JB'S "FREE" column today..Interesting indeed!

[hurricanedude]

WEATHER PATTERN OF SUMMER (TROF SPLIT, RIDGE BUILDING AND HOOKING, HURRICANES HITTING) IS STILL A FEW WEEKS AWAY FROM ENDING.

1.) Ophelia has taken dry air and shear and the below-normal water temperatures. Two out of three will be removed and the weakening trend will be halted and then reversed before landfall. Complete new Ophelia forecast will come out later this morning, but the track is still through eastern North Carolina and up along the East Coast to New England.

2.) Ophelia, like all the other landfalling storms, will hand itself off to the westerlies, but a northward move and subsequent trof are not a product of the pattern change, like with Opal or Hugo, for example (summer pattern ended after that storm). Instead, we get Ophelia-induced trof splits and we ramp it up again with more warmth and development threats in close for days 10-20.

3.) The western Caribbean is the next place to watch.

4.) Ideas above are supported strongly by a ridge over the Far East over the next 8-12 days, but the next round may be the last round of the pattern as a central Asian pattern starts change. Seasonal changes and analogs to past warm Septembers with active near-land pattern from Tropics are involved. Still, that is 2-3 weeks off.

5.) The moral is that there will be cool downs where it's warm from Texas to New England and the Lakes relative to a.) how warm it has been and b.) the normals (reversed anew).

6.) The 30-day SOI should be back to zero tomorrow or Wednesday.

7.) Eastern part of dry weather should reverse over the next 40-60 days due to warm water and tropical activity. No such assurance from the Appalachians westward.

8.) The pattern does offer hope for a warmer October for the West Coast, but much cooler in the Plains.

Notes: Many places from the Midwest to the East will have the hottest weather over the next couple of days until next summer season.

Ophelia, since yesterday, has come westward about 90 miles (by 8:00 a.m. eastern), and 40 of those miles were while it was listed as stationary. It must be that new math at work again.

Ciao for now.

[spinfan4eva]

Ophelia, since yesterday, has come westward about 90 miles (by 8:00 a.m. eastern), and 40 of those miles were while it was listed as stationary. It must be that new math at work again.

[Steve H.]

Boy, what was wrong with Bastardi on point-counterpoint this morning! Either he is suffering from sleep depravation or disinterest, or crying in his beer Gut needs to get over it