How Can Wilma make a....

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chris_fit
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How Can Wilma make a....

#1 Postby chris_fit » Wed Oct 19, 2005 8:17 am

like 50 degree turn right passed the Yucatan?

Since Wilma is a sub 900mb Hurricane, would it allow it to "plow" through the trough a little more? Perhaps create it's own environment? I just think that the NHC is being a little cocky with their "line" forecast. I Believe this is a prime example of why that dotted line down the center of that cone should be removed.
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#2 Postby Brent » Wed Oct 19, 2005 8:20 am

She's not gonna be Sub-900 when she makes the turn though. She will... the trough is simply too strong for her to plow through it and then live to tell about it.
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#3 Postby ericinmia » Wed Oct 19, 2005 8:30 am

Hurricanes don't drive....

they roll down the path of least resistance... hence why they stall when there is no path.

She will go any which way is easiest.
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#4 Postby chris_fit » Wed Oct 19, 2005 9:09 am

If this trough is going to be "shaped" like they say it is....

Image

See how the trough has more of a vertical component to it? Wouldn't that draw the hurricane to the north more? If the trough was more "flat" (west to east oriented) then I would agree with the current forecast more, of a sharp turn to the ENE, instead of what I think may catch some people off guard and head more NE or NNE.

Comments?
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#5 Postby Brent » Wed Oct 19, 2005 9:12 am

See the flow??

Image

This is a Florida Peninsula storm.
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#6 Postby chris_fit » Wed Oct 19, 2005 9:14 am

Brent wrote:This is a Florida Peninsula storm.


No doubt about that.
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#7 Postby LanceW » Wed Oct 19, 2005 9:14 am

Don't think he is questioning a Florida storm, just looks like it may go a little further north than forcast. I have the same question.

Brent wrote:See the flow??

This is a Florida Peninsula storm.
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