Thank God

[coolwater]

She looks to be weakening. 918mb and wind speeds down. I think everyone can breath a little sigh of relief that NOLA is going to be just fine.

[DelrayMorris]

The winds are "down" to 150 mph. I hardly think that's the criteria for "just fine". Maybe it won't be as bad as thought, but I think saying it's "just fine" is a real stretch.

[inotherwords]

Don't be ridiculous, NO will not be "just fine." The levees are only structured to withstand a 3 and that was debatable. This is still a strong category 4 storm.

Did you know that Hurricane Andrew was 922 mb?

[CharleySurvivor]

NO 'just fine'?????

[steveklein]

the core is going to miss new orleans.

so instead of looking at 175mph winds like they were yesterday from a direct hit... they are looking at 70-100mph winds

[inotherwords]

the core is going to miss new orleans.

so instead of looking at 175mph winds like they were yesterday from a direct hit... they are looking at 70-100mph winds

On what planet is a Category 4 hurricane 70-100 mph winds?

[Jevo]

the core is going to miss new orleans.

so instead of looking at 175mph winds like they were yesterday from a direct hit... they are looking at 70-100mph winds

On what planet is a Category 4 hurricane 70-100 mph winds?

this guy is a troll has been since this morning... let it go

[steveklein]

the core is going to miss new orleans.

so instead of looking at 175mph winds like they were yesterday from a direct hit... they are looking at 70-100mph winds

On what planet is a Category 4 hurricane 70-100 mph winds?

the planet Earth. when a weakening category 4 storm misses you by 20 miles to the west... with a western half of the storm that is falling apart.

just wait. if new orleans sees sustained winds over 100mph i will eat a ton of crow. too bad it ain't gonna happen.

[inotherwords]

the core is going to miss new orleans.

so instead of looking at 175mph winds like they were yesterday from a direct hit... they are looking at 70-100mph winds

On what planet is a Category 4 hurricane 70-100 mph winds?

this guy is a troll has been since this morning... let it go

Clearly he's never been in or near a major hurricane. I think a few of us with ample direct experience could set him straight.

[oneness]

Has anyone heard the saying,

"count your chickens when they are hatched"?

This strong cat 4 has about 8 to 10 hours to go.

[steveklein]

the core is going to miss new orleans.

so instead of looking at 175mph winds like they were yesterday from a direct hit... they are looking at 70-100mph winds

On what planet is a Category 4 hurricane 70-100 mph winds?

this guy is a troll has been since this morning... let it go

Clearly he's never been in or near a major hurricane. I think a few of us with ample direct experience could set him straight.

oops. wrong. i was in pensacola for dennis and elberta for ivan.

Dennis is to Pensacola as Katrina is to New Orleans:
A cat 4 bore down on Pensacola while delivering cat 1 type effects because the storm rapidly weakened and missed the city.

Similar situation to New Orleans. New Orleans probably won't fare as well as Pensacola did during Dennis... but they will probably see cat 1/cat 2 effects with some flooding as opposed to a cat 5 catastrophe with 20,000 fatalaties.

[Pebbles]

NO fine?? No... even the NHC isn't saying that at ALL!

Coastal storm surge flooding of 18 to 22 feet above normal tide
levels...locally as high as 28 feet...along with large and dangerous
battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall. Some levees in the greater New Orleans area
could be overtopped. Significant storm surge flooding will occur
elsewhere along the central and northeastern Gulf of Mexico coast.
NOAA buoy 42040 located about 50 miles east of the mouth of the
Mississippi River recently reported waves heights of at least 47
feet.

[steveklein]

NO fine?? No... even the NHC isn't saying that at ALL!

Coastal storm surge flooding of 18 to 22 feet above normal tide
levels...locally as high as 28 feet...along with large and dangerous
battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall. Some levees in the greater New Orleans area
could be overtopped. Significant storm surge flooding will occur
elsewhere along the central and northeastern Gulf of Mexico coast.
NOAA buoy 42040 located about 50 miles east of the mouth of the
Mississippi River recently reported waves heights of at least 47
feet.

did you miss the part where it said "TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL"

surge in New Orleans will probably be on the order of 12 feet... not enough to top the levees... at least not in a catastrophic manner.

[Pebbles]

What part of some levies in NO area may be over topped can you not comprehend?

[steveklein]

What part of some levies in NO area may be over topped can you not comprehend?

yeah they could be, but in all likelihood they won't because the storm, especially the west side is weakening significantly.

Fact: there was a chance that New Orleans would be under 20 feet of water with tens of thousands of fatalaties and all structures seeing heavy wind damage.

Fact: nothing even close to that will happen to New Orleans.

[oneness]

Another thing, have a look at the LAT/LONG plot on this SAT image loop, the eye is currently further west than it has been so far.

There is zero net drift eastwards, thus far, just north with a very slight westerly component in it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Also, that eye is going to be half over the water for the next 6 to 8 hours.

[pr2000gt]

NOLA has had winds over 71 knots for several hours now. Rain is estimated at 5-10 inches in several spots. I think to say they are only having Cat. 1 effects is a bit much if not a total load of crap.

You are also ignoring the two eyewalls and how it basically underwent an ERC. Because of that the winds might be less intense, but the wind field is much larger.

[oneness]

The west side is off the land, so it's not surprising it is less intense.

[steveklein]

NOLA has had winds over 71 knots for several hours now. Rain is estimated at 5-10 inches in several spots. I think to say they are only having Cat. 1 effects is a bit much if not a total load of crap.

sustained winds of 90-95 mph is a category 1.

i haven't even heard new orleans reporting a *GUST* of 90mph. infact, i haven't even seen a gust over 80 in new orleans. there may have been one... but i haven't seen it.

[pr2000gt]

NOLA has had winds over 71 knots for several hours now. Rain is estimated at 5-10 inches in several spots. I think to say they are only having Cat. 1 effects is a bit much if not a total load of crap.

sustained winds of 90-95 mph is a category 1.

i haven't even heard new orleans reporting a *GUST* of 90mph. infact, i haven't even seen a gust over 80 in new orleans. there may have been one... but i haven't seen it.

The hurricane was not over the city when that occurred. It has been getting over 71 knot winds for several hours now with the worst yet to come. There haven't been any reports because there is not only no one there to give the reports, but the power is out in some of the city, and the worst of the winds are not there. This storm just made landfall, there is zero way to predict or ascertain the damage level of New Orleans at this time.