My Forecast for TD-18 (RITA)

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My Forecast for TD-18 (RITA)

#1 Postby Anonymous » Sun Sep 18, 2005 11:18 am

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Image

12 HRS: 45 KT
24 HRS: 65 KT
36 HRS: 85 KT
48 HRS: 90 KT (NEAR FL KEYS)
72 HRS: 105 KT
96 HRS: 110 KT
120 HRS: 120 KT
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WindRunner
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#2 Postby WindRunner » Sun Sep 18, 2005 11:30 am

Dangerous, yet it (unfortunately) sounds likely at this point.
Last edited by WindRunner on Sun Sep 18, 2005 11:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#3 Postby Swimdude » Sun Sep 18, 2005 11:35 am

Yup, no disagreements here. The NHC always under-estimates the intensity; we all know that. This is certainly more possible.
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#4 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Sep 18, 2005 11:38 am

Swimdude wrote:Yup, no disagreements here. The NHC always under-estimates the intensity; we all know that. This is certainly more possible.


they dont always underestimte intensity. if you read the discussions which i doubt, you would know that intensity forecasting is a real mystery. lets hope it doesnt get too strong and hit your area. good luck
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#5 Postby hicksta » Sun Sep 18, 2005 11:39 am

I think you might be a little to far south, intesity probably right on sadly =/
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#6 Postby LAwxrgal » Sun Sep 18, 2005 11:40 am

Unfortunately I agree with you regarding intensity. The water in that part of the Gulf is boiling as the eastern GOM was for Kat. My guess is the further north she goes the weaker she will be, and the further west she goes the stronger she will be.
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#7 Postby ChaserUK » Sun Sep 18, 2005 11:43 am

yep that water is darn hot at the moment - not sure what you guys think of these charts but they do paint a poor picture of what we could expect.


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#8 Postby wxwatcher91 » Sun Sep 18, 2005 11:53 am

I still want to stay conservative on the strength. (and this is saying something because I usually am way too liberal with the strength lol)

I think that the dry air over the Gulf might limit some of the strengthing...
STILL I'm thinking it could reach 120-130 at landfall in the Gulf...

I'm not sure...
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#9 Postby wxman57 » Sun Sep 18, 2005 11:57 am

wxwatcher91 wrote:I still want to stay conservative on the strength. (and this is saying something because I usually am way too liberal with the strength lol)

I think that the dry air over the Gulf might limit some of the strengthing...
STILL I'm thinking it could reach 120-130 at landfall in the Gulf...

I'm not sure...


A strong 3, nearly a Cat 4 (well above any model guidance) is conservative? ;-)
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#10 Postby wxwatcher91 » Sun Sep 18, 2005 12:08 pm

wxman57 wrote:
wxwatcher91 wrote:I still want to stay conservative on the strength. (and this is saying something because I usually am way too liberal with the strength lol)

I think that the dry air over the Gulf might limit some of the strengthing...
STILL I'm thinking it could reach 120-130 at landfall in the Gulf...

I'm not sure...


A strong 3, nearly a Cat 4 (well above any model guidance) is conservative? ;-)


1) compared to Floydbusters 120kt prediction
and
2) compared to my usual 200kt predictions :lol:
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#11 Postby Portastorm » Sun Sep 18, 2005 12:09 pm

wxwatcher91 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
wxwatcher91 wrote:I still want to stay conservative on the strength. (and this is saying something because I usually am way too liberal with the strength lol)

I think that the dry air over the Gulf might limit some of the strengthing...
STILL I'm thinking it could reach 120-130 at landfall in the Gulf...

I'm not sure...


A strong 3, nearly a Cat 4 (well above any model guidance) is conservative? ;-)


1) compared to Floydbusters 120kt prediction
and
2) compared to my usual 200kt predictions :lol:


You'd like to see the rating system go up to Cat 10, wouldn't you?!

HA! :lol:
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#12 Postby wxwatcher91 » Sun Sep 18, 2005 12:49 pm

Portastorm wrote:
wxwatcher91 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
wxwatcher91 wrote:I still want to stay conservative on the strength. (and this is saying something because I usually am way too liberal with the strength lol)

I think that the dry air over the Gulf might limit some of the strengthing...
STILL I'm thinking it could reach 120-130 at landfall in the Gulf...

I'm not sure...


A strong 3, nearly a Cat 4 (well above any model guidance) is conservative? ;-)


1) compared to Floydbusters 120kt prediction
and
2) compared to my usual 200kt predictions :lol:


You'd like to see the rating system go up to Cat 10, wouldn't you?!

HA! :lol:


8-) :wink: :lol:
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#13 Postby EDR1222 » Sun Sep 18, 2005 1:20 pm

Hopefully, if it does become a strong hurricane, it will do so over the open Gulf of Mexico and maybe have a chance to weaken before it comes ashore anywhere. The biggest concern would be in the western Gulf where the waters are extremely warm right now.
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