Tampa FL 30%

[tampaflwx]

Not trying to wishcast, bring unnecessary attention or anything of that matter, but I am honestly curious about the possibility of a Tampa landfall. I realize that only several models bring the storm close to Tampa, but if you look at the 4pm NHC statistical strike probabilities, they are incredibly high for this area.

KEY WEST FL X 16 12 X 28
MARCO ISLAND FL X 15 18 1 34
FT MYERS FL X 15 19 X 34
VENICE FL X 16 18 X 34
TAMPA FL X 8 21 1 30
CEDAR KEY FL X 3 17 2 22

That's even higher, statistically, than Key West....and only 4% off the much-expected SW FL landfall.

Any thoughts? Tampa is still in the cone, it currently has a Tropical Storm Watch, some of the models have indicated a *slight* northern shift, the cold front appears to have slowed down considerably...

Any thoughts?

[Canelaw99]

That's not the chance of a hit. If you look above that percent listing, it says:

"CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1PM CDT TUE OCT 25 2005"

NOT the chance of a hit.

[arkess7]

WATCH ..........WAIT.........AND SEE

[TheShrimper]

Right Canelaw, Whats the atmosphere like down there in Fl. City/ Homestead /

[Canelaw99]

Hey Shrimper - not sure...it seems pretty still out there and humid. That's about as much as I can tell because I'm not outside but I have the patio door open. It's been cloudy and gray all day though. How about your way???

[tronbunny]

That's not the chance of a hit. If you look above that percent listing, it says:

"CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1PM CDT TUE OCT 25 2005"

NOT the chance of a hit.

Just my view...
but I believe that one is "hit" by a hurricane when one is within it's hurricane force windfield.
Wilma's last windfield radius was 85 miles...
So if the storm came within 65 miles of Tampa, that could mean that they are "hit". (especially if they get hurricane force sustained winds)
Or is that logic totally flawed???

[Canelaw99]

to convert nautical miles to statute miles, you generally multiply by 1.15, so 65 naut. miles is about 75 stat. miles, and would be borderline with the 'cane windfield, especially on the northwestern side.

I'm not trying to split hairs, I'm just trying to show that the statistical probablities on the NHC site are not showing the probability of a direct hit.

[TheShrimper]

The same here, weatherwise. I was speaking in terms of the publics perception of the impending situation. Over here, the snow birds have arrived in full force and they are like a bunch of lemmings when there is any talk of deteriorating weather. If Joe Blow down the road feels the need to do something, they gotta do the same, whether they need to or not. Guess they just have to be part of the action. It couldn't be to stimulating up in Ohio or wherever they migrate from.

[Bellarose]

[quote="Canelaw99"]to convert nautical miles to statute miles, you generally multiply by 1.15, so 65 naut. miles is about 75 stat. miles, and would be borderline with the 'cane windfield, especially on the northwestern side. quote]

At the risk of sounding completely naive, this calculation is news to me. Thanks!

Bella

[Canelaw99]

LOL Shrimper - I hear ya. Most of the snowbirds haven't gotten back here yet so it isn't too bad. Most of the folks here in the condo area have the accordion shutters so they're able to close them pretty quickly. I did all my prep shopping earlier in the week so I haven't been out the last couple of days to gauge the reaction. I think we're all just ready for this thing to get here and get it oer with already.

[Canelaw99]

You're welcome bella - here's the link where I got it from:

http://www.boatsafe.com/nauticalknowhow/miles.htm

[Bellarose]

You're welcome bella - here's the link where I got it from:

http://www.boatsafe.com/nauticalknowhow/miles.htm

Sweet! Saved it to my favorites, just in case.....Thanks again!

Bella

[TheShrimper]

I heard that. Cant wait till the weekend of the 20th next month. Let's go racin'!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!.

[curtadams]

I'm not sure what the NHC probabilities are based on but they are NOT consistent with the cone. This came up with Rita where I estimated that the strike probabilities placed the chance of Rita landing outside the cone at over 50%. In general, the strike probabilities are much broader than the cone. I suspect they are an old formulation based on climatology, i.e. basically a CLIPER model. Hence they aren't very useful.

[Canelaw99]

You're welcome

[tampaflwx]

So then Tampa will effectively dodge the bullet again? How long will it be until this city truly gets the big one directly? Will we have to wait until Tampa becomes the next Manhattan?

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Pretty amazing what the storms have done to this state over the last 2 years. It should be a big tourist boom for Tampa! News has been nationally saying how Tampa continues to dodge the bullet and has come out unscathed! -where do you think the snowbirds are going to head this winter and for a few years to come if they think the rest of the state has been wiped out? -not to mention much of the gulf too.
-not that I wish bad on anybody else... but glad we've been spared here. My little island can always use the tourism dollars!

[jlauderdal]

Not trying to wishcast, bring unnecessary attention or anything of that matter, but I am honestly curious about the possibility of a Tampa landfall. I realize that only several models bring the storm close to Tampa, but if you look at the 4pm NHC statistical strike probabilities, they are incredibly high for this area.

KEY WEST FL X 16 12 X 28
MARCO ISLAND FL X 15 18 1 34
FT MYERS FL X 15 19 X 34
VENICE FL X 16 18 X 34
TAMPA FL X 8 21 1 30
CEDAR KEY FL X 3 17 2 22

That's even higher, statistically, than Key West....and only 4% off the much-expected SW FL landfall.

Any thoughts? Tampa is still in the cone, it currently has a Tropical Storm Watch, some of the models have indicated a *slight* northern shift, the cold front appears to have slowed down considerably...

Any thoughts?

i posted earlier tody to blow off the hurricane models from now this point forward on wilma and now i urge you to be careful with the percentages. a system can have artifically high numbers in a variety of ways including distance. lets say a hurrican is 40 miles from naples and heading straight at tampa from the sw guess which city has the higher number. good old jerry jarrell usedthat during irene on channel 6 as roland steadham was yelling, jerry irene is coming right at us on radar, lol.

[johngaltfla]

Pretty amazing what the storms have done to this state over the last 2 years. It should be a big tourist boom for Tampa! News has been nationally saying how Tampa continues to dodge the bullet and has come out unscathed! -where do you think the snowbirds are going to head this winter and for a few years to come if they think the rest of the state has been wiped out? -not to mention much of the gulf too.
-not that I wish bad on anybody else... but glad we've been spared here. My little island can always use the tourism dollars!

Only one word to remind you of what you're messing with:

KARMA

We've dodged the bullet for 130 years. And this storm and the models are a reminder that we're running out of luck. Remember a Cat 4 hitting in or north of Clearwater would devestate the entire Tampa Bay region.

[gtalum]

So then Tampa will effectively dodge the bullet again? How long will it be until this city truly gets the big one directly? Will we have to wait until Tampa becomes the next Manhattan?

I for one hope it doesn't happen in my lifetime.