Early Tropical Research Averages

[Jim Hughes]

The media, as well as many forum members, have been questioning whether the recent surge in the Atlantic tropical activity is being caused or influenced by global warming.

I will not go there right now but allot of people already know how I feel about the possible space weather influence.

I am still in the midst of gathering some data along with my thoughts about certain possible relationships but I felt like sharing these numbers in case I get sidetracked for any length of time. I looked at certain variables to come up with these numbers.

I also realize that the forum traffic is currently beginning to slow down. So some people may want to check back in during the next week or so.

Here are some rough averages that I came up with during a segment of my research.

Named storms - 14.6

Hurricanes - 8.75

Major Hurricanes - 4

Landfall's - 5.9 (USA & Canada only)

GOM Landfall's'- 3.3 (Mexico excluded)

Hurricane Landfall's - 3.25 (USA & Canada)

Major Landfall's - 2 (USA & Canada)




Jim

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Despite the fact that I am big on global warming, I am certainly
not going to rule out space weather influence.

In fact, I think that space weather and space activity is an interesting
and important part to tropical weather studies, so I eagerly
await your updates Jim.

[terstorm1012]

I do too...Jim's correlations between solar flares and 'cane rapid strengthing (Katrina, then again with Rita) showed me there was something there.

Write a paper Jim!

[WxGuy1]

I'm not sure how space weather events could significantly impact sensible weather on Earth (well, "space weather" that we see now -- not like meteor impacts or something LOL). I'm not sure how the Ionosphere affects vertical motions, moisture, and static and convective stability in the troposphere. Perhaps there's some unknown non-linear response with space weather, but I'm currently having trouble trying to understand how the physics behind such a relationship (between sapce weather and sensible weather at the surface). That said, I remain open to the idea, if you can convince me.

[WindRunner]

In fact, I think that space weather and space activity is an interesting
and important part to tropical weather studies, so I eagerly
await your updates Jim.

You're not the only that awaits these posts.

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

So if, during this new 20-30-year-cycle of hurricane activity, we've averaged 15 tropical storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and a category five every other year...why are we still grading seasons like 2005 based on climatological averages from the 1970-1990 time period? The 30-year average is 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2-3 major hurricanes.

[Jim Hughes]

I'm not sure how space weather events could significantly impact sensible weather on Earth (well, "space weather" that we see now -- not like meteor impacts or something LOL). I'm not sure how the Ionosphere affects vertical motions, moisture, and static and convective stability in the troposphere. Perhaps there's some unknown non-linear response with space weather, but I'm currently having trouble trying to understand how the physics behind such a relationship (between sapce weather and sensible weather at the surface). That said, I remain open to the idea, if you can convince me.

I would like to clarify something.

I only mentioned global warming and the possible space weather connection to it because some recent posts have been hinting at it's connection with the tropical increase recently.

I have been looking over many things the past several weeks regarding possible atmospheric relationships with space weather. The ENSO and AMO are just two examples. The latter research is somewhat new to me because I have looked into the ENSO relationship for years now.

The above numbers are not just space weather related. I use to research teleconnection influences before I became more knowledgeable of space weather. So I still look into them and other parts of the atmosphere as well.


Jim