AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
315 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2005
.
.LONG-TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MAJOR ISSUE THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE IS TROPICAL STORM RITA WHICH IS PROGGED TO ENTER THE GULFMEX
AND EVENTUALLY BECOME A HURRICANE. MAJOR QUESTION ON WHERE THE
SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY GO ALL DEPENDS ON HOW LONG THE UPPER RIDGE
MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AND HOW FAST RITA MOVES. THE BETTER THE
RIDGE MAINTAINS ITSELF AND THE FASTER THE RITA MOVES...THE FURTHER
SOUTH IT WILL STAY. IF THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SOONER AND THE SYSTEM
IS SLOWER...THEN THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THIS STORM TO HIT THE
TEXAS COAST. AT THIS TIME...AND AFTER HAVING DISCUSSED THIS WITH
KEWX AND KBRO (AND 12 PLANET WITH KHGX)...WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW HPC
TRACK FOR DAYS 6 AND 7 WHICH WOULD PUT THE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
CRP AND BRO. OBVIOUSLY...ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS FROM WFO CRP AND NHC CONCERNING THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER
SITUATION. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AND A LOT OF TIME TO GO
BEFORE THE TRACK OF RITA BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT COAST
THEN ALL AREAS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FORECAST TRACK WILL DETERMINE
HOW POPS WILL BE NEEDED TO BE ARRANGED LATER IN THE FORECAST. UNTIL
THEN...SIG WEATHER NIL THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGE REMAINS BUT
DOES WEAKEN SOMEWHAT. NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY (DID INCREASE LOW TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO FOR COLLABORATION).
DECREASED TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BASED ON THE FACT
AREA WILL LIKELY HAVE RAIN-COOLED AIR AND WILL ALSO BE CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGY (BETTER TO GO WITH GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTIES[/b]
