Potential for 95L...Significant system or dud?

[Anonymous]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

After speaking with Matt Carrier, and others....95L has been taking centerstage in my mind.

IF this system develops...we have a big problem in the making. The system is surviving the worst right now, and all I have seen is organization all day long. Good moisture axis, low shear ahead, and warm waters.

However, if this enters the Caribbean Sea, which I think it will...it could be a significant major hurricane. A strong anti-cyclone is expected to be over the system by the time it passes south of the TUTT...and the prime increasing sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean should feed the system. I believe that if this system makes it...which it appears to be doing, we may have a very serious Cat 4/5 hurricane on our hands. Of course, the name would be Philippe, which is French, pronounced "FE-LEEP".

Just some food for thought.

~Mike Naso

[skysummit]

Unbelievable Mike....another possible Cat 4 or 5. What a season.

[LAwxrgal]

And we thought last year was bad.

[Anonymous]

My numbers were:::

20/11/7

We have had:::

16/7/4

[Mattie]

Mike - after reading the "Erin" post which I missed in May, I don't think we need to hear any more predictions from you! Even insinuating the unspeakable ("Phillippe" and "French" = NO) is a nightmare in itself!!!

(Just teasing of course)

But on the other hand . . . . geez. . . and OH MY! if your category 4/5 thoughts were to materialize.

[wxmann_91]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

After speaking with Matt Carrier, and others....95L has been taking centerstage in my mind.

IF this system develops...we have a big problem in the making. The system is surviving the worst right now, and all I have seen is organization all day long. Good moisture axis, low shear ahead, and warm waters.

However, if this enters the Caribbean Sea, which I think it will...it could be a significant major hurricane. A strong anti-cyclone is expected to be over the system by the time it passes south of the TUTT...and the prime increasing sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean should feed the system. I believe that if this system makes it...which it appears to be doing, we may have a very serious Cat 4/5 hurricane on our hands. Of course, the name would be Philippe, which is French, pronounced "FE-LEEP".

Just some food for thought.

~Mike Naso

You have always been bullish, but I do agree with your statement, gut feeling tells me that this will be a big hurricane.

However, shear is plentiful everywhere, and whether 95L survives the next few days will determine if it will make it.

[Anonymous]

You have always been bullish

True...but only when I see the pattern. When Emily was weak, and sick looking, and even dubbed an "open wave" I kept my forecast of a Cat 4 in the Caribbean. Never backed down.

[hurricanefreak1988]

Argh. What's wrong with just simply using the name "Phillip"? They had to make it tough on us, didn't they.

Oh well. It'll get us one step closer to Alpha, so I'm not complaining.

[THead]

I don't like "where" it is either, being so far south, if it keeps trucking wnw and develops, seems we have another good chance at a US landfall. Not to mention the havoc it could wreak in the islands. Ok, my imagination is running away and ahead of itself, but after these last couple seasons......I can't help it.

[senorpepr]

Argh. What's wrong with just simply using the name "Phillip"? They had to make it tough on us, didn't they.

Oh well. It'll get us one step closer to Alpha, so I'm not complaining.

Well, they use names of those nationalities affected by tropical cyclones in the Atlantic... to be fair. Philippe is a French name representing the island nations in the Caribbean who are primarily French.

[LarryWx]

Historical tracks suggest that IF this system is first designated a TD between 55W and the Lesser Antilles and then moves mainly WNW well into the Caribbean, then it could easily be a threat to the U.S. ~7-10 days after forming. I found TEN storms that formed after 9/14 in that location that later hit the U.S. since 1851. Five of these ten hit the U.S. as a cat. 3+. Four of these five major hits were at the Gulf coast (three for W. FL or FL Panhandle and one LA) while one hit near the NC/SC border (Hazel).

What's interesting is that all ten U.S. hits occurred from 1873 through 1954. So, it has been 51 years since the last one. Are we "overdue"?? Also, all ten FORMED 9/21-10/11 (FOUR during 9/21-22).

Based on climo, it would probably be more of an eventual threat to the U.S. if it does, indeed, move into the Caribbean through the Lesser Antilles as opposed to moving north of there since the likelihood of recurvature would be much lower. Also, due to the very warm Caribbean SST's, the chances fo a major hit would be higher. However, by no means does that mean that one moving north of there hasn't and can't hit the U.S.

[hurricanefreak1988]

Well, they use names of those nationalities affected by tropical cyclones in the Atlantic... to be fair. Philippe is a French name representing the island nations in the Caribbean who are primarily French.

Ah, I see. So that's why we see the Latin American names in there, too.

[Anonymous]

(FE-LEEP-A) might have been cooler IMO...then again, (FILL) is a good name. Hurricane Philippe...hmm.

[Brent]

Yeah... I think this is going to be a big one too. The Caribbean has had 2 months since Emily to recover. Frightening.

Phillippe truly scares me. Wasn't there a hurricane that hit Puerto Rico and Miami called "San Felipe" in 1927?

[Anonymous]

Yeah... I think this is going to be a big one too. The Caribbean has had 2 months since Emily to recover. Frightening.

Phillippe truly scares me. Wasn't there a hurricane that hit Puerto Rico and Miami called "San Felipe" in 1927?

Well....that was the 1928 hurricane San "FEE-LEEP-A". This would be Hurricane "FEE-LEEP"

[SouthFloridawx]

cmc model

[SouthFloridawx]

GFS model

[gilbert88]

Yeah... I think this is going to be a big one too. The Caribbean has had 2 months since Emily to recover. Frightening.

Phillippe truly scares me. Wasn't there a hurricane that hit Puerto Rico and Miami called "San Felipe" in 1927?

Well....that was the 1928 hurricane San "FEE-LEEP-A". This would be Hurricane "FEE-LEEP"

I never thought the "P" name would ever be given to a nasty long tracker. "Phillippe" is just too "winter-sounding".

[SouthFloridawx]

gfdl

[SouthFloridawx]

UKMET