GFS 12z: No dropsondes were initiated in 12z-run

[Solaris]

NOUS42 KWNO 191513
ADMNFD
SPECIAL NCEP DISCUSSION
CENTRAL OPERATIONS/NCEP/NWS/WASHINGTON DC
1513 UTC WED OCT 19 2005

THE 12Z NAM IS COMPLETE. THE GFS HAS STARTED WITH 30
CANADIAN...12 MEXICAN AND 8 CARIBBEAN STATIONS IN FOR THE
DUMP.

12Z GFS RAOB RECAP...
PASY/70414 - 10145...UNFAVORABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
NKX/72293 - LATE...NOT IN FOR THE NAM/GFS.

THERE WERE NO DROPSONDE OBS IN SUPPORT OF WILMA FOR THE 12Z
NAM/GFS.

CARR/SDM/NCO/NCEP

So, no surprise there's a cracky run

[Rainband]

It was the gfdl that had a "cracky" run not the gfs.

[Scorpion]

The GFS had a bad run stalling it in the Yucatan and the BAMS run off of it as well as the GFDL.

[Solaris]

GFDL is initiated on GFS data

[DESTRUCTION5]

It was the gfdl that had a "cracky" run not the gfs.

Right off the GFS Grid...If this is the Case it was a huge Human Error

[Rainband]

Why does everyone down the gfs then. The Gfdl is one of the best models and it runs off the gfs grid. thats interesting

[krysof]

Why does everyone down the gfs then. The Gfdl is one of the best models and it runs off the gfs grid. thats interesting

I think the gfdl is having a model breakdown for now, but it should get back into place by tomorrow.

[vacanechaser]

Why does everyone down the gfs then. The Gfdl is one of the best models and it runs off the gfs grid. thats interesting

Because it has been designed and tweaked for hurricanes only... It only uses a background bit of data if I am correct....

But it is funny, the GFDL has been the best model this year, and yet the GFS has been off its rocker in some cases... The 2 were worlds apart... Not sure whyGFS is horrible unless you know the mistakes and problems of the model....


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Brent]

That's interesting... and I'm so confused.

[StormFury]

Could I guys tell me what you are all talking about in ENGLISH? From what I am hearing, the GFS data could have been screwed up (human error), resulting in screwed up GFDL, BAMM, and BAMD models. I think there could have been human error because of what you guys said about there being no dropsonde (however it's spelled).

As a result, I bet that the new GFS, GFDL, BAMM, and BAMD model runs will once again point to Florida in the next run, assuming that there are dropsondes and no human or computer screw ups.

Also, I've seen Wilma drifting to the NW in the last few frames...maybe she is starting to make that northward move. Not convinced? Place your finger at the initial position of the eye...then see where the eye ends up!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Scorpion]

Could I guys tell me what you are all talking about in ENGLISH? From what I am hearing, the GFS data could have been screwed up (human error), resulting in screwed up GFDL, BAMM, and BAMD models. I think there could have been human error because of what you guys said about there being no dropsonde (however it's spelled).

As a result, I bet that the new GFS, GFDL, BAMM, and BAMD model runs will once again point to Florida in the next run, assuming that there are dropsondes and no human or computer screw ups.

Also, I've seen Wilma drifting to the NW in the last few frames...maybe she is starting to make that northward move. Not convinced? Place your finger at the initial position of the eye...then see where the eye ends up!

NW is probably a wobble. It will proceed west like it usually does with its little loops.

[StormFury]

If you look at the visible satellite loop and analyze the general movement of the entire cloud mass, a Northwesterly movement is taking place. Besides, according to the NHC discussion, a NW movement is supposed to occur within 24 hours (even though it is low confidence).

Regardless, this is October and I forsee a Florida landfall. I think this trough is strong enough since it will be producing freezing weather in the North and possibly severe weather in the plains and Southeast.

Besides, these global and tropical models have the tendency to underestimate the power of troughs and ridges. That is exactly what happened with Charley...the GFDL pointed to Tampa because it underestimated the strength of the trough.

Still not convinced? Well, just consider what the GFDL is pointing at...How unlikely it would be for a hurricane to stall on the Yucatan Peninsula, then move south, and then move back east...that is almost like backtracking. As a result, I would only say there are two possibilities for Wilma-1) Slam the Florida peninsula, 2)Or miss the peninsula and only affect Cuba and the Bahamas, similar to Michelle

Last thing I'd like to say...even Don Sutherland is not buying into this major shift of the GFDL. Look at his post, he says, "The 10/19 12z European Model does not deviate much from earlier runs of that model. Nonetheless, so far, the GFDL has performed quite well with regard to Wilma's track, so even as I'm not yet inclined to agree with the changes, I can't dismiss them out-of-hand either. For now, I’ll retain continuity with the earlier ideas while noting that the track after Florida still is subject to the possibility of large changes." I saw a meteorologist post the most reliable models (GFS, GFDL, Navy, European) and only the GFDL showed Wilma missing Florida. Even the GFS, which also shows Wilma stalling, showed her eventually targetting the upper Keys.

So it should be said...the GFDL is not on track because it is high on crack!

[T'Bonz]

Could I guys tell me what you are all talking about in ENGLISH? From what I am hearing, the GFS data could have been screwed up (human error), resulting in screwed up GFDL, BAMM, and BAMD models. I think there could have been human error because of what you guys said about there being no dropsonde (however it's spelled).

As a result, I bet that the new GFS, GFDL, BAMM, and BAMD model runs will once again point to Florida in the next run, assuming that there are dropsondes and no human or computer screw ups.

I concur. Please, for the dummies like me, can you simplify the explanation?

From what I'm getting, the model run was flawed? And since it was flawed, the GFDL which was based on the GFS would then be flawed?

If this is the case, why did the NHC not know this?

Thanks for any clarification. I appreciate it.

[linkerweather]

Could I guys tell me what you are all talking about in ENGLISH? From what I am hearing, the GFS data could have been screwed up (human error), resulting in screwed up GFDL, BAMM, and BAMD models. I think there could have been human error because of what you guys said about there being no dropsonde (however it's spelled).

As a result, I bet that the new GFS, GFDL, BAMM, and BAMD model runs will once again point to Florida in the next run, assuming that there are dropsondes and no human or computer screw ups.

Also, I've seen Wilma drifting to the NW in the last few frames...maybe she is starting to make that northward move. Not convinced? Place your finger at the initial position of the eye...then see where the eye ends up!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

You will have to wait until the 00z runs of the GFS and ultimately the GFDL which will come out around 1:50 am EDT. The 18z runs are an extension of the 12z runs (with some added data) but based off the 12z data. That is often why you don't find any monumental info coming out of 06z or 18z model runs

[Zadok]

If this is the case, why did the NHC not know this?

Because it is a conspiracy theory. :D

[melhow]

Could I guys tell me what you are all talking about in ENGLISH? From what I am hearing, the GFS data could have been screwed up (human error), resulting in screwed up GFDL, BAMM, and BAMD models. I think there could have been human error because of what you guys said about there being no dropsonde (however it's spelled).

As a result, I bet that the new GFS, GFDL, BAMM, and BAMD model runs will once again point to Florida in the next run, assuming that there are dropsondes and no human or computer screw ups.

Also, I've seen Wilma drifting to the NW in the last few frames...maybe she is starting to make that northward move. Not convinced? Place your finger at the initial position of the eye...then see where the eye ends up!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

You will have to wait until the 00z runs of the GFS and ultimately the GFDL which will come out around 1:50 am EDT. The 18z runs are an extension of the 12z runs (with some added data) but based off the 12z data. That is often why you don't find any monumental info coming out of 06z or 18z model runs

Hey Josh,

Model question - do you think that the last GFDL was a lousy run based off of skewed data, or do you think that it could "hold water", so to speak?

[johngaltfla]

That's interesting... and I'm so confused.

And now I'm totally petrified. This means that today's runs since 12Z are basically garbage, IMHO. I guess I'll start paying attention I guess when they start getting data from the jet and using the dropsonodes tommorrow.

Hell that will be 0000Z right gang?????

[T'Bonz]

If this is the case, why did the NHC not know this?

Because it is a conspiracy theory.

Sorry. I may be ignorant of some weather stuff, but I'm a logical creature. If we've heard of a flawed run, I can't see why they wouldn't have heard of it.


P.S. The run that influenced the 5 PM advisory and Max Mayfield's conference, which run? 12Z, 6Z?

Dratted confusing times.

[Zadok]

If we've heard of a flawed run, I can't see why they wouldn't have heard of it.

Exactly! That tells me that there is no "corrupt" data. It's all a conspiracy theory made up on here. :D

[linkerweather]

Could I guys tell me what you are all talking about in ENGLISH? From what I am hearing, the GFS data could have been screwed up (human error), resulting in screwed up GFDL, BAMM, and BAMD models. I think there could have been human error because of what you guys said about there being no dropsonde (however it's spelled).

As a result, I bet that the new GFS, GFDL, BAMM, and BAMD model runs will once again point to Florida in the next run, assuming that there are dropsondes and no human or computer screw ups.

Also, I've seen Wilma drifting to the NW in the last few frames...maybe she is starting to make that northward move. Not convinced? Place your finger at the initial position of the eye...then see where the eye ends up!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

You will have to wait until the 00z runs of the GFS and ultimately the GFDL which will come out around 1:50 am EDT. The 18z runs are an extension of the 12z runs (with some added data) but based off the 12z data. That is often why you don't find any monumental info coming out of 06z or 18z model runs

Hey Josh,

Model question - do you think that the last GFDL was a lousy run based off of skewed data, or do you think that it could "hold water", so to speak?

Thats impossible to say for sure. I mean the GFDL uses the GFS grid so if the GFS was Bad, which it may even be, just some data was alledgedly left out, then the gfdl would be bad also. We really have to wait until the 00z run unfortunately IMO