A LOOK IN THE TROPICS

[audioslave8]

It looks like another week or 2 we might have better conditions. I see alot of dry air at the moment. The most this whole season in the GOM. I dont think we will see too much development there unless it moves out pretty quick for possibly future Stan to become any big factor at all for the Gulf. This dry air in place is extended out in big pockets all the way to the cape verde islands off the Africa coast. We will have to see a big breakdown of that dry air to see any major devlopment for any big hurricanes. It is still possible we could see maybe a depression/storm or 2 but thats about it. Nothing major in the near future. I think once we get into early weeks of October we will see another major cane form but it might not make it to the U.S. with Fall arriving and those powerful cold fronts that will speed off the East coast every week now will be full of the driest air yet that should deflect the storms and fizzle them out with strong sheering winds. Im just looking at the facts right now. As we all know though things can change and suprise us just like it has already this year. Since we have not had any true Cape Verde storms form this year I feel more confident now that the southeast coast will not have too much to deal with except maybe for southern Florida with storms that could form again where Katrina did since that will be the warmest waters going into the end of hurricane season. I would bet mid October thru November most storms that form will be in the southern Caribbean and Bahamas. Some will form out of stalled out fronts extending down to those areas. I have been watching Hurricanes for over 20 years and i'll tell you one thing if all that African dust, dry air, and big winds over the eastern Atlantic would not have been in place August and September we would of seen some major storms like Floyd and Hugo hit Florida to the Carolinas. It would of been terrible. It would of been like the GOM one after another im afraid. Even though this year will go down in the record books just think it could of been way way much worse especially with all the big healthy waves that have been coming off the African coast the last 2 months.

[Ixolib]

Good point... And to think that we are only in the early stages of a 10 to 15 year cycle - what do the future seasons have in store???