If NOAA data is correct, Katrina could have been much worse

[Derek Ortt]

Have been looking at some dropsonde data at landfall and the NOAA and AF data conflicts. The NOAA data only shows a very marginal cat <b>3</b> at landfall, while the AF shows a solid 4.

I hope that the AF data is the correct one as if a marginal 3 did this...

[birdwomn]

I will be very interested to see the overall analysis of Katrina after you mets have a chance to study everything in depth. I was very interesting to watcht eh changes just prior to landfall.

[MBismyPlayground]

Have been looking at some dropsonde data at landfall and the NOAA and AF data conflicts. The NOAA data only shows a very marginal cat <b>3</b> at landfall, while the AF shows a solid 4.

I hope that the AF data is the correct one as if a marginal 3 did this...

I am stunned. Marginal cat 3 to Solid Cat 4........
What if.......it had stayed a CAT 5........omg

[ohiostorm]

Have been looking at some dropsonde data at landfall and the NOAA and AF data conflicts. The NOAA data only shows a very marginal cat <b>3</b> at landfall, while the AF shows a solid 4.

I hope that the AF data is the correct one as if a marginal 3 did this...

I am stunned. Marginal cat 3 to Solid Cat 4........
What if.......it had stayed a CAT 5........omg

I dont want to imagine that.

[AlabamaDave]

But wasn't the surge with this storm a Cat-5 surge???? Even if the winds had decreased to Cat-3, we are still witnessing the apocalyptic destruction associated with the surge that developed while the storm was at #3 intensity ever recorded in the Atlanic Basin. I don't think we can ever consider this storm representative of Cat-3 hurricanes, even if the max winds had dropped dramatically by landfall.

[ChaserUK]

But wasn't the surge with this storm a Cat-5 surge???? Even if the winds had decreased to Cat-3, we are still witnessing the apocalyptic destruction associated with the surge that developed while the storm was at #3 intensity ever recorded in the Atlanic Basin. I don't think we can ever consider this storm representative of Cat-3 hurricanes, even if the max winds had dropped dramatically by landfall.

Totally agree and this is what I have been saying on UKWW today. The destruction of this hurricane was nothing short of Cat 5 although meterologically speaking it may have been less (I say may because some pics I have seen on Fox just now look like F5 tornado damage). 920mb on landfall is Cat 5 is it not?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The western side of the storm had rebuild about a hour before landfall. In the outter eye wall was becoming the main one. I would say 140 to 145 mph is a good by the nhc.

[wxman57]

I talked to one of my customers in Gulfport. His operations center was 30 feet above sea level and they got a foot of water in it. There were shipping containers in his parking lot. He estimates that the surge to their west in Pass Christien and Bay St. Louis was 40 ft.

[blueeyes_austin]

This doesn't completely surprise me...the wind damage in Slidell, for example, is much less than I expected.

The surge, though....

Kinda makes you think the whole five step hurricane classification can be a bit misleading.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

40 foot surge

[ChaserUK]

This doesn't completely surprise me...the wind damage in Slidell, for example, is much less than I expected.

The surge, though....

Kinda makes you think the whole five step hurricane classification can be a bit misleading.

I agree again. I think a Hurricane should NOW be classified on the Cat scale according to damage - like the Fujita scale. Clearly this is Cat 5 damage-wise, nothing less.

[tallywx]

Wouldn't that be an all-time record in DISPARITY if this was a marginal cat 3 with a minimum central pressure of 918 mb? Has that ever happened before in any storm (including Pacific typhoons)???

[MKT2005]

But which data is likely correct the NOAA or the AF data?

[shaner]

This doesn't completely surprise me...the wind damage in Slidell, for example, is much less than I expected.

The surge, though....

Kinda makes you think the whole five step hurricane classification can be a bit misleading.

I agree again. I think a Hurricane should NOW be classified on the Cat scale according to damage - like the Fujita scale. Clearly this is Cat 5 damage-wise, nothing less.

The problem with using a Fujita type scale is that it doesn't tell you the conditions until after the event, which in the case of a Tornado doesn't last very long. A hurricane is a much longer event which requires forecasting to indicate the strength before landfall so that evacuations can take place on a much larger scale.

I do think the S-S scale needs to be revisited, because it isn't specific enough. I think they should use storm surge as the defining point instead of wind speed. But, I'm a total weather newb.

[Derek Ortt]

this needs to be setteled as for one, we need to know which agency is reporting the most accurate data so we know who to use when the next major affects the coast.

based upon the 137 m.p.h. gust in Gulfport and the 110 m.p.h. in Laurel 100 miles inland, I believe strongly that the AF data was accurate, this was a cat 4 in LA and a cat 3 in MS

Most of the wind damage was in MS and was complete in some areas

[greeng13]

derek,

what would you say about ivan last year? i remember many saying that the surge there looked more like CAT 5 (after the fact)

[mf_dolphin]

I know that here in the Tampa Bay area they say that storm surge can be as much as 25% higher than the SS scale. This is due to the shallow shelf that extends far off-shore. There is no deep channel to funnel off the surge like there is on much of the east-coast.

[greeng13]

I know that here in the Tampa Bay area they say that storm surge can be as much as 25% higher than the SS scale. This is due to the shallow shelf that extends far off-shore. There is no deep channel to funnel off the surge like there is on much of the east-coast.

true...i do remember hearing that when preps for charley were taking place

[Derek Ortt]

Ivan's surge looked like marginal cat 3 surge for the northern GOM. Alabama's surge from Katrina was as high, if not higher than what Ivan caused in the landfall zone

[greeng13]

ok thanks. like i said i just remembered several on this side likening ivan's surge to CAT 5. i guess this was more on the coast/islands/impact area than alabama with katrina?