Low to form near Yucatan?

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PTrackerLA
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Low to form near Yucatan?

#1 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Jun 25, 2003 3:39 pm

Here is an excerpt from the NWS Lake Charles forecast discussion:


THE NEXT QUESTIONABLE SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR AREA ACCORDING TO THE GFS
IS A LOW THAT FORMS OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MOVES NORTHWARD...
BRINGING PRECIP INTO OUR AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. THE NOGAPS MODEL
DEVELOPS SOMETHING IN THE SAME AREA AS WELL...BUT APPEARS TO BE MORE
OF A BROAD TROUGH THAN A CLOSED LOW. THE NOGAPS ALSO TAKES THIS
FEATURE AND MOVES IT FURTHER EAST THAN THE GFS...WITH THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP OCCURRING IN NORTHERN FLORIDA. NONETHELESS...WILL LEAVE SCT
POPS IN THE FCST FOR MONDAY...BUT IF IT APPEARS THAT THE GFS IS
BACKING OFF AT ALL ON THIS FEATURE BY TOMORROW...WILL MOST LIKELY GO
WITH THE NOGAPS SOLUTION AFTERWARDS.

Has anyone else seen or heard anymore about this? Could be something to watch for this weekend.
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Guest

#2 Postby Guest » Wed Jun 25, 2003 3:59 pm

Our local mets have been alluding to something coming up from the GOM. This just might be it PTracker. No comments from our normally vocal group of posters?

Hmmmmm.

Patricia
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ColdFront77

#3 Postby ColdFront77 » Wed Jun 25, 2003 4:13 pm

These maps will be interesting to monitor... Current pressure and current 3 hour pressure trends and wind shear, upper level divergence and 850mb theta-e information:

Image

Image


Shear is relatively high, around 30 knots and basically showing signs of decreasing before the trough moves toward the area of interest from the northwest will increase it once again.

Upper level divergence has remained higher than average over the last 18 to 24 hours.

8:00 AM EDT 850mb theta-e values are running at 336 K to 342 K.
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Anonymous

#4 Postby Anonymous » Wed Jun 25, 2003 5:00 pm

The models are showing a low forming along the wave we've been monitoring. They're talking about the same disturbance.
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#5 Postby Steve H. » Wed Jun 25, 2003 5:30 pm

Again, looked at the thunderstorms building in the NW Caribbean. There is cyclonic turning in the cloud field to the NE of the Nic/Hon border. But we saw a similar situation with the last one. We'll be watching. Cheers!!
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Derek Ortt

#6 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Jun 25, 2003 6:41 pm

One tip, never trust the GFS
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#7 Postby *StOrmsPr* » Wed Jun 25, 2003 7:09 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:One tip, never trust the GFS



Why Derek?
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Derek Ortt

#8 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Jun 25, 2003 7:13 pm

Well,

The GFS is the only model ever to initialize a 916mb category 5 hurricane (Kenna last year) as an 1008mb tropical low. Also, it has a habit on spinning up many phantom canes. Not good at all for TC genesis. Not to mention that it always turns E Atlantic systems through a strong ridge of high pressure, which is impossible physically
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#9 Postby *StOrmsPr* » Wed Jun 25, 2003 7:18 pm

OK then!! thanks for the response Derek!

just want to know why you said that!


and wich model you think is the best??
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#10 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Jun 25, 2003 8:42 pm

Could be really wet next week for someone along the Gulf Coast. It would be nice to see a *weak* TC in the Gulf, it's really exciting to see and us GOM'ers just go crazy!
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Derek Ortt

#11 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Jun 25, 2003 8:53 pm

I trust the UKMET more than any as it has tended to initialize systems the most representative of the real atmosphere
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Rainband

#12 Postby Rainband » Thu Jun 26, 2003 8:28 am

PTrackerLA wrote:Could be really wet next week for someone along the Gulf Coast. It would be nice to see a *weak* TC in the Gulf, it's really exciting to see and us GOM'ers just go crazy!
West Florida doesn't area!!!! :o NO MORE RAIN!!!!!!!! for a while :wink:
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#13 Postby bfez1 » Thu Jun 26, 2003 8:35 am

Local mets here are also hinting that we have to watch the GOM over the next few days, too. Could be an interesting weekend afterall, (weather wise that is) :lol:
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#14 Postby Amanzi » Thu Jun 26, 2003 1:40 pm

HMMM something to keep an eye on for sure :o
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#15 Postby wx247 » Thu Jun 26, 2003 4:14 pm

11:30 update from the NHC says conditions will become more favorable for this wave in the next day or so.
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#16 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Jun 26, 2003 4:34 pm

It looks like there might be a mid-level circulation with all the convection down there. This weekend could be very interesting indeed!
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Rainband

#17 Postby Rainband » Thu Jun 26, 2003 4:36 pm

bfez1 wrote:Local mets here are also hinting that we have to watch the GOM over the next few days, too. Could be an interesting weekend afterall, (weather wise that is) :lol:
Yeah ours are too.. Guess we will see in a few days!
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