Evidence of Ridge Starting to Weaken

[MWatkins]

Here’s a pretty good indicator that the ridge is starting to give way.

Take a look at the key west sounding from 00Z (8PM) last night…and notice that the mandatory 500MB height is 588DM. However…also notice the 500MB flow there…easterly (numbers on the left…isotachs on the right):

http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/ske ... EYW-1.html

24 Hours ago…it was out of the NE at the same height:

http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/ske ... EYW-2.html

Now…however…even though the pressure height is still 588DM…notice the flow is now out of the south/southwest…indicating perhaps that Key West is on the western side of the ridge:

http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/skew/skew_KEYW.html

Soundings from the central Gulf have also shown a 10DM reduction at 500MB…so it looks like the ridge is eroding.

Going to be very interesting to see what happens when the 12Z guidance rolls out in the next hour or so.

MW

[Bellarose]

If you don't mind, could you translate that for me?

Thanks!

Bella

[Raebie]

What does this means in terms of Wilma's path?

[DESTRUCTION5]

What does this means in terms of Wilma's path?

Means the NHC wins again..

[Raebie]

So she'll clip the Yucatan and potentially not stall for as long as some say?

You have to be specific with some of us.

[CronkPSU]

What does this means in terms of Wilma's path?

Means the NHC wins again..

LOL, very true, never bet against the house

[x-y-no]

Going to be very interesting to see what happens when the 12Z guidance rolls out in the next hour or so.

MW

Also, the 10AM CDT discussion mentions that the synoptic flight data is in the 12Z runs, which should help.

[x-y-no]

I'm trying hard to avoid the wobble-watching trap, but I think I see hints of a northward turn in that movement has slowed over the past few hours, and the storm envelope is elongating N/S.

EDIT: The elongation may be illusion caused by land effects over the Yucatan.

[skysummit]

I'm trying hard to avoid the wobble-watching trap, but I think I see hints of a northward turn in that movement has slowed over the past few hours, and the storm envelope is elongating N/S.

EDIT: The elongation may be illusion caused by land effects over the Yucatan.

LOL...same here. I'm afraid if I mention something, it'll head back 270.

[Raebie]

What does this means in terms of Wilma's path?

I don't know either Raebie, but I'm sure Mark will be back any moment to explain it to you.

Thanks for that, Raebie. I hear everyone talking but all I hear is blahblahblah.

LOL! I know what you mean! They aren't ignoring you, they're very busy with the hurricane. It's serious business you know...

[x-y-no]

What does this means in terms of Wilma's path?

I don't know either Raebie, but I'm sure Mark will be back any moment to explain it to you.

Thanks for that, Raebie. I hear everyone talking but all I hear is blahblahblah.

LOL! I know what you mean! They aren't ignoring you, they're very busy with the hurricane. It's serious business you know...

Are we having fun yet?

The bottom line is that these are the changes the NHC forcast track was based on, so the fact they appear to be happening increases confidence in the NHC track.

[Raebie]

I'm fluctating between hilarity and boredom. Thanks!

[Weatherboy1]

and the storm envelope is elongating N/S.

I agree -- If you look at the cloud pattern (both the high-level outflow and the more mid/low level banding), you can see that Wilma appears to be flattening out on her W and NW side. Coupled with WV imagery from the Gulf and the comments on the ridge from MW and the NHC, I think it's pretty obvious that the start of the turn is coming very soon. The all-important question for FL then becomes -- will the turn be sharp enough to keep Wilma offshore of the Yucatan or will she move inland? This could make the difference between an 80-90 mph storm at landfall in SW FL and a 120 mph one. I tend to think we're going to see Wilma stay offshore, and therfore, intensity will be at the higher end of the range. But since we're only talking about a difference of tens of miles, there literally is no way to tell, even with the models. We'll just have to wait and see, in my opinion.

[MWatkins]

Yes…Jan has done a good job explaining this…basically…weather evidence is coming in which suggests the currents driving Wilma are breaking down. This should serve to lift the hurricane to the NW and or possibly north over the next 2 days or so…which is right in line with the NHC forecast track.

Sorry for not taking the time to cover this more clearly.

MW

[Raebie]

I'm just playin around Mark. I know you're busy...thanks for the post.

[Amanzi]

I'm just playin around Mark. I know you're busy...thanks for the post.

His name is Mike.. Mike Watkins

[DESTRUCTION5]

I'm just playin around Mark. I know you're busy...thanks for the post.

His name is Mike.. Mike Watkins

LMAO..Thanks Amanzi...Wrong guy to get a name wrong....MW is the MAster...

[Agua]

I'm just playin around Mark. I know you're busy...thanks for the post.

His name is Mike.. Mike Watkins

Depends on who he's talking to. He's also been known as "Ron Mexico" at times.

[n o o d l z]

At this point, I don't think there's any way that Wilma is going to turn in time to miss the Yucatan....its a moot point right now, even if it made a 90 degree turn they'd be getting pretty close to the outer eye wall.

[dixiebreeze]

The outer bands are definitely showing a northerly trend. Just look at a loop and watch Key West and S. Fla. increasingly come under the bands.