Confusing times for NHC

[TheShrimper]

When was the last time anyone saw strike probability percentages designated to such a vast area in a 48 hour window. Hell, Miami and Ft. Myers are still mentioned, clear up to Long Island. I could understand this if a storm was racing up the east coast from the Bahamas ahead of a trough, but one at the latitude at where Ophelia is now is unprecedented to have percentages associated with cities at such lower lattitudes. Not that the latter would ever transpire, but it was wierd ton see that.

[chicagopizza]

I thought that was strange too. I mean, you look at the five day cone and you think , okay, I'm not in it. then, you look at strike probs and there you are-still listed. It's hard to convince family members you are in the clear when they see that number listed under strike probs still. I wonder, is that in case she stalls more than expected? Not sure.

[beachbum_al]

This storm has been unpredictable from the very beginning. Nothing surprises me. I just hope it doesn't decide to go into the GOM. And for those in the path stay safe and be prepare.

[chicagopizza]

So, are you saying that you feel it is still unpredictable? Of course, I will always take NHC's track over anyone's , but just wanted to clarify that is what you meant your opinion was.

[Deb321]

So, are you saying that you feel it is still unpredictable? Of course, I will always take NHC's track over anyone's , but just wanted to clarify that is what you meant your opinion was.

On TWC Dr Lyons just said it is stationary and not expected to move very much for the next 24 hours. It is possible it may not hit US but would brush the Outer Banks NC still alot of uncertainty. Not expected to be a strong hurricane.

[wxwatcher91]

looks like it is heading ESE on satellite...

the eye is starting to show up again and you can see the Ophelia once again is abour 20-30 miles east of the first forecast positions... man the NHC is having trouble predicting 6 hours out let alone 48

[PhillyWX]

Nobody has gotten this storm right.

Accu was calling for a Carolinas solution, then changed to North Florida/Georgia, now changed back.

Ophelia is a storm befitting her role in Shakespeare's 'Hamlet'

[Jim Hughes]

looks like it is heading ESE on satellite...

... man the NHC is having trouble predicting 6 hours out let alone 48

I hate to sound redundant but I told everyone this a couple of days ago. One can disregard what they want but sooner or later you are going to have to come around...if you want to understand these problems/phases ...in my opinion.


Jim

[HurricaneGirl]

Big Time Craziness, I say!

[crazycajuncane]

Big Time Craziness, I say!

Tell me about it... fighting for my name crazycajuncane!