Low to form near Yucatan?
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- PTrackerLA
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Low to form near Yucatan?
Here is an excerpt from the NWS Lake Charles forecast discussion:
THE NEXT QUESTIONABLE SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR AREA ACCORDING TO THE GFS
IS A LOW THAT FORMS OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MOVES NORTHWARD...
BRINGING PRECIP INTO OUR AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. THE NOGAPS MODEL
DEVELOPS SOMETHING IN THE SAME AREA AS WELL...BUT APPEARS TO BE MORE
OF A BROAD TROUGH THAN A CLOSED LOW. THE NOGAPS ALSO TAKES THIS
FEATURE AND MOVES IT FURTHER EAST THAN THE GFS...WITH THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP OCCURRING IN NORTHERN FLORIDA. NONETHELESS...WILL LEAVE SCT
POPS IN THE FCST FOR MONDAY...BUT IF IT APPEARS THAT THE GFS IS
BACKING OFF AT ALL ON THIS FEATURE BY TOMORROW...WILL MOST LIKELY GO
WITH THE NOGAPS SOLUTION AFTERWARDS.
Has anyone else seen or heard anymore about this? Could be something to watch for this weekend.
THE NEXT QUESTIONABLE SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR AREA ACCORDING TO THE GFS
IS A LOW THAT FORMS OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MOVES NORTHWARD...
BRINGING PRECIP INTO OUR AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. THE NOGAPS MODEL
DEVELOPS SOMETHING IN THE SAME AREA AS WELL...BUT APPEARS TO BE MORE
OF A BROAD TROUGH THAN A CLOSED LOW. THE NOGAPS ALSO TAKES THIS
FEATURE AND MOVES IT FURTHER EAST THAN THE GFS...WITH THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP OCCURRING IN NORTHERN FLORIDA. NONETHELESS...WILL LEAVE SCT
POPS IN THE FCST FOR MONDAY...BUT IF IT APPEARS THAT THE GFS IS
BACKING OFF AT ALL ON THIS FEATURE BY TOMORROW...WILL MOST LIKELY GO
WITH THE NOGAPS SOLUTION AFTERWARDS.
Has anyone else seen or heard anymore about this? Could be something to watch for this weekend.
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These maps will be interesting to monitor... Current pressure and current 3 hour pressure trends and wind shear, upper level divergence and 850mb theta-e information:
Shear is relatively high, around 30 knots and basically showing signs of decreasing before the trough moves toward the area of interest from the northwest will increase it once again.
Upper level divergence has remained higher than average over the last 18 to 24 hours.
8:00 AM EDT 850mb theta-e values are running at 336 K to 342 K.


Shear is relatively high, around 30 knots and basically showing signs of decreasing before the trough moves toward the area of interest from the northwest will increase it once again.
Upper level divergence has remained higher than average over the last 18 to 24 hours.
8:00 AM EDT 850mb theta-e values are running at 336 K to 342 K.
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- *StOrmsPr*
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Well,
The GFS is the only model ever to initialize a 916mb category 5 hurricane (Kenna last year) as an 1008mb tropical low. Also, it has a habit on spinning up many phantom canes. Not good at all for TC genesis. Not to mention that it always turns E Atlantic systems through a strong ridge of high pressure, which is impossible physically
The GFS is the only model ever to initialize a 916mb category 5 hurricane (Kenna last year) as an 1008mb tropical low. Also, it has a habit on spinning up many phantom canes. Not good at all for TC genesis. Not to mention that it always turns E Atlantic systems through a strong ridge of high pressure, which is impossible physically
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- *StOrmsPr*
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- PTrackerLA
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- wx247
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11:30 update from the NHC says conditions will become more favorable for this wave in the next day or so.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- PTrackerLA
- Category 5
- Posts: 5277
- Age: 41
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
- Location: Lafayette, LA
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