12Z GFS/NOGAPS in General Agreement...

[MWatkins]

Ok…

Looks like the dropwindsonde mission has brought the GFS and NOGAPS models into closer agreement. Based on the latest forecast tracks from these models…and assuming the UKMET and GFDL models follow suit (and I believe they will) we are going to have to change the track forecast thinking and delay the FL landfall…and perhaps lower the intensity…of Wilma.

These models are now agreeing that Wilma will not get picked up by the leading edge of the upper system currently in the Midwest…and that there will be enough ridging to north and east of Wilma to block it’s forward progress in any direction once it reaches the Yucatan in 24-36 hours. NOGAPS and GFS do disagree on the details a little…but the mechanics are the same. We are likely to get a stall near the Yucatan and this could last for 2 days or so.

By Sunday…pressure heights will fall as the mid/upper system to the north passes…and Wilma will likely move toward SW Florida behind this system as it exits…and will then begin to move toward the FL coast very close to the previous NHC forecast situation.

This should have 2 impacts…

1. This is going to delay a landfall to sometime during the afternoon on Monday.

2. This may reduce the intensity by a category at FL landfall.

The details around the stall…especially where it occurs relative to the Yucatan (well inland…near the coast…over water) are huge variables and cannot be resolved right now…and these details will make a big impact on how strong the hurricane is when it makes it’s move toward the FL coast.

More later…

MW

[Canelaw99]

Thanks for the discussion Mike

[DESTRUCTION5]

Well Thanks for throwing in the Wrench MW...

[caneman]

Ok…

Looks like the dropwindsonde mission has brought the GFS and NOGAPS models into closer agreement. Based on the latest forecast tracks from these models…and assuming the UKMET and GFDL models follow suit (and I believe they will) we are going to have to change the track forecast thinking and delay the FL landfall…and perhaps lower the intensity…of Wilma.

These models are now agreeing that Wilma will not get picked up by the leading edge of the upper system currently in the Midwest…and that there will be enough ridging to north and east of Wilma to block it’s forward progress in any direction once it reaches the Yucatan in 24-36 hours. NOGAPS and GFS do disagree on the details a little…but the mechanics are the same. We are likely to get a stall near the Yucatan and this could last for 2 days or so.

By Sunday…pressure heights will fall as the mid/upper system to the north passes…and Wilma will likely move toward SW Florida behind this system as it exits…and will then begin to move toward the FL coast very close to the previous NHC forecast situation.

This should have 2 impacts…

1. This is going to delay a landfall to sometime during the afternoon on Monday.

2. This may reduce the intensity by a category at FL landfall.

The details around the stall…especially where it occurs relative to the Yucatan (well inland…near the coast…over water) are huge variables and cannot be resolved right now…and these details will make a big impact on how strong the hurricane is when it makes it’s move toward the FL coast.

More later…

MW

Landfall Ft. Myers, Naples or out to sea?