Storm Surge Questions

[inotherwords]

Our Sarasota met, Bob Harrigan, whom I respect a great deal, says that the largest storm surge we could ever expect in this area is 18 feet due to topography.

I am 1/2 mile as the crow flies from the Gulf and just 13 feet above sea level. I am in a flood zone but my house (a really solid med revival single story stucco house) was built in the 1920s, so it has not seen anything really significant stormwise since it was built in 1924. There was maybe the Labor Day storm, a storm in the '40s, and Donna in 1960, but that's been it for "big" storms. There are barrier islands on either side of the gulf inlet 1/2 mile from my house. The inlet is not very wide. I live on a peninsula with two creeks on either side of it, one 300 feet from me and the other about 1/4 mile from me. The southernmost point of the peninsula is about 1/4 mile from me and another 1/4 mile across the bay to the inlet to the gulf between two barrier islands. Both these creeks feed into the bay, which feed into the intracoastal and eventually to the gulf. I hope this description is fairly clear.

I am having a hard time understanding the worst case scenario for my area and how high the water might come up in my house. I know I will evacuate if a bad storm is coming (and I did twice last year), but I'd like to really have a better grasp on how high the water could come up in my house if we have maximum storm surge plus waves. I know it's not as simple as saying 18 - 13 = 5.

I'm not posting this to be flamed or controversial. I'm just trying to figure out if I want to build a second story to this house and put a safe room up there, plus storage for my more perishable posessions.

Thanks in advance for any insight into this that anyone might provide.

[wxman57]

If you send me your address via PM, I'll try to run a SLOSH MEOW (Maximum Envelope Of Water) for your area if that basin is in the model. It's kind of beteen Ft. Myers and Tampa, so I'm not sure if it'll be in there, though.

[inotherwords]

Thanks so much! I've sent my address. I'm between Ft. Myers and Tampa, so I hope it works.

It would be interesting to learn what this model is and how it's created.