Whats This??? Area in NW Caribbean near Yucatan

[Windtalker1]

Coming off the Yucatan??? Our next system??? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[HurricaneGirl]

Oh dear!

[Windtalker1]

Answered my own question....Sorry for the double post. Flood Watch
FLOOD WATCH...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
745 AM EDT WED OCT 5 2005

FLZ063-066>075-052130-
/X.CON.KMFL.FA.A.0007.051005T2300Z-051007T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GLADES-HENDRY-PALM BEACH WESTERN-PALM BEACH EASTERN-
WESTERN COLLIER-EASTERN COLLIER-WESTERN BROWARD-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-WESTERN DADE-DADE METROPOLITAN-
MAINLAND MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOORE HAVEN...CLEWISTON...LA BELLE...
BIG CYPRESS SEMINOLE RESERVATION...BELLE GLADE...
WEST PALM BEACH...NAPLES...IMMOKALEE...
MICCOSUKEE INDIAN RESERVATION...FORT LAUDERDALE...SHARK VALLEY...
MIAMI...FLAMINGO
745 AM EDT WED OCT 5 2005

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...
IN SOUTH FLORIDA...BROWARD METROPOLITAN...DADE METROPOLITAN...
EASTERN COLLIER...GLADES...HENDRY...MAINLAND MONROE...PALM
BEACH EASTERN...PALM BEACH WESTERN...WESTERN BROWARD...WESTERN
COLLIER AND WESTERN DADE.

* FROM 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING

* TROPICAL STORM TAMMY HAS FORMED JUST OFFSHORE CAPE CANAVERAL AND
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWEST PARALLEL TO THE NORTH FLORIDA
COASTLINE. WHILE TAMMY IS ALREADY WELL NORTH OF SOUTH
FLORIDA...A DEEP AND VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

* WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED TODAY ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA IN LOOSE ASSOCIATION WITH TAMMY...A COMPLICATED
UPPER ATMOSPHERE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TO MOVE
NORTH FROM THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
BEGINNING TONIGHT. IN ADDITION... A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK CREATING A VERY
FAVORABLE SITUATION FOR MORE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. TRAIN ECHO EFFECTS...MEANING THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
VERY HEAVY RAINS DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE SAME AREAS
OVER AND OVER...WILL BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...A GENERAL 5 TO
8 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLY
FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY.
* WAVES OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER
ESPECIALLY IN POORLY DRAINED URBAN AREAS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL
AS LOW LYING AREAS. RESIDENTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MAKE
PREPARATIONS NOW TO PROTECT PROPERTY FROM FLOODING.

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. PERSONS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD
REMAIN WEATHER ALERT AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
BEGIN OR A WARNING BE ISSUED. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED
LATER TODAY.

[Air Force Met]

The buoy in the NW Caribbean is showing pressures around 1005 mb. There has to be smoe sort of closed low with a pressure like that. Last hour it was 1004.7mb...which means the pressure could be down to near 1003 or 1004 in that blob. That is probably closed off.

Belize City is also reporting 1004 mb. Can't wait to see the vis images.

[TPACane04]

Looks like that flareup near Cancun could have been a little spoke of energy off of Stan that has rotated to the NE and now gained some juice upon hitting the Caribbean.

It will be interesting to see if this cluster gets balled up toward Florida with mean flow...would be a 1-2 punch with Tammy on one side and this glob coming up the other side.

Not sure if it has develoment potential, but any concentrated mass over that warm Caribbean water could do just about anything.

[drezee]

That looks to have FL written all over it...

[margaritabeach]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html\

notice the spin over north central yucatan

[cinlfla]

Is this Stan or is this part of Stans energy?

[CHRISTY]

wow! what is that blob coming out to the ucatan channel does it have a chance for development?? looks to be towards southern florida!

[AZRainman]

Stan is is giving birth to himself. Two storms from one, GFDL indicates a Cat 2 cane forming from the remnants of Stan in the EPAC.

[CHRISTY]

can someone post model links!question did stan turn around and come back!does this blob have a chance.

[skysummit]

That is one nice looking blob! I'm so happy to have high pressure over my head! This may be what the GFS has been seeing.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Defineatly a LLC over the Yukatan....WTF is going on here?

[CHRISTY]

were is this blob headed to? is there any models that pick up on this blob because to me this blob looks more intence then tammy does pressures are already low with this.

[CHRISTY]

it has a LLC i didnt know that!

[skysummit]

were is this blob headed to? is there any models that pick up on this blob because to me this blob looks more intence then tammy does pressures are already low with this.

Christy...you seem to have all the same model links as we do. You surely post them often. I believe you could answer your own question here.

[bvigal]

that circulation is really clear on the loop, moving NE and being sheared from SW

[jenshops]

This was not mentioned in the TWO this morning, does that mean that the NHC doesn't think this is anything?

[cjrciadt]

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html
See it clearly here.

[Weatherboy1]

I would guess based on the environmental setup that whatever this blob is, it's going to head NNE or NE, maybe slowly at first and then pick up speed as that big front comes down. I can't remember which model showed something like this (possibly more than one), but I do recall a "son of Stan" type low pressure area showing up in it. Could mean more nasty weather for FL even as Tammy pulls to the north.