TD 24,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[cycloneye]

Ok folks you can talk all about TD24 here.

[quandary]

So there is a TD 24.

[Florida_TSR]

TD 24 is here. Officially.

[WindRunner]

Interesting public advisory . . . already talking about posting hurricane watches -> hurricane in 36hrs????? I guess we'll have to wait and see the advisory.

[HURAKAN]

I really don't like the trajectory. If a trough comes around day 5, Florida be careful!

[cjrciadt]

Interesting public advisory . . . already talking about posting hurricane watches -> hurricane in 36hrs????? I guess we'll have to wait and see the advisory.

The forecast says 100kt by 18/1800z they expect to get together quickly.

[Swimdude]

Has there EVER been a TD24... EVER?!

[SkeetoBite]

[jkt21787]

Interesting public advisory . . . already talking about posting hurricane watches -> hurricane in 36hrs????? I guess we'll have to wait and see the advisory.

The forecast says 100kt by 18/1800z they expect to get together quickly.

I only see them taking it to 85kts...that would be 100 *MPH*

[quandary]

Well... if we get Wilma, I would say that we have beaten 1933 in all regards since we have 3 more TDs than that year and I think more hurricanes and more majors and certainly more Cat 4/5s too.

[cjrciadt]

All over the place is an understatement.

[x-y-no]

12Z Euro tracks it across South Florida as a hurricane on day 7.

[cjrciadt]

Interesting public advisory . . . already talking about posting hurricane watches -> hurricane in 36hrs????? I guess we'll have to wait and see the advisory.

The forecast says 100kt by 18/1800z they expect to get together quickly.

I only see them taking it to 85kts...that would be 100 *MPH*

Correct
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.5N 82.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

[chadtm80]

Tropical Storm Historical Tracking Map

[Scorpion]

The Euro was spot on with Katrina. Should get interesting.

[DESTRUCTION5]

The Euro was spot on with Katrina. Should get interesting.

Not 7 days out it was not...

[P.K.]

I haven't seen if this was previously posted in the 98L thread. Note it was initalised at 30kts rather than 25kts as in the first advisory.

WHXX01 KWBC 152033
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL242005) ON 20051015 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051015 1800 051016 0600 051016 1800 051017 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.6N 78.6W 18.0N 79.6W 18.2N 80.5W 18.0N 81.3W
BAMM 17.6N 78.6W 18.0N 79.6W 18.2N 80.5W 17.7N 81.1W
A98E 17.6N 78.6W 17.6N 79.0W 17.6N 79.8W 17.3N 80.6W
LBAR 17.6N 78.6W 18.0N 79.2W 19.2N 79.4W 20.0N 79.4W
SHIP 30KTS 40KTS 50KTS 60KTS
DSHP 30KTS 40KTS 50KTS 60KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051017 1800 051018 1800 051019 1800 051020 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.5N 82.3W 16.4N 84.7W 15.5N 87.4W 15.2N 90.4W
BAMM 16.9N 81.8W 15.0N 83.8W 13.1N 86.8W 11.8N 90.3W
A98E 16.9N 81.6W 15.8N 83.6W 15.0N 85.8W 13.8N 88.2W
LBAR 21.3N 78.9W 24.6N 76.3W 29.1N 70.6W 32.4N 62.7W
SHIP 68KTS 81KTS 82KTS 75KTS
DSHP 68KTS 81KTS 82KTS 75KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.6N LONCUR = 78.6W DIRCUR = 260DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 17.8N LONM12 = 77.6W DIRM12 = 255DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 18.2N LONM24 = 76.6W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 220NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[SkeetoBite]

SST data current as of 10/13/2005 @ 5:30pm EST

[truballer#1]

[HURAKAN]

Let me ask something, in the next few days are we expecting a trough of low pressure to affect this system? In October most of the storm that affect Florida come from the NW Caribbean and one major factor are troughts.