The quote of the year

[cycloneye]

THE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON SEEMS
TO HAVE LITTLE INTEREST IN CLIMATOLOGY.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN


The above is a sentence from discussion about Emily that Forecaster Franklin wrote.And how true is what he said in July that now in late october is right on target.

[PTrackerLA]

I never thought we'd go through the whole list of storms in my lifetime. Now we're on the verge of hurricane Beta...this season is/was out of control and I hope seasons like this do not become the norm.

[thermos]

I never thought we'd go through the whole list of storms in my lifetime. Now we're on the verge of hurricane Beta...this season is/was out of control and I hope seasons like this do not become the norm.

I think they will. Next year will probably be similar. The ocean temps will be hot again. They are still hot now. Wouldn't be a surprise to see a December storm this year -- maybe even a January storm.

[HurricaneGirl]

Holy Crap!!

[dhweather]

January is out of the question. December, however, may very well happen.


Then again, 2005 spits in the face of climatology!

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Like I said before in another thread, since June (peak SSTA of +1.19 degrees Celcius...a record for the past 55 years), the SST anomalies have been slowly decreasing...with September ringing in at +0.86 degrees Celcius. I will be anxious to see the SSTA for October come out, as if it is lower (which I'm thinking it will be), this could be the beginning of a trend to more normalized SSTs, with a much less chance of having such an active season next year.

[terstorm1012]

I dunno Dr.Hurricane. We will see.

I posted awhile back a theory as to why our season was so "home grown" if you will . . . a major drought in Niger pushed a lot more dust out into the East Central Atlantic, so protosystems were stifled until they got closer to North America.

I don't know if the drought is continuing in Niger or if it will (or has) spread to Mali or Chad, but if it is, we could see another homegrown season. We'll just have to wait and see.

[thermos]

September was the hottest month ever recorded for the world. 1st half of October was warm as well. If winter keeps starting later and ending earlier then the tropics wil begin earlier and end later.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

September was the hottest month ever recorded for the world. 1st half of October was warm as well. If winter keeps starting later and ending earlier then the tropics wil begin earlier and end later.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Yes. More and more active tropics until the ice caps melt and
plunge us into an ice age. Until then, I expect the tropics to get
worse and worse during the RESPECTIVE active cycles. In passive
cycles we will get some rest...but until the end of this active cycle,
I expect some nasty seasons.

Speaking of global climatology, aren't there indications of
a major storm outbreak during a past period of global warmth?

The earth lives on a homeostasis. Any additional heat whether
natural or not prompts earth's active atmosphere to favor
massive storm formation to mitigate the severity of excess heat.

[Taffy]

I am not smart about Ice ages.. so I am gonna ask.... if the polar ice caps Melt........ how does that throw us into an Ice age? What happens to cause an Ice Age to begine with? I thought the planet was getting hotter, not colder?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I am not smart about Ice ages.. so I am gonna ask.... if the polar ice caps Melt........ how does that throw us into an Ice age? What happens to cause an Ice Age to begine with? I thought the planet was getting hotter, not colder?

Has something to do with shutting down to gulfstream...

Be awesome if someone can elaborate- I am not sure of the
reasoning behind it...but I remember some proposition a while
back that read along these lines...

[Taffy]

OOOOOOOOOOHHHH { lightbulb goes off in my head } I get it now. Makes sense to me. Yes, I wish someone would get into more detail.

[WxGuy1]

I am not smart about Ice ages.. so I am gonna ask.... if the polar ice caps Melt........ how does that throw us into an Ice age? What happens to cause an Ice Age to begine with? I thought the planet was getting hotter, not colder?

Has something to do with shutting down to gulfstream...

Be awesome if someone can elaborate- I am not sure of the
reasoning behind it...but I remember some proposition a while
back that read along these lines...

I'm not entirely sure I understand the logic of melted icecaps leading to an ice age. Ice ages or warm periods (we're in more of an ice age than a warm period now, btw) are often the results of many feedback processes. For example, suppose, for whatever reason, the northern hemisphere experiences a time of above-average snowfall, and thus the snowpack then sticks around longer in the spring. Since snow has a higher albedo than bare ground, more incoming solar radiation is reflected back out, leading to lower surface temperatures. These lower surface temperatures aid in keeping the snowpack around longer, and resulting in more snowfall farther south. This, in term, leads to higher albedos, more radiation reflection, and cooler temps, and so on. Such a cycle can happen naturally, with slow changes in the sun's total radiative output, small changes in the earth's orbit, etc, or it can be precipitated by natural events, such as volcanic explosions or meteoric impacts. Of course, we don't know how increased greenhouse gases (natural and anthropogenic) will effect such cycle transitions.

Regardless, if all the ice caps melt, there will be a large influx of cool water into the global ocean circulation. However, given the massive amount of ocean water that may be warming, I'm not sure how much of an impact melted glaciers would have.

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

I'm not a doctor, but I play one on the Internet...

Basically the Gulf Stream is powered by sinking water. Colder, denser water up near Iceland sinks below the surface, and is replaced at the surface by warmer water from farther south. This motion in the ocean is then fed by the rotation of the earth, so you end up with warm water coming up the western Atlantic from the Caribbean to replace cold water sinking up by Iceland, which is then pushed back down towards the tropics in the eastern Atlantic. Most oceans have a similar pattern of currents, but the Gulf Stream is probably the most important to global weather, or at least to regional weather in regions that the Western media is interested in. Because of the influx of warm tropical moisture riding the Gulf Stream, northwestern Europe is not nearly as cold as Siberia or Canada, which both sit at the same latitude.

If you dump alot of cold freshwater into the northern Atlantic from melting icecaps off Greenland, the whole system will basically shut down, and northern Europe will freeze. I don't know what would end up happening to SSTs down here in the tropics and the GOM.

[ChaserUK]

I'm not a doctor, but I play one on the Internet...

Basically the Gulf Stream is powered by sinking water. Colder, denser water up near Iceland sinks below the surface, and is replaced at the surface by warmer water from farther south. This motion in the ocean is then fed by the rotation of the earth, so you end up with warm water coming up the western Atlantic from the Caribbean to replace cold water sinking up by Iceland, which is then pushed back down towards the tropics in the eastern Atlantic. Most oceans have a similar pattern of currents, but the Gulf Stream is probably the most important to global weather, or at least to regional weather in regions that the Western media is interested in. Because of the influx of warm tropical moisture riding the Gulf Stream, northwestern Europe is not nearly as cold as Siberia or Canada, which both sit at the same latitude.

If you dump alot of cold freshwater into the northern Atlantic from melting icecaps off Greenland, the whole system will basically shut down, and northern Europe will freeze. I don't know what would end up happening to SSTs down here in the tropics and the GOM.

I guess SST's would get even higher than this year. There would be nothing to carry off the excess heated water basically.

[Taffy]

neat... and something to ponder.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

neat... and something to ponder.

And also a formidable possibility if the higher SSTs- which
promote high pressure (sinking air) and reduced shear- continue in 2006...which might help explain the unusually strong high-pressures
in late season (October 2005).

[cycloneye]

January is out of the question. December, however, may very well happen.


Then again, 2005 spits in the face of climatology!

Nothing will surprise me if something forms in December or January.

[feederband]

January is out of the question. December, however, may very well happen.


Then again, 2005 spits in the face of climatology!

Nothing will surprise me if something forms in December or January.

January???? We already talking about the 2006 season..

[fci]

THE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON SEEMS
TO HAVE LITTLE INTEREST IN CLIMATOLOGY.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN


The above is a sentence from discussion about Emily that Forecaster Franklin wrote.And how true is what he said in July that now in late october is right on target.

Remember about a gazillion storms ago how we laughed about forecaster "Franklin" writing the discussion on "Franklin"??

Seems like years ago, we are getting so weary of this hurricane season....