And the environment? So-so where it is right now, brutal ahead. At its present location, shear is not all that strong, SSTs are plenty warm, but the air is somewhat dry (typical for June). Not the best conditions you can have, but not completely hostile either. IMO such an environment translates to either no change in strength, or even slight organization. With that being said, it is not impossible for slow development from this over the next day or so.
BUT...there's a catch. The models come in agreement on intensifying the shear zone to the west of the wave during the near future. Once this system hits 40W...say in 48 hours...BAM. Right smack-dab into the shear. This will halt the potential for development, and if it's somehow a TD by then, it will die. Oh, and I almost forgot to mention that the air is less saturated further ahead. Dry air = storm in the emergency room. Not a pretty sight if you're the kind of person that likes seeing stuff get their act together.
To sum it up...don't be surprised if we see some slow organization during the next day or so. Conditions, in the mean time, are marginally favorable. I'm not even ruling out a TD, but as it moves further west it will encounter a more hostile environment. Don't expect a TS; simply due to the lack of time to strengthen. Graphic I made on this wave is below.
[/img]
