Is an eyewall replacement expected?

dolphinslady · #1 Postby **dolphinslady** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:05 am

If so, when does it usually occur? If it's a strong hurricane undergoing the changes, does it weaken the system when it takes place?

Thanks,
Cheryl

#2 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:08 am

At 11 PM the NHC said in the discussion that they were expecting an EWRC in the next 24-48 hours, that would weaken the storm before contracting again. That was why they just had it as a Cat. 4 in the forecast, but Wilma didn't want to wait that long!

f5 · #3 Postby f5 » Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:31 am

Wilma has to go through a eyewall replacement cycle she no annular like Katrina was so she has to she has no choice

#4 Postby **Aslkahuna** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 4:14 am

The first ERC is likely to occur sooner than 24-48 hours given the rapid rate of intensification. Wilma can not maitain this intensity very long.

Steve

Dr. Jonah Rainwater · #5 Postby **Dr. Jonah Rainwater** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 4:27 am

I think the more important question is about what happens after the ERC. Right now the entire area of hurricane-force winds only extends 15 miles outwards from the center - it would fit inside of Katrina's eye. After the ERC, the windfield will expand dramatically, and the pressure will probably remain in the low 900s, if I were to make an unofficial guess. Whether or not she restrengthens is anybody's guess. I think some of it may end up hinging on dry air entrainment, just like in Katrina and Rita.

f5 · #6 Postby f5 » Wed Oct 19, 2005 4:31 am

Katrina/Rita didn't have many ERC cycles beacuse they had a large eye

Is an eyewall replacement expected?

Is an eyewall replacement expected?

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