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PostPosted: Mon Oct 24, 2005 1:56 am 
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Category 5
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Posts: 1583
Location: Mobile, AL
Uh oh...

190
SXXX50 KNHC 240654
AF305 2424A WILMA HDOB 60 KNHC
0643. 2438N 08203W 03045 5150 214 111 084 084 113 02939 0000000100
0644 2439N 08204W 03050 5159 213 114 082 082 115 02934 0000000100
0644. 2440N 08205W 03045 5170 216 123 078 078 128 02918 0000000100
0645 2441N 08207W 03046 5180 216 128 078 078 130 02909 0000000100
0645. 2442N 08208W 03051 5190 219 131 082 082 134 02904 0000000100
0646 2443N 08209W 03043 5204 222 132 090 090 135 02883 0000000100
0646. 2443N 08210W 03055 5211 221 114 096 096 119 02887 0000000100
0647 2444N 08211W 03043 5222 223 105 100 100 107 02865 0000000100
0647. 2445N 08213W 03044 5229 221 101 104 104 103 02859 0000000100
0648 2446N 08214W 03044 5235 219 098 118 118 100 02852 0000000100
0648. 2447N 08215W 03048 5245 214 086 130 130 092 02846 0000000000
0649 2448N 08217W 03046 5254 214 080 146 146 082 02835 0000000000
0649. 2449N 08218W 03046 5261 217 076 148 148 077 02828 0000000000
0650 2450N 08220W 03046 5267 217 072 154 154 073 02822 0000000000
0650. 2451N 08221W 03050 5273 216 069 154 154 070 02820 0000000000
0651 2452N 08223W 03046 5280 214 067 152 152 067 02809 0000000000
0651. 2453N 08224W 03048 5288 211 060 144 144 063 02804 0000000000
0652 2454N 08226W 03044 5293 209 054 150 150 056 02795 0000000000
0652. 2455N 08227W 03047 5298 210 049 146 146 049 02792 0000000000
0653 2456N 08229W 03047 5303 213 047 140 140 048 02787 0000000000


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Oct 24, 2005 1:57 am 
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Location: Antigua, W.I
:eek: :eek: :eek: *gasp*

140mph surface


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:00 am 
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CAT 4 for SURE


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:04 am 
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Where are the eyewall dropsondes? Aren't they trying to verify these measurements


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:05 am 
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Location: Mobile, AL
curtadams wrote:
Where are the eyewall dropsondes? Aren't they trying to verify these measurements


974
UZNT13 KNHC 240634
XXAA 74067 99246 70824 08142 99971 ///// ///// 00/// ///// /////
92/// ///// ///// 85148 20005 19623 70805 09000 21626 88999 77999
31313 09608 80609
51515 10191
61616 AF305 2424A WILMA OB 36
62626 EYEWALL 120 LST WND 928 AEV 20507 DLM WND 20622 872744 =
XXBB 74068 99246 70824 08142 00971 ///// 11872 208// 22871 20805
33850 20005 44735 13611 55708 12200 66697 07800
21212 00971 ///// 11872 19118 22865 19126 33857 19630 44850 19623
55697 21626
31313 09608 80609
51515 10191
61616 AF305 2424A WILMA OB 36
62626 EYEWALL 120 LST WND 928 AEV 20507 DLM WND 20622 872744 =


From 0634Z.

I don't know how to read this.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:09 am 
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Posts: 206
Location: Antigua, W.I
974
UZNT13 KNHC 240634
XXAA 74067 99246 70824 08142 99971 ///// ///// 00/// ///// /////
92/// ///// ///// 85148 20005 19623 70805 09000 21626 88999 77999
31313 09608 80609
51515 10191
61616 AF305 2424A WILMA OB 36
62626 EYEWALL 120 LST WND 928 AEV 20507 DLM WND 20622 872744 =
XXBB 74068 99246 70824 08142 00971 ///// 11872 208// 22871 20805
33850 20005 44735 13611 55708 12200 66697 07800
21212 00971 ///// 11872 19118 22865 19126 33857 19630 44850 19623
55697 21626
31313 09608 80609
51515 10191
61616 AF305 2424A WILMA OB 36
62626 EYEWALL 120 LST WND 928 AEV 20507 DLM WND 20622 872744 =


eyewall.... without srf winds


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:10 am 
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eyewall drops often fail.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:11 am 
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Category 5
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Posts: 1583
Location: Mobile, AL
203
SXXX50 KNHC 240704
AF305 2424A WILMA HDOB 61 KNHC
0653. 2457N 08230W 03047 5306 213 044 140 140 045 02784 0000000000
0654 2458N 08232W 03047 5309 215 042 140 140 043 02781 0000000000
0654. 2458N 08234W 03048 5311 214 037 138 138 040 02780 0000000000
0655 2459N 08235W 03045 5314 216 031 140 140 033 02775 0000000000
0655. 2500N 08237W 03048 5315 216 027 140 140 028 02776 0000000000
0656 2501N 08238W 03046 5317 213 026 136 136 026 02772 0000000000
0656. 2502N 08240W 03048 5318 206 025 138 138 026 02773 0000000000
0657 2503N 08242W 03045 5318 207 020 134 134 022 02770 0000000000
0657. 2504N 08243W 03048 5317 217 017 134 134 018 02774 0000000000
0658 2505N 08245W 03048 5318 218 015 138 138 016 02773 0000000000
0658. 2506N 08247W 03046 5318 213 011 144 142 012 02771 0000000000
0659 2507N 08248W 03047 5316 218 007 146 140 009 02774 0000000000
0659. 2508N 08250W 03046 5315 244 004 144 144 005 02774 0000000000
0700 2509N 08251W 03048 5312 325 004 152 132 005 02779 0000000000
0700. 2510N 08253W 03048 5309 354 003 160 128 003 02782 0000000000
0701 2511N 08254W 03045 5302 036 003 166 126 005 02786 0000000000
0701. 2513N 08253W 03051 5304 118 005 168 116 005 02790 0000000000
0702 2514N 08252W 03045 5305 125 010 170 112 012 02783 0000000000
0702. 2516N 08251W 03044 5306 123 013 172 108 014 02781 0000000000
0703 2517N 08249W 03050 5306 127 015 174 104 017 02787 0000000000


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:12 am 
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Location: Orange, California
Dang. Isn't that 123 knots at 850 mb?


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:14 am 
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Location: Macon, GA
looks to be a VDM soon...


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:16 am 
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Category 5
Category 5

Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2004 2:47 am
Posts: 1583
Location: Mobile, AL
421
URNT12 KNHC 240711
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/06:59:30Z
B. 25 deg 08 min N
082 deg 50 min W
C. 700 mb 2695 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 222 deg 135 kt
G. 124 deg 046 nm
H. 952 mb
I. 8 C/ 3056 m
J. 17 C/ 3047 m
K. 12 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C65
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF305 2424A WILMA OB 39
MAX FL WIND 135 KT SE QUAD 06:45:40 Z
SOME LIGHTNING VISIBLE IN NW EYEWALL

=======

Moved 6 minutes north and 22 minutes east... :?:


Last edited by mtm4319 on Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:18 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:17 am 
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Location: Portland,OR
Looks like that 135 knots was good...With a 2 millibar drop...


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:18 am 
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Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2004 1:31 pm
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Location: North Palm Beach, Florida
okay, Pasch now needs to get off his $@# and issue an intermediate advisory, the 135kts are confirmed and there is lightening in the eyewall and we all know what that means


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:21 am 
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Location: Macon, GA
this is a cat 4....and she is def...getting stronger


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:21 am 
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Posts: 9020
Location: Southern California
Wow, mixed signals, eye temp difference has increased and the eye has dried out, along with lightning in the NW Eyewall and flight winds nearing Cat 5, but pressure hasn't really dropped much and radar presentation is not very good (though that could be just that the convection is far away from the radar).


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:21 am 
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Location: Norman, OK
To his defense, 154mb is very high for a Cat 4 of Wilma's size. It certainly is partly caused by her fast motion, being 20mph now. So, for a slower moving cane, she'd prob be strong cat 3 (subtracting 10-15mph).


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:23 am 
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Category 5
Category 5

Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2004 2:47 am
Posts: 1583
Location: Mobile, AL
629
SXXX50 KNHC 240714
AF305 2424A WILMA HDOB 62 KNHC
0703. 2519N 08248W 03047 5303 120 017 174 104 019 02787 0000000000
0704 2520N 08247W 03048 5300 121 024 160 114 026 02791 0000000000
0704. 2521N 08246W 03045 5297 123 027 156 118 028 02792 0000000000
0705 2523N 08245W 03045 5294 122 027 154 126 028 02794 0000000000
0705. 2524N 08244W 03049 5289 117 027 152 146 027 02803 0000000000
0706 2525N 08243W 03043 5285 118 031 140 140 034 02801 0000000100
0706. 2527N 08242W 03052 5281 118 033 128 128 034 02814 0000000100
0707 2528N 08240W 03039 5278 124 036 146 146 044 02804 0000000000
0707. 2529N 08239W 03058 5272 130 052 122 122 058 02829 0000000000
0708 2531N 08238W 03045 5268 133 060 114 114 067 02820 0000000100
0708. 2532N 08237W 03049 5262 135 068 112 112 075 02830 0000000100
0709 2534N 08236W 03049 5254 132 080 102 102 082 02838 0000000100
0709. 2535N 08235W 03047 5244 128 088 098 098 089 02846 0000000100
0710 2536N 08234W 03042 5233 122 082 092 092 083 02853 0000000100
0710. 2537N 08233W 03043 5221 115 081 088 088 083 02866 0000000100
0711 2538N 08232W 03048 5214 117 080 086 086 081 02877 0000000100
0711. 2540N 08231W 03052 5204 120 081 086 086 081 02891 0000000100
0712 2541N 08230W 03048 5197 125 081 086 086 082 02894 0000000100
0712. 2542N 08229W 03044 5190 128 077 088 088 077 02897 0000000100
0713 2543N 08228W 03049 5182 130 079 090 090 082 02910 0000000000


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:23 am 
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Location: Macon, GA
i understand 952mb is a little bit high for cat 4...but, damn...we have the winds to support it....


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:23 am 
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What doe's pressure have to do with upgrading a cyclone....The answer is not one darn thing.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:24 am 
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Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:
What doe's pressure have to do with upgrading a cyclone....The answer is not one darn thing.


take it easy....relax


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