ERC and there are changes in the structure of the eye, things can be quite deceiving. Recon continues to indicate a due west motion with a few wobbles in either direction

[Ivanhater]

sorry guys, i jumped the gun...im just real nervous in pcola, nerves clouding my mind

[johngaltfla]

sorry guys, i jumped the gun...im just real nervous in pcola, nerves clouding my mind

Scared the living crap out of us who were just 30 miles north of Charley too.......

[jkt21787]

Recon does indicate more north movement now, however it probably is another wobble especially as the ERC wraps up and the new eyewall is taking over.

[Rainband]

Recon does indicate more north movement now, however it probably is another wobble especially as the ERC wraps up and the new eyewall is taking over.

Makes sense. Thanks