Rita A Bit Faster to the Coast?

[MWatkins]

Again…basing this only on the 10AM CDT advisory position and a recon fix from 2PM CDT (a 4 hour span) it’s pretty clear that Rita is ahead of schedule and a tad right of the forecast track.

At 10AM the center was near 27.4 92.0
At 2PM CDT the center was near 28.0 92.5

Extrapolating that same motion over the next 12 hours:

At 6PM CDT: 28.6N 93.0W
At 10PM CDT: 29.2N 93.5W
At 2AM CDT: 29.8N 94.0W

And the landfall on that track should occur around 3 to 4AM CDT.

IF, and that is a big IF the present trend holds the landfall will occur a little earlier and a little to the east of the current forecast track. Hard to measure these things over a 4 hour motion but will be interesting to see if the hurricane center moves the track ahead and very little to the right. However…it’s not going to make much of an overall difference to the landfall area…it will still be bad.

MW

[DESTRUCTION5]

Been Busy huh MW?

[MWatkins]

Been Busy huh MW?

Unfortunately...yeah...but it's Friday...I'll be around quite a bit tonight.

Hopefully everyone is set up and ready...there isn't any time left for moving around and what not. The latest NHC forecast position isn't as fast as the motion I listed up there...so perhaps my math is off a bit...I suppose we'll see.

MW

[sunny]

Do you think Lake Charles for landfall?

[arkess7]

yea its hauling butt towards the coast.........landfall before 5 or 6 am i guess........just my opinion....but it sure looks like it.....HUNKER DOWN!!!and i will pray for everyone 2night......if i go to sleep....

[Brent]

Looks like 2-3am... freaking middle of the night.

[CajunMama]

KPLC out of Lake Charles is saying landfall around midnight. That's what they said...I don't know.

[Ivanhater]

Looks like 2-3am... freaking middle of the night.

same time as ivan, scary as h*LL those night time ones

[MWatkins]

Again…basing this only on the 10AM CDT advisory position and a recon fix from 2PM CDT (a 4 hour span) it’s pretty clear that Rita is ahead of schedule and a tad right of the forecast track.

At 10AM the center was near 27.4 92.0
At 2PM CDT the center was near 28.0 92.5

Extrapolating that same motion over the next 12 hours:

At 6PM CDT: 28.6N 93.0W
At 10PM CDT: 29.2N 93.5W
At 2AM CDT: 29.8N 94.0W

And the landfall on that track should occur around 3 to 4AM CDT.

IF, and that is a big IF the present trend holds the landfall will occur a little earlier and a little to the east of the current forecast track. Hard to measure these things over a 4 hour motion but will be interesting to see if the hurricane center moves the track ahead and very little to the right. However…it’s not going to make much of an overall difference to the landfall area…it will still be bad.

MW

Looks like we will indeed get the landfall faster than forecast 12 hours ago...and near 3 to 4AM CDT. The only change is the slight shift to the east...I am very concerned for the Lake Charles/Cameron area. The surge there is going to be significant.

Actually...looking at the latest info...looks like this projection was not as bad as I thought...landfall in about 1 hour from this post....

AT 2 AM CDT...0700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 93.7 WEST OR ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SABINE PASS ALONG THE GULF COAST AT THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER.

MW