NOAA ISSUES FINAL 2005-2006 U.S. WINTER OUTLOOK:

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Oct. 12, 2005 — NOAA announced the 2005-2006 U.S. Winter Outlook today for the months December, January and February. NOAA forecasters expect warmer-than-normal temperatures in most of the U.S. The precipitation outlook is less certain, showing equal chances of above, near or below normal precipitation for much of the country.



"Even though the average temperature over the three-month winter season is forecast to be above normal in much of the country, there still will be bouts of winter weather with cold temperatures and frozen precipitation," said retired Navy Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr., Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator.

NOAA does not expect La Niña and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to play a role in this winter's forecast. Without ENSO, forecasters look to other short-term climate factors, like the North Atlantic Oscillation, in determining the overall winter patterns. Under these conditions there tends to be more variability in winter weather patterns across the nation, especially in the Great Lakes region and the northeast U.S.

The Outlook
The 2005-2006 U.S. Winter Outlook calls for warmer-than-normal temperatures across much of the central and western United States, including Alaska and Hawaii. The Midwest, the Southern Californian coast and the East Coast have equal chances of warmer, cooler or near-normal temperatures this winter.

The precipitation outlook calls for wetter-than-normal conditions across most of Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and northeastern Texas. Drier-than-normal conditions are expected across the Southwest from Arizona to New Mexico.



As winter approaches, nearly 20 percent of the nation is in some level of drought compared to around 30 percent of the country this time last year as defined by the U.S. Drought Monitor. For the sixth year in a row, drought remains a concern for parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies. Wet or dry conditions during the winter typically have a significant impact on drought conditions. Winter-spring snow pack is particularly important in the West, as much of the annual water supply comes from the springtime snow melt. NOAA cautions it would take a number of significant winter snowstorms to end the drought in the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies.

What Could Drive This Winter's Weather?
Since early 2005 sea-surface temperatures in the central-equatorial Pacific Ocean have been near normal. Near normal sea-surface temperatures in the central-equatorial Pacific Ocean are expected to continue for the next three to six months. Therefore, it is unlikely that either the El Niño or La Niña phases of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle will be present during the upcoming winter. As a result, one key climate feature that could have a particularly large impact in U.S. winter weather, especially along the East Coast, is the North Atlantic Oscillation or NAO.

The North Atlantic Oscillation often changes its phase from week-to-week. During the positive phase, the jet stream shifts to the north of its usual position and the winter weather features relatively warm days over much of the contiguous U.S. In contrast, during the negative phase the jet stream shifts to the south of its usual position. The negative phase of the NAO features more Nor'easters and more frequent cold air outbreaks and snowstorms, especially along the East Coast. Currently, the phase of the NAO is difficult to anticipate more than one to two weeks in advance.

Recognizing the demand to have more precision with seasonal outlooks, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center has formed a Climate Test Bed. The Climate Test Bed is a collaborative scientific effort among the operational, academic and research communities. The mission of the Climate Test Bed is to accelerate the transfer of atmospheric and oceanic research and development into operational climate forecasts, products and applications. At present the Climate Test Bed is focused on maximizing the use of the NOAA Climate Forecast System model in combination with other climate forecast tools to improve U.S. seasonal precipitation and temperature outlooks.

NOAA will publish updates to the 2005-2006 U.S. Winter Outlook via the Web Oct. 20, and Nov. 17. Meteorological winter begins Dec. 1 while astronomical winter begins Dec. 21.

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CLIMATE FACTORS HELPING TO SHAPE WINTER 2005-2006

Oct. 12, 2005 — As winter 2005-2006 approaches, NOAA scientists say the leading climate patterns expected to impact winter weather are: the long-term climate trends, the North Atlantic Oscillation, or NAO, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO.

Long-Term Climate Trends
In the absence of a significant El Niño and La Niña event, estimates of long-term trends along with a variety of dynamic and statistical tools provide the foundation for the forecast. One tool that is used at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center is the average conditions during the last 10 years compared with the long-term average for 1971-2000. Average winter temperature departures from normal for the period 1971-2000 are considerably cooler than those for the most recent 10-year average over much of the nation.

North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
The NAO is a major source of intra-seasonal variability over the United States, North Atlantic and Europe during the winter. The NAO modulates the circulation pattern over the middle and high latitudes, thereby regulating the number and intensity of significant weather events affecting the U.S.

The positive phase features a northward shift in the jet stream relative to its normal position. Associated with this phase is an increase in the occurrence of relatively warm days over the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. The negative phase features a southward shift of the jet stream. It is associated with an increase in more frequent cold air outbreaks and Nor'easters along the East Coast.

Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)
The MJO phenomenon is another factor likely to contribute to increased variability during the winter. The MJO influences the pattern of tropical rainfall, and produces El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like features on time scales of approximately 30-60 days (intra-seasonal). The MJO is most active during ENSO-neutral and weak-ENSO winters, and can influence the occurrence of extreme weather events, such as multiple day rain events and flooding along the Pacific Northwest Coast.

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Since early 2005, water temperatures in the central-equatorial Pacific Ocean have been near normal (ENSO-neutral). These conditions are expected to continue during this winter. As a result, it is unlikely that El Niño or La Niña will be a factor influencing the winter weather patterns. ENSO-neutral years often feature increased variability and increased occurrence of weather extremes in both temperature and precipitation for many areas of the country.

Implications for the U.S. in Winter 2005-2006

El Niño and La Niña are not likely to be factors influencing the winter weather in the United States;
The winter weather patterns during ENSO-neutral conditions are often dominated by other leading patterns of climate variability, including the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO);
Currently, the occurrence of the NAO and its phase are difficult to anticipate more than one to two weeks in advance.

[aggiecutter]

Wonder how they came-up with those wetter and drier than normal 60% chance bullseyes.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Darn it yet another snowless winter. Mild with light rain for months on end. I pray the rest of the united states see a snowless winter like I do.

[krysof]

Darn it yet another snowless winter. Mild with light rain for months on end. I pray the rest of the united states see a snowless winter like I do.

don't trust that forecast, they were wrong last year

[O Town]

Snow? Whats that?

I hope we have a milder winter. With that I mean no more than a few nights getting below freezing. If not all my tropical plants and trees in my yard will die. The past 2 years have been great. In 2002 I lost alot of my plants even with covers on them.

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The Winter Outlook Update

Oct. 20, 2005 — In the first of a two-part update to the U.S. Winter Outlook, NOAA meteorologists predict this winter to be warmer than the 30 year norm, yet cooler than last year. NOAA's heating degree day forecast for December, January and February projects a 0.7 percent warmer winter than the 30 year normal, but 6.5 percent cooler than last year. Therefore, people can expect, on average, more cooler days this winter than last.

"With the absence of El Niño and La Niña this year's winter outlook presents a challenge to seasonal forecasters," said Jim Laver, director of the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. "Shorter term climate fluctuations that are best predicted week-by-week are expected to play the dominate role on the weather patterns this winter," he added.

The 2005-2006 U. S. winter outlook calls for warmer-than-average temperatures for much of the central and western United States, including Alaska and Hawaii. The Midwest, the Mississippi Valley, the Southern Californian coast and the East Coast have equal chances of above, near, or below normal temperatures.



The precipitation outlook calls for wetter-than-average conditions across most of Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, northeastern Texas, Hawaii and northwestern Alaska. The remainder of the country has equal chances of above, near or below normal precipitation.



An equal chance, either for temperature or precipitation, is predicted when there is no strong or consistent climate signal for either an above or below normal conditions during the season. The prediction for areas of "equal chances" means there is a 50 percent chance for either an above-normal or below-normal forecast.

NOAA will publish the last update to the 2005-2006 U.S. Winter Outlook via the Web on Nov. 17. Meteorological winter begins Dec. 1 while astronomical winter begins Dec. 21.

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NOAA ISSUES FINAL 2005-2006 U.S. WINTER OUTLOOK:
ENSO conditions unlikely to impact Winter

Nov. 17, 2005 — As meteorological winter approaches, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center issued the final update to the 2005-2006 U.S. Winter Outlook. For December through February, the outlook continues to call for this winter to be warmer than the 30-year average. As stated in CPC’s El Niño Southern Oscillation Diagnostic Discussion from November 10, ENSO-neutral or weak La Niña conditions are likely during the next six to nine months. However, ENSO conditions are expected to have little or no impact on the United States this coming winter.



The update calls for warmer-than-average temperatures across much of central and western United States, including Hawaii, the Great Plains and Midwest. The Northeast, East Coast, Gulf Coast states and Southern California coast are in equal chances.

The precipitation outlook calls for wetter-than-average conditions in Hawaii and drier-than-average conditions in sections of the Southeast, including Florida and parts of the Southeast and Gulf Coast; with equal chances elsewhere in the nation.



“Equal chances, for temperature or precipitation, means there are no strong or consistent climate signals for either above or below normal conditions during the season,” said Edward O’Lenic, lead outlook forecaster at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. “Therefore, the selected area has an equal chance of warmer than, cooler than or near normal,” he added. This outlook is based on the expected average for the entire winter season, December 2005 through February 2006.

“Already wintry weather has begun in many parts of the nation and the key to safety is for people to be prepared before winter storms strike,” said James D. Laver, director of the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. NOAA has a plethora of weather and safety information online to help keep you safe. Also, NOAA Weather Radio All-Hazards is a nationwide radio network broadcasting continuous weather information directly from the nearest National Weather Service forecast office. NOAA Weather Radio broadcasts NOAA Weather Service warnings, watches, forecasts and other emergency information 24 hours a day.

Meteorological winter begins December 1 while astronomical winter begins December 21.