http://www.independentwx.com/Archives/TD3E/Update1.html
Tropical Depression Three-E IWIC Update #1
9:00 AM EDT Thursday, June 26 2003
This is an unofficial product, and is NOT from the National Hurricane Center.
Currently, the center of TD3E is located near 14.5N 98.3W, or about 185 miles SSE of Acapulco Mexico. It has been nearly stationary over the past 12 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 30KT, with a minimum central pressure estimated to be 1006MB.
Infrared satellite imagery shows the depression is slowly gaining intensity. Convection is refiring over the center, and banding features are becoming more prominent except for in the northern quadrant (due to interaction with the mountainous terrain of Mexico). A lot of the models are in agreement with the shear pattern abaiting over the next day or so, which would put the system in a rather favorable environment for strengthening. With an anticipated reduction in shear, SSTs being plenty warm, and the air relatively unstable, I have no choice but to forecast strengthening. The only obvious inhibitor is land, which was taken in account for the verifiable intensity forecast. If the storm moves closer to land than expected, it may not become a hurricane like I'm forecasting. Alternatively, if it stays further to the left, and tracks on a slower track, then it could easily get stronger than 65KT.
The future track of this storm depends largely on the anticyclone over Mexico. The further west it moves, the further west the system tracks. At the moment, the anticyclone is in a position to steer TD3E to the WNW through the forecast period, parallel to the Mexican coastline. The speed will likely be slow, judging by the distance between the anticyclone and storm. It should be noted that in any case, it will spread heavy rainfall over Mexico. Flash flooding is a distinct possibility, especially if it stays close to the coast.
Intensity Forecast
INITIAL: 30KT
12HR: 35KT
24HR: 45KT
36HR: 55KT
48HR: 65KT
72HR: 65KT
Track Forecast
Note, I will be out for the next 3-4 days, so TWW will try to continue these updates on our site.