My thoughts on 95/96L

[Anonymous]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

95L in Red
96L in Pink

The arrow on the lines are 5 days out.

[HURAKAN]

You are saying that both will take the same track? THEN, I DECLARE SOUTH FLORIDA "UNDER ATTACK"!

[fci]

I find it HIGHLY unlikely that two systems would take the same track, albeit a few days apart.

[ConvergenceZone]

based on this track, both storms would go into the southern gulf of mexico and not bother anyone. Let's hope this is the case!!

[skysummit]

based on this track, both storms would go into the southern gulf of mexico and not bother anyone. Let's hope this is the case!!

Yea, let's hope this is the case and that high doesn't push off to the east at the last minute.

[EDR1222]

It will be interesting to see if the high holds its ground. Looks like the model runs right now are showing 96 heading more westward and 95 possibly turning more northward in time.

[wxmann_91]

based on this track, both storms would go into the southern gulf of mexico and not bother anyone. Let's hope this is the case!!

I think you're forgetting about Mexico, the FL Keys, and Cuba.

[HurricaneQueen]

based on this track, both storms would go into the southern gulf of mexico and not bother anyone. Let's hope this is the case!!

If taken literally, it looks as if the FL. Keys would certainly feel some effects of one or both.

LOL. wxmann_91 and I posted at the same time but I forgot to add our neighbors-Cuba and Mexico. I was thinking of the CONUS.

Lynn

[THead]

I find it HIGHLY unlikely that two systems would take the same track, albeit a few days apart.

Was highly unlikely two hurricanes would make landfall in the exact same spot too.....last year!

[gilbert88]

based on this track, both storms would go into the southern gulf of mexico and not bother anyone. Let's hope this is the case!!

This may be shocking to you, but there are people outside the U.S.

[WeatherEmperor]

That looks scary for Florida and folks beyond.

<RICKY>

[Deb321]

I find it HIGHLY unlikely that two systems would take the same track, albeit a few days apart.

Was highly unlikely two hurricanes would make landfall in the exact same spot too.....last year!

That was my thought last year Frances and Jeanne made landfall in about the same place 3 weeks apart and it was a nightmare for me.

[hurricanefloyd5]

I find it HIGHLY unlikely that two systems would take the same track, albeit a few days apart.

possible i mean look at frances and jeanne last year

[ConvergenceZone]

based on this track, both storms would go into the southern gulf of mexico and not bother anyone. Let's hope this is the case!!

I think you're forgetting about Mexico, the FL Keys, and Cuba.

I meant the best case for the USA. If the waves develop, they'll probably hit someone.

[weatherwindow]

mke...fully concur with your thoughts on 96L getting under ridge but with the caveat that if a cyclone spins up in the next 36 hours, i believe that it would acquire a bit of latitude prior to entering the GOM..likely east fla coast impact. it will be interesting to follow the evolution of the models after the possible development of this system in the southeast bahamas. most of the globals are still handling it as a trof. as for 95, the longer actual cyclogenesis is delayed, the further west it will travel. i still feel that the weakness persisting to its norlth will eventrually impart a northwest to north track east of the mona passage. that said, the dynamic and statistical still diverge(surprise) and the relatively low latitude of the incipient center, 12.5 deg, certainly increases its chances of possibly missing the full impact of the trof.......................rich

[abajan]

based on this track, both storms would go into the southern gulf of mexico and not bother anyone. Let's hope this is the case!!

I think you're forgetting about Mexico, the FL Keys, and Cuba.

...and the Leeward Islands and the Bahamas!

Anyway, IMHO 95L is unlikely to significantly affect anyone (in the short term). Right now, it seems the tracks are trending for a decidedly northward movement. However, at this stage, one would need a crystal ball to know if the CONUS is in the clear or not.

[OURAGAN]

OURAGAN
Tropical Wave



Joined: 07 Aug 2004
Posts: 37
Location: GUADELOUPE
Posted: Sat Sep 17, 2005 7:40 am Post subject:

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The numerical models continue to say this future depression soon ,will go north, but the last loop continue to show a w to west north west track.
Are the numérical models wrong?
I think the north turn if it occur, will be later than the numérical models say.
What do you think about it?

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[Skyline]

I agree with weatherwindow, the longer tropical development is delayed the longer 96L will move West, if only since this has been the general trend so far this year. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATA ... ecent.html

However, I think it is a little premature and a little against the overall and complete model trend to have 96L follow a southern path towards Florida. This is especially true when each and every single model supports the idea that 96L will move well North and East and out into the Mid-Atlantic. Every model guidance product shows the dominate Atlantic high-pressure moving East towards Europe into next week.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/GFST ... sloop.html
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

We will have to wait and see if the High builds back-in, and just about every model supports the idea the 96L will become a hurricane to contend with.

[pup55]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2005091700&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=120hr

The 120h cmc has a major in the atlantic and a little brother growing up in the GOM

[krysof]

Where could this potential big monster go?