Rita's accellerating rate of intensification

[x-y-no]

Rate of pressure drop in Rita:

Code: Select all

9/20  5pm  973mb 
9/20 11pm  965mb   rate: 1.33 mb/hour
9/21  5am  956mb   rate: 1.5 mb/hour
9/21 11am  944mb   rate: 2 mb/hour
9/21  2pm  920mb   rate: 8 mb/hour  (3 hour interval)


Gilbert set the Atlantic record for a 24-hour period at 3mb/hour. That's the rate Rita has averaged over the last 15, but she's accelerating. Can she beat Gilbert's record?

For the record, the worldwide record for a 24-hour drop is 100mb (Typhoon Forrest in September 1983) and the fastest recorded rate was hurricane Beulah (6.33 mb/hour for 6 hours).

EDIT: Screwed up the rate on the last 3-hour segment. fixed now.

[P.K.]

100hPa in just 24 hours?? Over four times the rate needed to be bombing!

[mtm4319]

Rate of pressure drop in Rita:

Code: Select all

9/20  5pm  973mb 
9/20 11pm  965mb   rate: 1.33 mb/hour
9/21  5am  956mb   rate: 1.5 mb/hour
9/21 11am  944mb   rate: 2 mb/hour
9/21  2pm  920mb   rate" 4 mb/hour


Gilbert set the Atlantic record for a 24-hour period at 3mb/hour. That's the rate Rita has averaged over the last 15, but she's accelerating. Can she beat Gilbert's record?

As quickly as Rita is strengthening, I don't think she can beat Gilbert. Rita would have to be at 901mb by 5pm, or 893mb by 11pm, to tie Gilbert.

[x-y-no]

Rate of pressure drop in Rita:

Code: Select all

9/20  5pm  973mb 
9/20 11pm  965mb   rate: 1.33 mb/hour
9/21  5am  956mb   rate: 1.5 mb/hour
9/21 11am  944mb   rate: 2 mb/hour
9/21  2pm  920mb   rate" 4 mb/hour


Gilbert set the Atlantic record for a 24-hour period at 3mb/hour. That's the rate Rita has averaged over the last 15, but she's accelerating. Can she beat Gilbert's record?

As quickly as Rita is strengthening, I don't think she can beat Gilbert. Rita would have to be at 901mb by 5pm, or 893mb by 11pm, to tie Gilbert.

Well, getting to 893 by 11pm would only require sustaining the 3mb/hour rate she has had for the last 15 hours. Perhaps unlikely, but possible.

[curtadams]

The deepening apparently happened overnight. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/odt/odt3.html The freakishly high intensification this morning is illusory; NHC estimates primarily from hard measures like radar and vortex and was forced to guess at her measurements this morning. They underestimated. Maximum rate looks to be about 50 hpa in 13 hours. However, these are estimates from satellite presentation and don't count for the record.

[x-y-no]

Updated numbers:

Code: Select all

9/20  5pm  973mb 
9/20 11pm  965mb   rate: 1.33 mb/hour
9/21  5am  956mb   rate: 1.5 mb/hour
9/21 11am  944mb   rate: 2 mb/hour
9/21  5pm  914mb   rate: 5 mb/hour
9/21  11pm  897mb   rate: 2.83 mb/hour


24 hour drop 68mb (2.83 mb/hour)

Only missed Gilbert's record by 4mb.

[linkerweather]

8 pm tuesday 969 mb
8 pm wed 898 mb

[jasons2k]

Anyone listening?

He is still saying far south Texas. I can see some of his reasoning but does he have to be so foul-mouthed? He's bashing JB, bashing the NHC, and bashing Steve Lyons ("bald-headed nut on TWC"). Personally I find that over the top and offensive. Sounds like he has a complex to me, regardless of his forecasting skill.

[NCHurricane]

Man, that's just incredible.

Rita, you can stop strengthening anytime now. Thanks.

Chuck
http://www.nchurricane.com

[Andy_L]

Anyone listening?

He is still saying far south Texas. I can see some of his reasoning but does he have to be so foul-mouthed? He's bashing JB, bashing the NHC, and bashing Steve Lyons ("bald-headed nut on TWC"). Personally I find that over the top and offensive. Sounds like he has a complex to me, regardless of his forecasting skill.

I'll bite...who's DT? i know what NHCWX is....but who is DT?

[x-y-no]

8 pm tuesday 969 mb
8 pm wed 898 mb

Thanks, missed that ... so missed Gilbert's record by 1mb.

[x-y-no]

Anyone listening?

He is still saying far south Texas. I can see some of his reasoning but does he have to be so foul-mouthed? He's bashing JB, bashing the NHC, and bashing Steve Lyons ("bald-headed nut on TWC"). Personally I find that over the top and offensive. Sounds like he has a complex to me, regardless of his forecasting skill.

Yeah, a little respect wouldn't hurt.

Stacy Stewart's discussion made it clear the NHC forecasters are well aware of the issues DT is raising.

And I kept pointing out in the studio chat that the 0z nogaps has shifted way right, but that got ignored.

[sponger]

s quickly as Rita is strengthening, I don't think she can beat Gilbert. Rita would have to be at 901mb by 5pm, or 893mb by 11pm, to tie Gilbert.


mtm, not rubbing it in by any means. If you had called for this at 3:00, I would have thought you had gone off the deep end. Just goes to show that this season, all bets are really off. I have been watching the tropics for 20 years and I am in awe!

[THead]

Call me crazy but the last image before blackout looks like she's sucking in some dry air on the south side, or something is making her look more ragged on the south side?