IWIC Tropical Storm Blanca Discussion #2, 5:00 PM EDT June 18, 2003
This is an unofficial product, and is NOT from the National Hurricane Center.
The center of Blanca is located near 16.8N 104.5W, and is moving towards the west-northwest at 2 knots. Maximum sustained winbds have increased to 50 knots, and mimum central pressure is estimated to be near 997 millibars.
Blanca is showing some signs of weakening today. The convective pattern has become much less spherical, and the circulation remains on the eastern edge of the main convection. It appears that shear driven from the anticyclone to the east is beginning to have a negative impact on Blanca. Furthermore, Blanca is not too far off from cooler sea surface temperatures and stable air. Since the shear is not all that bad just yet, we will keep it at a steady intensity through the next 24 hours followed by weakening as the shear increases and it approaches cooler temperatures. The conditions do not seem to favor Blanca becoming a hurricane.
Trackwise, a continued slow west-northwest motion is anticipated in the near future due to the response a ridge weakness to the north. Later in the forecast period, the ridge should become more established; therefore a curve more towards the west is likely. Since Blanca is small in size, most of the heavy rainbands remain offshore the Mexican coast.
Intensity Forecast
Initial: 50KT
12HR: 50KT
24HR: 45KT
36HR: 35KT
48HR: 30KT
72HR: 25KT
Track Forecast Graphic
