Personal Thoughts on the Remainder of the 2005 Season

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Storm 2K Disclaimer: The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The following post is speculation on tropical cyclone activity for the Atlantic Basin ONLY for the Months October 2005, November 2005, and December 2005.

I felt the need to make this post...separate from my original seasonal outlooks. I'm going to discuss past climatology and how we might see this season end up on a month by month basis through the remainder of the season (including December).

CLIMATOLOGY AND FACTORS

Before I begin, I feel the need to give a little history by showing the Oct-Dec of 1933, 1995, 2001, 2003, and 2004...followed by a short discussion

*Month by month numbers based on date of formation.

1933
OCT- 3 Named Storms, 2 Hurricanes, 1 Major (4)
NOV- 1 Named Storm
DEC- 0
TOT- 4 Named Storms, 2 Hurricanes, 1 Major (4)

1995
OCT- 4 Named Storms, 2 Hurricanes, 1 Major (3)
NOV- 0
DEC- 0
TOT- 4 Named Storms, 2 Hurricanes, 1 Major (3)

2001
OCT- 5 Named Storms, 3 Hurricanes, 2 Major (4,4)
NOV- 2 Named Storms, 2 Hurricanes
DEC- 0
TOT- 7 Named Storms, 5 Hurricanes, 2 Major (4,4)

2003
OCT- 2 Named Storms
NOV- 0
DEC- 2 Named Storms
TOT- 4 Named Storms

2004
OCT- 2 Named Storms
NOV- 1 Named Storm
DEC- 0
TOT- 3 Named Storms


Now my reason for showing all of these is not for strict comparison...I included 2001 to show how active an Oct-Dec can get, and 2004 to show how inactive it can be. 1933 and 1995 were the main comparison tools in this case, and we noticed that they had 4 named storms each, and 1 major hurricane.

In terms of factors, we must notice that it looks like we will not be seeing an El Nino develop that will preclude any late season activity. It is also crucial to note that we still have very high SSTs, especially in the Western Caribbean and in spots through the Gulf of Mexico.

OCTOBER

In this month, we still have many factors left over from September. I believe we will see at least 1 major hurricane in the Western Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico a la Mitch or Opal (probably will be a category 4 considering the sea surface temperatures). Other than that, we are probably looking at:

4 Tropical Depressions
3 Named Storms (possible 4 but I leaned on the conservative side)
2 Hurricanes (looking for a category 1 sometime)
1 Major Hurricane

*NOTE: THIS DOES NOT INCLUDE 19L AS IT FORMED PRIOR TO OCTOBER 1.

NOVEMBER

I am very 50/50ish on the prospects of seeing a major hurricane in this month a la Michelle or Lenny. I do believe it is possible though. I will, however, lean on the conservative side, and not call for one...although again, it is possible

2 Named Storms (possible 3, but I leaned on the conservative side again)
1 Hurricane

DECEMBER

Just for kicks, we will probably see one December storm. Whether or not it is a hangover from November remains to be seen though....but like in previous years it will most likely be a baroclinic-turned-tropical cyclone.

1 Named Storm (Could become a hurricane though, Note: Noel, Olga 2001 for example...and Peter almost was one in 2003)


So in total, for the remainder of the year, I am expecting:

7 Tropical Depressions
6 Named Storms
3 Hurricanes
1 Major Hurricane (probably a category 4)

However, Mother Nature does like to throw surprises...so we shall see where we will end up!

[Storm Chaser]

The people that have suffered through this hurricane season (both professional and regular civilians) and last year's hurricane season; I think they have seen enough to last them for several seasons to come. From a professional side, I have become exhausted from the past two seasons. I covered several hurricanes last year, and I've only covered a handful this year. When I get called, I have to go. We're all tired of dealing with these systems right now. The past few years; it just seems we live out of the weather vans and boarded up hotels.

[WindRunner]

So . . . Gamma sounds like fun.

When you look at it like that, it doesn't seem that far out of the question. I guess it really is a possibility.

[fasterdisaster]

I think your forecast is pretty good, as the tropics are beginning to act up again, and people will always say that "the season is over." I think also we will have several named storms from here on out.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

I completely agree storm....This season has worn me and others out to an extreme. Fortunately the remainder of this season should not send us a truckload of major hurricanes making landfall.

[fasterdisaster]

I think we will see one more major hurricane make landfall, not necessarily in the US, but somewhere, probably the Caribbean. Things are looking like they will be favorable there for the rest of the season.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

I'm thinking if we see a Caribbean-only major hurricane, it would happen in November...or perhaps late october, hanging over into November.

I have a feeling though that we will probably see 1 more in the Gulf of Mexico...maybe ala Emily and Roxanne-1995.

[WeatherEmperor]

I think we will get very close to running out of names this season. Im still sticking with 20/21 named storms though.

<RICKY>