On the YP tip and ready......

[dixiebreeze]

for a run to Florida by tomorrow night, according to the 24 hr. projection by TAFB:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

[TampaFl]

[cjrciadt]

What!!!!! and TD 25

[Brent]

Same thing the NHC is predicting...

[dixiebreeze]

Same thing the NHC is predicting...

Pretty much. Question is, does it take the water route around the tip or barrel through.

[soonertwister]

Interesting post, dixie.

I did a look at how quickly landfall could occur in various locations of Florida based upon average straight-line motion in miles per hour from Wilma's location at roughly 8PM EDT tonight, using even speeds from 6 to 18 miles per hour.

The results were illuminating. In the chart below, the top row of numbers is average storm speed from current position to listed city, the following rows show the cities and the approximate arrival times of the core of Wilma.

People should not forget that travel conditions can deteriorate rapidly within 24 hours of landfall.

Code: Select all

           |     6    |     8    |    10    |    12    |    14    |    16    |    18    |
Tampa      |  3PM Tue |  4PM Mon |  3AM Mon |  5PM Sun | 11AM Sun |  6AM Sun |  2AM Sun |
Miami      |  7AM Tue | 10AM Mon | 10PM Sun |  1PM Sun |  7AM Sun |  3AM Sun | 11PM Sat |
Fort Myers |  4AM Tue |  8AM Mon |  8PM Sun | 12PM Sun |  6AM Sun |  2AM Sun | 10PM Sat |
Key West   | 10AM Mon |  6PM Sun |  9AM Sun |  3AM Sun | 10PM Sat |  7PM Sat |  4PM Sat |

In a relatively average scenario, travel conditions could become difficult for Fort Myers on the Gulf Coast earlier than Sunday.

[dixiebreeze]

Thanks, Sooner. I think this whole scenario will happen faster than anticipated.

[soonertwister]

I'm really concerned about the lack of understanding about the acceleration potential of this storm.

I just looked at some video from Havana, which is far away from the center of this storm, and they were absolutely getting hammered.

A Fox weather guy (no doubt from Accuweather) was saying alarming things about the latest forecast from NHC, like this could actually hit western Florida by mid-day on Monday as a category 2 hurricane.

What planet are these people on? Conservative calculations show that Wilma could hit Florida on Sunday. Has complacency set in just weeks after Katrina?

This just seems so unreal to me. I hope everything is OK, but I always consider the worst-case scenario. Maybe being from eastern Oklahoma has made me set in my ways, but you cannot play games with fire.

And if Wilma isn't fire, then name a hurricane that was. This is the most intense storm that has ever been measured in the Atlantic basin. I wouldn't exactly write her off as a minor event just yet.

[isobar]

I'm really concerned about the lack of understanding about the acceleration potential of this storm.

You are so totally right. Just because she's been crawling the last 3 days doesn't mean she isn't going to leave skid marks in the GOM once she catches the trough. Wind field will expand, circulation will become elongated, wx conditions will deteriorate way out ahead of the core.

[HurricaneQueen]

Thanks, Sooner:

That was an eye opener. While working almost nonstop to get things in order so we can leave, we haven't been in any rush thinking it will arrive sometime on Monday. Going to bed now as tomorrow will be a really full day. At least we have already checked into our motel but hadn't planned on staying there until Saturday night. Better rethink all our plans. Really appreciate that graphic.

Lynn

[cape_escape]

Thanks Sooner, I think many people her in Cape Coral, are trying to one write Wilma off, and two, feel safe at least until late Monday.

[Aslkahuna]

I've seen some unreal storm accelerations with typhoons in WPAC when they catch the jet off the coast of Japan. Ida in 1966 tore into Tokyo with a forward speed of over 50kt.

Steve

[TampaFl]

Interesting post, dixie.

I did a look at how quickly landfall could occur in various locations of Florida based upon average straight-line motion in miles per hour from Wilma's location at roughly 8PM EDT tonight, using even speeds from 6 to 18 miles per hour.

The results were illuminating. In the chart below, the top row of numbers is average storm speed from current position to listed city, the following rows show the cities and the approximate arrival times of the core of Wilma.

People should not forget that travel conditions can deteriorate rapidly within 24 hours of landfall.

Code: Select all

           |     6    |     8    |    10    |    12    |    14    |    16    |    18    |
Tampa      |  3PM Tue |  4PM Mon |  3AM Mon |  5PM Sun | 11AM Sun |  6AM Sun |  2AM Sun |
Miami      |  7AM Tue | 10AM Mon | 10PM Sun |  1PM Sun |  7AM Sun |  3AM Sun | 11PM Sat |
Fort Myers |  4AM Tue |  8AM Mon |  8PM Sun | 12PM Sun |  6AM Sun |  2AM Sun | 10PM Sat |
Key West   | 10AM Mon |  6PM Sun |  9AM Sun |  3AM Sun | 10PM Sat |  7PM Sat |  4PM Sat |

In a relatively average scenario, travel conditions could become difficult for Fort Myers on the Gulf Coast earlier than Sunday.

Great chart Soonertwister . Maybe we should keep this up front so once Wilma starts to make that ne turn and head for the West Coast people can "Look & Leave " if required IMHO, I think Wilma may catch some off guard with how quickly weather conditions will deteriate due to her large size and expanding wind field.


Robert