clear elongation NW

PTPatrick · #1 Postby **PTPatrick** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 5:18 pm

looking at this water vapor it appears to have hit a wall...sort of spreading out NNW to SSE...maybe a turn, but then who knows

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Website · #2 Postby **Brent** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 5:20 pm

I've been noticing it all afternoon...

dwg71 · #3 Postby **dwg71** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 5:24 pm

I think you will start seeing the W to WNW to NW turn very shortly and very quickly. I will stick with FTWalton Beach as landfall call. Models will shift East at next run, imo.

#4 Postby **tracyswfla** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 5:24 pm

dwg71 wrote:I think you will start seeing the W to WNW to NW turn very shortly and very quickly. I will stick with FTWalton Beach as landfall call. Models will shift East at next run, imo.

Looking at the water vapor image, the west coast of Florida is getting the outer bands.

rtd2 · #5 Postby **rtd2** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 5:25 pm

dwg71 wrote:I think you will start seeing the W to WNW to NW turn very shortly and very quickly. I will stick with FTWalton Beach as landfall call. Models will shift East at next run, imo.

WOW that would BLOW the NHC's Last 10 Discussions Out of the water~...But I agree with the Wobble Here it goes. The high is now bending right in the middle and Katrina moisture is pushing into that gap. Katrina has taken a noted WNW movement with N and W wobble components.
I believe the due west movement is over. What I think remains up in the air is whether this storm keeps WNW a long time or moves right into NW. The call is up in the air. If the high breaks, then I know the answer. If it does not, New Orleans-Biloxi will be ground zero.

The "contrail" of clouds for lack of a better term is the western edge of that high and it has retrograded back to near Venice and Grand Isle.

Intensity should be rapid now for the next few hours before it tapers off.

Landfall range is the watch area, as I think NHC is as close to right on as can be at this moment.

#6 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 5:26 pm

dwg71 wrote:I think you will start seeing the W to WNW to NW turn very shortly and very quickly. I will stick with FTWalton Beach as landfall call. Models will shift East at next run, imo.

dwg, i hope your wrong! but for once i do agree with you, lol

dwg71 · #7 Postby **dwg71** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 5:27 pm

ivanhater wrote:
dwg71 wrote:I think you will start seeing the W to WNW to NW turn very shortly and very quickly. I will stick with FTWalton Beach as landfall call. Models will shift East at next run, imo.

dwg, i hope your wrong! but for once i do agree with you, lol

finally, ivan we're cool 8-)

tropicsgal05 · #8 Postby **tropicsgal05** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 5:28 pm

I hope dwg is wrong to because i live in Ft. Walton Beach

dwg71 · #9 Postby **dwg71** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 5:29 pm

tropicsgal05 wrote:I hope dwg is wrong to because i live in Ft. Walton Beach

Do you have an evac plan?

#10 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 5:30 pm

dwg71 wrote:
ivanhater wrote:
dwg71 wrote:I think you will start seeing the W to WNW to NW turn very shortly and very quickly. I will stick with FTWalton Beach as landfall call. Models will shift East at next run, imo.

dwg, i hope your wrong! but for once i do agree with you, lol

finally, ivan we're cool

lol

#11 Postby **loon** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 5:35 pm

ivanhater wrote:
dwg71 wrote:
ivanhater wrote:
dwg71 wrote:I think you will start seeing the W to WNW to NW turn very shortly and very quickly. I will stick with FTWalton Beach as landfall call. Models will shift East at next run, imo.

dwg, i hope your wrong! but for once i do agree with you, lol

finally, ivan we're cool

lol

Amazing the one time he agrees, is when you say its going to go back his way...lol, this place never ceases to amaze me when a big one comes calling, heheh

cheers,
loon

#12 Postby **Cookiely** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 6:16 pm

By looking at the WV, I think its going to land at the Alabama/Florida line as a cat 3. Just my humble opinion.

vespersparrow · #13 Postby **vespersparrow** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 6:35 pm

I cannot even fathom the mess it would be if this thing shifted East. There is an air of complacency around here now. Especially since they're all calling for NOLA. It would be one major disaster.

Ixolib · #14 Postby **Ixolib** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 6:38 pm

As I recall, it seems to me that the NHC has been pretty accurate with landfall, certainly within 36 or so hours. Do some of you really believe that they can make that huge of an error (Ft. Walton) within this time-frame??

#15 Postby **Stormcenter** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 6:44 pm

Ixolib wrote:As I recall, it seems to me that the NHC has been pretty accurate with landfall, certainly within 36 or so hours. Do some of you really believe that they can make that huge of an error (Ft. Walton) within this time-frame??

Anything is posssible. I see this storm going into Gulfport/Biloxi area but it will be VERY close call for N.O. :eek:

#16 Postby **mvtrucking** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 6:45 pm

Ixolib wrote:As I recall, it seems to me that the NHC has been pretty accurate with landfall, certainly within 36 or so hours. Do some of you really believe that they can make that huge of an error (Ft. Walton) within this time-frame??

EDIT: After looking closely, I think that was just a burst of convection to the NE. The storm is basically right on the NHC's forecast points.(Maybe a hair off to the N). I think they have pretty good handle on this storm.

8pm EDT NHC:

AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST OR ABOUT 360 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

KATRINA HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH.
THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

clear elongation NW

clear elongation NW

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