Hurricane Katrina is NOT strengthening... (To ALL posters)

[Hyperstorm]

Hello, everyone! The storm does NOT appear to be strengthening. If anything, the storm is maintaining the strength at the very most, if not weakening slightly.

This has been discussed before, when storms are in weakening phase (based on pressure) while making landfall, the strongest winds tend not to make it to the surface.

Yes, it is still a STRONG category 4 hurricane, but is NO longer a catastrophic category 5 hurricane. There is a major difference between a 175 mph hurricane and a weakening 150 mph hurricane.

Please stop talking about Trolls, -removed-, etc..... There are some VERY valid comments being made in this forum which should be respected.

I can't believe that there are people who want to see this become a category 5 again, contrary to what official data is showing...

[inotherwords]

That's not what the trolls are saying, they're saying it's going to be a Category 1 when it reaches New Orleans.

NOBODY here wants this storm to stay a 5 or for the city to suffer damage, but to say a strong 4 is not going to devastate New Orleans is incredibly naive.

All the news media is saying it's weakening "only slightly."

Let's face reality, a strong Category 4 is horrific. I know, I live near Punta Gorda/Port Charlotte and I've seen it.

[steveklein]

:applauds, claps, and whistles:

the side that will affect new orleans is definitely falling apart. yeah new orleans still may see gusts to 100 mph but they aren't going to be looking at 12 hours of sustained winds over 75mph and briefly reaching over 170mph.

i believe the winds were just dropped back to 145. they will continue to fall as it continues to interact with land. by the time it makes it to the missisippi coast, i feel it will probably be a 120-130mph storm.

[inotherwords]

Gee Steve, five minutes ago you predicted 70-100 mph in New Orleans. Nice revision. At least you're going in the right direction.

How old are you? I'm wondering if you're just a kid having fun here.

[superfly]

NOLA will still be seeing 100+ mph sustained for quite a few hours as this storm's wind field is very big. That said, we will no longer see the 130+ sustained that was forecast earlier. NOLA will only see cat 2-3 winds but it will be for an extended period of time.

[steveklein]

Gee Steve, five minutes ago you predicted 70-100 mph in New Orleans. Nice revision. At least you're going in the right direction.

How old are you? I'm wondering if you're just a kid having fun here.

read my post. i didn't change anything.

[Thunder44]

The problem people get hyped up about a Cat 5 storm hitting New Orleans and when they don't get it, they'll say it's a dud, or it's great news, or no big deal. A Cat 4 doesn't mean much anymore. It's funny because meant alot to the people of Punta Gorda.

[inotherwords]

Gee Steve, five minutes ago you predicted 70-100 mph in New Orleans. Nice revision. At least you're going in the right direction.

How old are you? I'm wondering if you're just a kid having fun here.

read my post. i didn't change anything.

You said this in the "Thank God" thread at 6:37 a.m. :

"the core is going to miss new orleans.

so instead of looking at 175mph winds like they were yesterday from a direct hit... they are looking at 70-100mph winds"

And that's my last post to you, troll.

[steveklein]

That's not what the trolls are saying, they're saying it's going to be a Category 1 when it reaches New Orleans.

NOBODY here wants this storm to stay a 5 or for the city to suffer damage, but to say a strong 4 is not going to devastate New Orleans is incredibly naive.

All the news media is saying it's weakening "only slightly."

Let's face reality, a strong Category 4 is horrific. I know, I live near Punta Gorda/Port Charlotte and I've seen it.

I'm not saying it will be a cat 1 when it reaches New Orleans. It will be probably a strong 3 or weak 4 as it passed by, but since New Orleans will miss the eastern eyewall where those winds are by a good bit, I expect cat 1 winds, gusting to cat 2, in the city of New Orleans.

[steveklein]

Gee Steve, five minutes ago you predicted 70-100 mph in New Orleans. Nice revision. At least you're going in the right direction.

How old are you? I'm wondering if you're just a kid having fun here.

read my post. i didn't change anything.

You said this in the "Thank God" thread at 6:37 a.m. :

"the core is going to miss new orleans.

so instead of looking at 175mph winds like they were yesterday from a direct hit... they are looking at 70-100mph winds"

And that's my last post to you, troll.

LOL!!!! And what did I say in this thread?

"the side that will affect new orleans is definitely falling apart. yeah new orleans still may see gusts to 100 mph but they aren't going to be looking at 12 hours of sustained winds over 75mph and briefly reaching over 170mph.

i believe the winds were just dropped back to 145. they will continue to fall as it continues to interact with land. by the time it makes it to the missisippi coast, i feel it will probably be a 120-130mph storm."


i said gusts to 100mph in New Orleans! LOL! a 120-130mph storm.... THAT MISSES NEW ORLEANS YOU JOKER! the MS coast is going to see the eastern eyewall and by then it will be 120-130, imo. I didn't change A THING.

Why can't you just admit you misinterpreted my post and that my "wishcast" is probably close to reality.

[Hyperstorm]

The problem people get hyped up about a Cat 5 storm hitting New Orleans and when they don't get it, they'll say it's a dud, or it's great news, or no big deal. A Cat 4 doesn't mean much anymore. It's funny because meant alot to the people of Punta Gorda.

The problem is that there is quite a difference between a strengthening hurricane and a slowly, but surely weakening one.

Based on my years of experience with tropical cyclones, a 140 mph hurricane in a strengthening phase versus a 140 mph hurricane in a weakening phase is remarkable. Many of the highest sustatined winds do not make it to the surface when a storm is weakening. The technicalities of that are still being studied and is not certain why that is.

Since the western side of the storm is usually one category weaker than the eastern side (even more so in dry-weakened storms), I don't expect sustained winds to reach more than 100 mph in New Orleans, LA. Even that might be a little high since it appears it will miss the eyewall.

If anything, the strongest weather will be felt in Gulfport and Biloxi with likely category 3 conditions...

[inotherwords]

The problem with the storm passing to the northeast quadrant is that it's going to prevent flood water from being pumped out of New Orleans into Lake Ponchartrain.

The question is whether the predicted storm surge will still affect NO. That will be what causes the levees to fail, NOT the winds, and it's the flooding that people are most worried about.

[Hyperstorm]

Just got word that the storm continues to weaken and has just made landfall with 140 mph winds. What a difference a day makes! This is certainly nothing to laugh about, but those winds will likely only be felt in a VERY localized area.

Regarding the threat to NO not being winds, but flooding from the lake, etc...That is a wrong assertion.

The levees can stand up to category 3 winds. Anything higher will make the lakes overflow into the city. Depending on the strength of the winds, it will depend on how much flooding occurs.

The storm surge occurs mostly where the eye makes landfall and to its east. The eye will be passing miles to the east of the city, so that the main driver of the water will likely be the wind and NOT storm surge...

[Thunder44]

I haven't seen any statement by TPC confirming landfall yet.

[cycloneye]

I haven't seen any statement by TPC confirming landfall yet.

Go to advisorie thread.

[Hyperstorm]

000
WTNT62 KNHC 291116
TCUAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
610 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005

...KATRINA MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...

AT 610 AM CDT...1110Z...HURRICANE KATRINA HAS MADE LANDFALL IN
SOUTHERN PLAQUEMINES PARISH LOUISIANA...JUST SOUTH OF BURAS...AS A
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 140 MPH TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

FORECASTER PASCH

[inotherwords]

Official landfall was 6:10 a.m. central time at Burris (sp)?

[Thunder44]

I haven't seen any statement by TPC confirming landfall yet.

Go to advisorie thread.

Ok, I just saw it. thanks

[Mello1]

Hello, everyone! The storm does NOT appear to be strengthening. If anything, the storm is maintaining the strength at the very most, if not weakening slightly.

This has been discussed before, when storms are in weakening phase (based on pressure) while making landfall, the strongest winds tend not to make it to the surface.

Yes, it is still a STRONG category 4 hurricane, but is NO longer a catastrophic category 5 hurricane. There is a major difference between a 175 mph hurricane and a weakening 150 mph hurricane.

Please stop talking about Trolls, -removed-, etc..... There are some VERY valid comments being made in this forum which should be respected.

I can't believe that there are people who want to see this become a category 5 again, contrary to what official data is showing...

Look. No one is -removed- here. I'm glad that the eye will pass to the east of NO.

But there are people here who think that this thing is over and that there will be no problems. That is equally foolish to state at this time. So I find this thread moot.