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Posted this on ST at 1030pm EDT but like an idiot, forgot to post it here.
Two main points:
-Wilma is undergoing an ERC at this time, and should not be through with it for at least another 15-18hr.
-Wilma appears track appears to warrant a short-term shift to the left.
After the replacement cycle is complete, Wilma will have another rather brief window of opportunity to re-attain Category 5 status. Unfortunately, this should be occurring as it nears the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula -- specifically near the tourist hotspots of Cancun and Cozumel. As of now, I believe it will be a Category 4 at landfall, and a strong one at that.
Beyond that, Wilma should be able to resist the influence of the trough longer than previously anticipated. This brings up the interesting possibility that Wilma will be left behind altogether, which the GFS hints at. I don't believe anything extreme such as this should occur, but that the longer it takes for the system to make the turn north, the greater the threat to the Yucatan becomes. This short-term deviation to the left of track has significant implications for the landfall in FL. As of now, I have a weakening borderlinde Category 2/Category 3 Wilma making landfall early Sunday near Naples. This doesn't represent that significant of a northward shift from my previous two Wilma-Casts, but nonetheless I think the eyewall should remain south of the TBW metro area.
There is a possibilty of a 3rd landfall in New England but I'm hesitant to speculate until Wilma is at least into the GoM - at the earliest. Too much uncertainty.
Wilma-Cast #2
Wilma-Cast #1
