For all the model watchers

[caneman]

When you run the loop on NHC vsible and check the forecast points the system appears to be South of the forecast points. Models will surely change again. I would think by late Wednesday or early Thursday we'll have a better idea.

[Brent]

Yeah... I'm not buying into this southward shift yet, just like I didn't buy into the shift into the Yucatan a few days ago(which ended up changing).

[NEXRAD]

I agree about the south shifts. Watch the models tonight and on Wednesday, I expect some returned pull to the north with the models. I've discussed the reasoning behind a more north track than many models indicate in my discussion (found in the tropics analysis section).

- Jay
KSC FL

[skysummit]

I also agree. I believe this southern shift is only temporary. Looking at the latest visible (which I have is 1715z), it already looks south of the models. If this west to wnw motion continues, and the models still put Wilma heading south of Florida...we better get ready for some VERY COLD weather!

[floridahurricaneguy]

Since the models have her north of where she actually she is, why does that mean she would possibly end up being north of the models? So you saying Tampa shouldnt forget about this yet?

Matt

[inotherwords]

Since the models have her north of where she actually she is, why does that mean she would possibly end up being north of the models? So you saying Tampa shouldnt forget about this yet?

Matt

Jay (NEXRAD) has a nice detailed forecast in the pro met board where he goes into the reasoning for this. For once I hope he's wrong, though, because it would mean a near direct hit for me!

I look forward to seeing what the models show over the next day or two. I'm getting nervous about when this storm will start turning. That will be key. And unfortunately it may be a little late to evacuate easily at that point. I think we're going to see a lot of panic. I'm trying to convince my elderly mom to take a 4 day vacation up in St. Augustine or Savannah or somewhere, leaving Thursday night, just so we can get out of the way.

[MetroMike]

When I ran the loop and the overlay forecast points it apperared to me to be South and West of the forcast points.

[StormFury]

Before reading any other words in this post look at the following link and PAY ATTENTION to where the models originate and how the Xtrap direction shadows the other models. http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_24.gif

This indicates that the models have correctly initialized Wilma and that she is moving in their anticipated direction.

[caneman]

Before reading any other words in this post look at the following link and PAY ATTENTION to where the models originate and how the Xtrap direction shadows the other models. http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_24.gif

This indicates that the models have correctly initialized Wilma and that she is moving in their anticipated direction.

Ummmm,

The storm is in fact not following the extrapolated line. Take a look at a Sat loop with trop forecast points and you will see if is South of the NHC forecast points. Already left of several of the models. Point is things change.

[StormFury]

"Ummmm," aha! you're not sure about what you are saying.

you could be right, but the Xtrap is not a computer model...it is an acutal indication of the movement based on computer data.

[Weatherfreak14]

I agree about the south shifts. Watch the models tonight and on Wednesday, I expect some returned pull to the north with the models. I've discussed the reasoning behind a more north track than many models indicate in my discussion (found in the tropics analysis section).

- Jay
KSC FL

I agree also, that is why also I expect a track all litle north of what it is now and yesterday.

[tronbunny]

"Ummmm," aha! you're not sure about what you are saying.

you could be right, but the Xtrap is not a computer model...it is an acutal indication of the movement based on computer data.

I understand it to be a direct, "if it keeps moving exactly the way it has (no changes) since the last plot... this is where it will go"

it's a path "extrapolated" from the last 2 position points.
So the Xtrap line could be all over the place whenever a storm "wobbles".