Probably a STUPID question BUT...what the heck

[azsnowman]

I "know" this is a stupid question, I'm new at the this hurricane bit BUT.....why has there been SO MANY blasted hurricanes, tropical systems this year? This has been the BUSIEST I've seen it, the most deadliest year?? I mean H***, if I lived along the GC or ANYWHERE along the coast for that matter, I'd be looking for a NEW HOME and ASAP!! I don't know HOW y'all that are living in those areas are doing it, my friggin' nerves would be SHOT by now!!

Dennis

[gilbert88]

The only thing preventing 2005 from becoming the deadliest tropical season ever is that the most vulnerable areas (Central America and Haiti) have been mostly spared so far...

[Brent]

Well... we're in an active cycle right now(have been since 1995), look back at the 30's, 40's, and 50's, back then, even with no satellites and recon flights, they had a bunch of really active years.

It just so happens that this year we've had a lot of storms form close to home which prevents them from recurving.

[arcticfire]

My opinion is it's a side effect of global warming that has yet to be classified fully. I don't buy the whole "cycle" theory. But the trendy answer to you question for now would be "we are in a busy cycle".

[GalvestonDuck]

I "know" this is a stupid question, I'm new at the this hurricane bit BUT.....why has there been SO MANY blasted hurricanes, tropical systems this year? This has been the BUSIEST I've seen it, the most deadliest year?? I mean H***, if I lived along the GC or ANYWHERE along the coast for that matter, I'd be looking for a NEW HOME and ASAP!! I don't know HOW y'all that are living in those areas are doing it, my friggin' nerves would be SHOT by now!!

Dennis

No offense, Dennis, but I have one word for ya -- wildfires.



You don't plan on moving, right?

[wxmann_91]

Well, the people living along the Gulf Coast probably think that hurricanes are just a part of life, and that the place they live in is the best place in the world.

I wouldn't move out of California despite the quakes, and trust me, because of their unpredicableness, quakes can be much more deadly and destructive. But this place is so beautiful and the people are great - won't move.

[Derecho]

My opinion is it's a side effect of global warming that has yet to be classified fully. I don't buy the whole "cycle" theory. But the trendy answer to you question for now would be "we are in a busy cycle".

The 20-30 year cycle is blatantly obvious when graphed, going back past 1900.

The problem is people got used to a down cycle "as "normal."

[jes]

I know what you mean --- I've had a couple of my out of town friends ask if I'm considering moving. I have certainly thought about it, but how can every person along the entire coast move? No, this is our home. Personally, I'll spend next winter finding ways to make my home safer for next season.

[arcticfire]

My opinion is it's a side effect of global warming that has yet to be classified fully. I don't buy the whole "cycle" theory. But the trendy answer to you question for now would be "we are in a busy cycle".

The 20-30 year cycle is blatantly obvious when graphed, going back past 1900.

The problem is people got used to a down cycle "as "normal."

Not that I really want to debate this , because I partly agree with you that peoples suprise is mostly cause they got used to the super calm climate of 1960-1990's. However,

Be carefull just how mush stock you throw into pre-1940 data sets. For sake of argument we'll call the information from 1850+ valid. Thats a whooping 150 years of recording. Far to small a sampling size to claim a consistant permanent cycle when speaking in 30-40 year cycles. Just imagine a genetisist mapping the human genome with that attitude "ok got 4 chromazoms mapped , lets repeat that a few hundred times and call it good".

In any case the planets temp has risin by an average of 1 deg over the past century. Again you could say no way to really know if thats a natural flux or not , you would be right hence the global warming debate. However what we do know is CO2 levels havn't been this high for 1 million years. Anyone know the hurricain cycle 1 million years ago ?

Point being , it's folly to blindly tout a cycle given a tiny sampling. Global warming certainly could be having a major impact , just because the studies havn't been done yet does not mean it's not happening. Remember the world was flat once too.

The fun thing about this debate is we won't know the answer for another 20 years or so when the cycle people claim everything will go back to "calm".

[BamaBelle]

Well, the people living along the Gulf Coast probably think that hurricanes are just a part of life, and that the place they live in is the best place in the world.

You are right in this assumption...It is a part of living here and you either accept it or move...some move most of us deal with it because we love where we live.

[senorpepr]

My opinion is it's a side effect of global warming that has yet to be classified fully. I don't buy the whole "cycle" theory. But the trendy answer to you question for now would be "we are in a busy cycle".

My two cents that I will toss in is this: If Global warming is to blame... why is global tropical cyclone activity been on the low side for several years?

[bayoubebe]

I have a stupid question also.

Which thread do I go to see your(posters) predictions on where Rita will make landfall?

I tend to think what you guys say here makes the most sense and is the most up to date.

Lordy, I don't feel like evacuating again, the kids just went back to school here too.

[kevin]

It'll take more than all the tropical cyclones in the world to get me to leave.

[mtm4319]

Which thread do I go to see your(posters) predictions on where Rita will make landfall?

I tend to think what you guys say here makes the most sense and is the most up to date.

The professional forecasters make their predictions here, while some amateur forecasts (including mine ) are scattered throughout this forum.

[bayoubebe]

It'll take more than all the tropical cyclones in the world to get me to leave.

Where do you live?

I'm about 12 miles outside of N.O.

[bayoubebe]

Which thread do I go to see your(posters) predictions on where Rita will make landfall?

I tend to think what you guys say here makes the most sense and is the most up to date.

The professional forecasters make their predictions here, while some amateur forecasts (including mine ) are scattered throughout this forum.

Thank you.

[azsnowman]

I "know" this is a stupid question, I'm new at the this hurricane bit BUT.....why has there been SO MANY blasted hurricanes, tropical systems this year? This has been the BUSIEST I've seen it, the most deadliest year?? I mean H***, if I lived along the GC or ANYWHERE along the coast for that matter, I'd be looking for a NEW HOME and ASAP!! I don't know HOW y'all that are living in those areas are doing it, my friggin' nerves would be SHOT by now!!

Dennis

No offense, Dennis, but I have one word for ya -- wildfires.



You don't plan on moving, right?

*sigh*.....no offenese taken however, guess you didn't read one of my posts regarding this matter!

Let's back track here. Wildfires CAN be stopped, you can PREVENT your home from being totally destroyed by thinning your property, wildfires DON'T/CAN'T occur in the same place month after month, year after year.

Honestly, that wasn't my point, just curious why this season seems to be and may possibly be on it's way to being one of the busiest "I've" seen since I've been keeping an eye out for hurricanes that's all

Dennis

[Doc Seminole]

I am unable to express my opinion on this board as it is politically incorrect and is not based on scientific facts that the human brain can comprehend even though my source is based upon the author of weather. PM me if you would like my opinion.


Doc Seminole

[Mac]

My opinion is it's a side effect of global warming that has yet to be classified fully. I don't buy the whole "cycle" theory. But the trendy answer to you question for now would be "we are in a busy cycle".

My two cents that I will toss in is this: If Global warming is to blame... why is global tropical cyclone activity been on the low side for several years?

And the second part to senorperpr's reasoning would follow something like this--

Even if the increase in activity is due to global warming, how do you intend to link global warming to human behavior?

There is little doubt that the earth is going through a warming phase. But I have yet to see any proof whatsoever that this trend is due to human behavior rather than part of a normal cycle. Granted, it's possible. But there is no scientific proof to back this claim up. Until there is, it's bunk.

[bvigal]

I am unable to express my opinion on this board as it is politically incorrect and is not based on scientific facts that the human brain can comprehend even though my source is based upon the author of weather. PM me if you would like my opinion.
Doc Seminole

Me too! And look how we've 'progressed', that we must hide and be quiet, lest someone be offended. Ya think Franklin, Jefferson, & buddies ever imagined the twisting of guaranteed liberties into supression of the same?