All bets are off !

[jax]

The NHC isn't even sure Wilma will get into the Gulf any more...
Is it going into the Yucatan? Is it going through the channel?
If it hits the Yucatan... will it stall there and weeken?

They admit they have very little confidence in any 5 day
solution.

[Rainband]

Looks better for the US if this verifies!!!!

[skysummit]

Yup...this storm definately has a mind of her own. Do what you want Wilma....but at least give us a little notice first

[tronbunny]

You said it!

I'm happy that the storm isn't following the paths of the last 24-48 hours, just because I really don't want it!

But I hate being kept in such suspense.
I hate being reminded that we're only human, and Nature doesn't have to keep us in the information loop.

[Wacahootaman]

Well, I just hope it moves soon one way or the other.

The big resort cities along the Yucatan gotta be biting their nails at this development!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Yup. All bets are certainly off.

[jax]

here are a few key clips from the NHC discussion

agreement among the track guidance models...which had been very good
over the past couple of days...has completely collapsed today.

GFDL showing an
extreme change...with its 5-day position shifting a mere 1650 nmi
from its previous position in Maine to the western tip of Cuba.

I have slowed the
official forecast just a little bit at this time...but if Wilma
continues to move more to the left than expected...substantial
changes to the official forecast may have to be made down the line.
Needless to say...confidence in the forecast track...especially the
timing...has decreased considerably.


WOW... 1,650 mile change for a 5 day solition....

[Trader Ron]

Wilma COULD go anywhere at this point. I don't ever remember seeing

wording such as.."track guidance models has compelely collapsed" per the 5:00 PM discussion.

[floridahurricaneguy]

Yup. All bets are certainly off.

You are kidding right? I think its very little premature to say that.

Matt

[Wacahootaman]

Based on the visible floater, to my untrained eye, Wilma seemed to stall for 4 hours today but now seems to be moving more north now.

We shall see.

[Downdraft]

People, people, people. Let's remember what time of the year it is and climitology for the season. Don't jump all over a bad run by the GFDL. It's a little premature to say all bet's are off and you don't see the NHC forecast saying that either.

[tronbunny]

Downdraft...
I know when I seconded this phrase, I meant confidence for the next few hours...
You know that good scientists don't count the chickens before they're hatched and don't stop counting until all shells are checked..

I know it's a wacky analogy, but to add to the silliness:
The fat lady hasn't sung

[Ixolib]

Can't remember which forecaster said it, or for which advisory on which storm (but it was a recent one), but the quote went something like this:

"Many of the 2005 tropical systems are generally ignoring climatology" (or a close facsimile)

Seems to me that quote is still standing strong today...

[jax]

People, people, people. Let's remember what time of the year it is and climitology for the season. Don't jump all over a bad run by the GFDL. It's a little premature to say all bet's are off and you don't see the NHC forecast saying that either.

feel free to read between the lines... this is what NHC said

agreement among the track guidance models...which had been very good
over the past couple of days...has completely collapsed today.

GFDL showing an
extreme change...with its 5-day position shifting a mere 1650 nmi
from its previous position in Maine to the western tip of Cuba.

I have slowed the
official forecast just a little bit at this time...but if Wilma
continues to move more to the left than expected...substantial
changes to the official forecast may have to be made down the line.
Needless to say...confidence in the forecast track...especially the
timing...has decreased considerably

[WeatherEmperor]

Jax, didnt you see the new 18Z GFDL? Its back on track towards south florida.

<RICKY>

[cjrciadt]

The GFDL has recovered from its brief "breakdown", tightly clusted in S. FL.

[Jim Cantore]

I think if it hits the yucatan it goes in as a 5

its gotta hit somewhere but where is the issue

[beachbum_al]

Wilma has a mind of her own.
No one knows what she is thinking.
One minute she appears to be moving
And the next she is teasing.

Will where Wilma go?
Will she make that sharp East turn, Direct N, or WNW?
No one knows but Wilma herself
Or does she know?