Wilma Forecast Verification Discussion

[PhillyWX]

Initial Forecast wind speed at landfall: 100 mph (10/17)
Updated Forecast Wind Speed: 115 mph (3 AM)
Final Wind Speed: ~125 mph

Initial Forecast Landfall zone: Naples to Sarasota (10/18)
Revised Zone: Marco Island to Sanibel (Thursday)
Landall: Near Marco Island/Cape Romano

Initial Timing: Sunday PM - Early Monday AM (10/17)
1st Revised Timing: Sunday (Wednesday)
2nd Revised Timing: Monday AM (Friday PM)
Specific Landfall Timing: 6-10 AM Monday (Sunday AM)
Landfall Time: 6:15 AM

Initial Pressure: 955 mb (Tuesday)
Actual: ~ 950 mb

I underforecasted the wind speed at landfall based on the thinking that the wind shear would begin to impact the storm more dramatically before landfall than it actually did. While I did believe the storm would strengthen on Sunday from 100 to around 110, I believed that wind shear would negate any increase in wind speed during the day. This is where I busted on my forecast as Wilma's quicker movement and her staying JUST south of the belt of upper winds led to her staying stronger and using the upper level flow to create an outflow channel.

I was within 5 mb on pressure and did nail the landfall zone (just barely). I had timing down initially but revised based on Wilma's earlier movement in the Caribbean. When she slowed to a proverbial crawl/stall on the Yucutan coast during Friday PM, I revised my timing back to Monday AM (which verified). I called for a 6-10 AM landfall on Sunday AM and landfall started around 6:15 AM.

3:30 Update to reflect increase forecast in windspeed: http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com/2005/10/slightly-adjusted-wilma-forecast.html

[WxGuy1]

Any surface data/measurements of SUSTAINED Cat 3 winds? The strongest sustained winds I've seen have been around 90mph. I have seen gusts near 110mph, but the Saffir-Simpson scale is based on sustained winds. Not doubting Cat 3 status, since there's a lot of land where there aren't obs.

[Wirbelsturm]

Then what is your point?

[WxGuy1]

Then what is your point?

Just wondering if there is any verification of Cat 3 winds so far? Most stations lose power, etc, but I haven't seen any obs of cat 3 winds. Just woke up, so I haven't had a chance to cruise around, and I figured some of ya'll have been watching things more closely in the past 2-3 hours. No need for " "

[PhillyWX]

AFAIK, there were not any measurement stations in the immediate vicinity of Cape Romano. I might be wrong but I can't remember there being any.