The cone of doom, destruction and general mayhem

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
SkeetoBite
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 515
Age: 59
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2004 8:25 am
Contact:
Contact SkeetoBite

The cone of doom, destruction and general mayhem

#1 Postby SkeetoBite » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:07 am

A great many people are caught off guard because they watch the "line" in the official NHC forecasts. We have created the following as a public service to help folks understand the true meaning of the "Cone of uncertainty".

Image
0 likes   
Top
chadtm80

#2 Postby chadtm80 » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:09 am

Great Feature Skeetobite.. Thanks again!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9792
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

#3 Postby artist » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:10 am

what an excellent post skeetobite - your maps, this, etc. are really appreciated! Thanks for all your hard work!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148497
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#4 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:11 am

Bravo Skeet. :)
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9792
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

#5 Postby artist » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:12 am

just had an idea - could you also post this in the hurrcane prep forum? Think it would be good to have it around.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
johngaltfla
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2072
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 9:17 pm
Location: Sarasota County, FL
Contact:
Contact johngaltfla

#6 Postby johngaltfla » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:13 am

At least he didn't ask to use my tradmarked "CONE OF DEATH".... :D
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Recurve
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1640
Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2005 8:59 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

#7 Postby Recurve » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:22 am

Since it says "could be here," maybe show the center outside the cone, since at five days that is certainly possible. The graphic reinforces the idea that the center will always be exactly where they say it will be (somewhere in the cone), and especially at 5 days out, we know how wrong that can be.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Canelaw99
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2128
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 8:27 am
Location: Homestead, FL

#8 Postby Canelaw99 » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:23 am

:clap: Great job as always skeet!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9792
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

#9 Postby artist » Sun Oct 16, 2005 1:40 pm

think this is very important for all to see - let's try to keep it up towards the top - or maybe even sticky?

thanks skeeterbite.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ChaserUK
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 630
Joined: Thu Aug 28, 2003 4:10 pm
Location: Jersey, Channel Islands
Contact:
Contact ChaserUK

#10 Postby ChaserUK » Sun Oct 16, 2005 2:32 pm

very good skeeterbite!

I wonder if I will ever see a graphic like that for Atlantic storms or Microcanes like Vince in future?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cjrciadt
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1616
Joined: Mon Aug 22, 2005 1:11 pm
Location: Kissimmee, FL

#11 Postby cjrciadt » Sun Oct 16, 2005 2:56 pm

Thank you!!!!!!!!! this should be stapled to the head of all the cable mets that only talk about the center of the track.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Tampa Bay Hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5598
Age: 37
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

#12 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sun Oct 16, 2005 3:01 pm

AWESOME job!!!!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
NCHurricane
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 400
Age: 54
Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2005 2:50 pm
Location: Winterville, North Carolina, USA
Contact:
Contact NCHurricane

#13 Postby NCHurricane » Sun Oct 16, 2005 4:41 pm

Great graphic, Skeetobite!

Maybe, just maybe, the media will start looking more at the total storm than just the eye. Graphics like this will help for sure.

Keep up the awesome work. 8-)

Chuck
http://www.nchurricane.com
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9792
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

#14 Postby artist » Sun Oct 16, 2005 4:55 pm

Skeetobite - ever thought of contacting your local mets to see if they would be interested in using your 'map'?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 23080
Age: 68
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

#15 Postby wxman57 » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:51 pm

And I believe that the cone represents a 60% probability that the storm will track within that area. So there is a 40% chance it'll track outside the cone. And, remember, the cone is ONLY based upon the 10-year average error, it is not meant to represent any confidence in the current track.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9792
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

#16 Postby artist » Sun Oct 16, 2005 9:20 pm

bump
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
beachbum_al
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2163
Age: 55
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2005 9:23 pm
Location: South Alabama Coast
Contact:
Contact beachbum_al

#17 Postby beachbum_al » Sun Oct 16, 2005 9:36 pm

bumping because everyone must see and read
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Swimdude
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2270
Joined: Mon Jul 26, 2004 11:57 am
Location: Houston, TX

#18 Postby Swimdude » Sun Oct 16, 2005 9:46 pm

Very impressive illustration.
0 likes   
Top
tornadochaser86
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 197
Joined: Fri Sep 23, 2005 11:19 am
Location: University of South Alabama
Contact:
Contact tornadochaser86

#19 Postby tornadochaser86 » Mon Oct 17, 2005 12:33 am

love the illustration
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
StrongWind
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 241
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:02 pm
Location: Deerfield Beach, FL

#20 Postby StrongWind » Mon Oct 17, 2005 1:21 am

Concrete examples are always good too. Out of curiosity: what's the largest 5-day landfall error that there's been?
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Ivanhater and 484 guests