My Ophelia Perspective Pt. 2 Bombs Out?

[Jim Hughes]

Ophelia has done just about what I thought she would during the past 24 hours. If you read my post last night I think you would have to agree. At least a fair person would.


http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=74033


She also has followed my updated comments that I added early this morning fairly well also. She looked much healthier on satellite images earlier this morning/today and as we have approached 11/00z she has started to look more ragged especially on the western side again. ....I know dry air... But she seems to fight this off when she wants to or at least when I think she will.

So what lies ahead ? Strong solar eruptions almost 36 hours ago will be favorable for enhancement in the upcoming few 3-5 hours but there is another one that goes against this....and it is just as important... so I will stay with her staying the same strength in the very short term with the possibility of mild changes in satellite imagery.

If Ophelia was to get her act together in the next few hours than we could be in for some big trouble by mid day tomorrow. I feel pretty confident that we are going to see some strengthening from Ophelia once again by tomorrow morning and the satellite images should start to show her looking much healthier and organized.

The time frame once again is centered around 12z with the likelihood of it occurring between 11/9-15z. So the 11am discussion tomorrow morning should reveal that she is becoming better organized and that she has strengthened...... I sincerely hope that tomorrows 11am discussion is more informative than this mornings BTW.

The key question is how much will she strengthen. I really want to bump her up quite a bit especially if she looks healthy during the next 3-5 hours but I am going to stay on the conservative side and say 5-10 mph with the slight chance of her getting even a little stronger.

I will add some more comments tomorrow morning just like I did this morning. My early analysis leans towrds another quiet time by late afternoon early evening tomorrow but I need to look over things some more closely.

BTW space weather has continued to be high throughout today and we may have just got hit with a CME as I am writing this. I will update geomagnetic activty/Aurora in Global Forum later.


Jim